261 Fox Hill Rd · Northville, NY 12134

$189,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,340 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1875 0.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

SINGLE FAMILY ON .46 ACRE , DETACHED GARAGE, NEW KITCHEN AND BATH -- Very Good Condition

Key facts

• Private lot
• Newer roof
• New hot water heater

Tags

• ELEVATED LOT
• PRIVATE LOT
• LEVEL FLOORS
• NEWER ROOF
• FRESHLY PAINTED OUTSIDE
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.46 acre (dimensions ~100 x 198 x 100 x 198); Lot features include level areas, road frontage, sloped areas, views, wooded and cleared sections

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with stone parking area; Total parking for 5 vehicles; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Fixer condition; Block foundation; Wood siding construction
• Construction: Metal and shingle (asphalt) roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Enclosed porch/sun room; Deck; Other exterior features; Garage(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Cooktop; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor; One additional room on the second floor (other)
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Oil heating
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceramic tile bath; Wood burning stove
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $504 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $186k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 2.9% in Northville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#759 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Edinburg Common School District (rural): math 20% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #739 of 755 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $189k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1875 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $186,165 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1875 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.43%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $134,936
• Equity at exit: $170,266

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.03×
• Total profit: $371,946
• Equity at exit: $367,185

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12134

• Home prices YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,041 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $461/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $504

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,403

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $611	-5% $557	+0% $504	+5% $450	+10% $397
Rent	-10% $343	-5% $423	+0% $504	+5% $584	+10% $665
Rate	-1.0pp $599	-0.5pp $552	base $504	+0.5pp $455	+1.0pp $405

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $189,000 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-05-03
   listed $189,000 Active 606-char remark
3. 2025-08-16
   historical
4. 2025-07-16
   price $182,000
5. 2025-06-30
   price $186,000
6. 2025-06-10
   price $190,000
7. 2025-05-08
   price $199,000
8. 2025-04-15
   price $204,000
9. 2025-03-12
   price $209,000
10. 2025-01-28
    price $214,000
11. 2024-11-21
    listed $219,000 Active
12. 2024-11-13
    soldstatus $105,000
13. 2006-09-25
    soldstatus $73,728

    Show marketing remark (88 chars)

    SINGLE FAMILY ON .46 ACRE , DETACHED GARAGE, NEW KITCHEN AND BATH -- Very Good Condition

14. 2006-08-17
    historical

    Show marketing remark (88 chars)

    SINGLE FAMILY ON .46 ACRE , DETACHED GARAGE, NEW KITCHEN AND BATH -- Very Good Condition

15. 2006-06-26
    listed $69,555

    Show marketing remark (88 chars)

    SINGLE FAMILY ON .46 ACRE , DETACHED GARAGE, NEW KITCHEN AND BATH -- Very Good Condition

16. 2002-07-08
    soldstatus $66,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $461 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,827 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,367/yr (+$114/mo · 296.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,489
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$461
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,959
• − Management: −$1,959
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $3,080
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$739
• After-tax cash flow: $5,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edinburg Common School District
• NCES district ID: 3610230
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $52,251
• Composite: 25.29/100
• National rank: #12897
• State rank: #739 of 755 in NY

Livability — Northville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #759
• US rank: #14567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,093

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 6%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.95%
• Current HPI: 358.0334
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+184.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-05-03 Listed $189,000 Global MLS
• 2025-08-16 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $182,000 Global MLS
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $186,000 Global MLS
• 2025-06-10 Price Changed $190,000 Global MLS
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $199,000 Global MLS
• 2025-04-15 Price Changed $204,000 Global MLS
• 2025-03-12 Price Changed $209,000 Global MLS
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $214,000 Global MLS
• 2024-11-21 Listed $219,000 Global MLS
• 2024-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2006-09-25 Sold (MLS) $73,728 Global MLS
• 2006-08-17 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2006-06-26 Listed $69,555 Global MLS
• 2002-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $66,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $461 · -64.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.