413 N 4th St · Murray, KY 42071

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 968 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1940 8,276 sqft lot Est $131k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home is located in commercial area. Has always been used up until now as single family residential. Will need updating to heat/air, windows and electrical. So much potential. Room to put parking in back.

Key facts

• Room to put parking
• Updating to windows
• Updating to heat air

Tags

• SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL
• UPDATING TO HEAT AIR
• UPDATING TO WINDOWS
• UPDATING TO ELECTRICAL
• ROOM TO PUT PARKING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; 1-story
• Construction: Frame, Masonite and wood siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Space heater; Window air unit(s); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Storm windows; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($947 rent vs $75k).
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.6% in Murray — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#380 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Murray Independent (town): math 58% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #5 of 165 in KY (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 256 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 81 units permitted in Calloway County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Calloway County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.15%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $130,680
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
413 N 4th St	0.00mi	2/1.0	968 (0%)	0mo	$50,000	$52	100
319 N 5th St	0.11mi	2/2.0	960 (-1%)	2mo	$150,000	$156	87
416 N 5th St	0.03mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,050 (+8%)	14mo	$22,500	$21	68
505 N 5th St	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,020 (+5%)	16mo	$26,000	$25	65
114 N 7th St	0.32mi	2/1.0	868 (-10%)	8mo	$122,000	$141	62
901 Olive St	0.53mi	2/1.0	917 (-5%)	13mo	$161,000	$176	56
1004 Payne St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (+12%)	17mo	$145,000	$134	34
1007 Payne St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,088 (+12%)	10mo	$147,000	$135	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $6,671
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $43,316
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42071

• Home prices YoY: -8.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $947 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $282	-5% $256	+0% $230	+5% $204	+10% $178
Rent	-10% $155	-5% $193	+0% $230	+5% $268	+10% $305
Rate	-1.0pp $268	-0.5pp $249	base $230	+0.5pp $211	+1.0pp $191

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
904 Coldwater Rd #9 Murray, KY	2.0	1.0	650	$795	$1.22	44d	1	1.45mi
1611 Campbell St Unit 1713-D Murray, KY	1.0	1.0	650	$695	$1.07	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-15
   listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,369
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$910
• − Management: −$910
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $1,667
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$400
• After-tax cash flow: $2,362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Murray Independent
• NCES district ID: 2104380
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $37,625
• Composite: 50.29/100
• National rank: #1882
• State rank: #5 of 165 in KY

Livability — Murray

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #380
• US rank: #18091

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Murray, KY
• County: Calloway County · 30,981 people
• City population: 30,981
• Metro: Murray, KY
• Population (ZIP): 30,981
• Household income: $50,198
• Rent vs Own: 40.0% rent · 60.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1046.0

Population outlook (Calloway County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,071 people
• By 2030: 42,608 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 45,435 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 48,501 · +18.1%
• By 2075: 56,481 · +37.5%
• By 2100: 63,271 · +54.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Calloway

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 30.2% · R 68.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+31.8 2016: R+35.0 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.43%
• Current HPI: 274.5366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.18%
• Metro: Murray, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — WKRMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $75,000 WKRMLS

Property tax history

-13.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $30 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.