103 Hub Dr · Mission, TX 78574

$150,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,816 sqft · Manufactured public records · 283 Days on market

Built 1985 9,750 sqft lot $83/sqft · 32% above area Est $130k · 15% over $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Wagon City, a lively 55+ community in Mission! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers 2068 sqft of well-maintained space, perfect for comfort and convenience. The bright, inviting interior is ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Wagon City is known for its friendly vibe and wide range of resident activities. Plus, you'll be minutes from shopping at H-E-B, Walmart, CVS, Ross, and Starbucks. ADA Accessible and recently replaced roof !

Key facts

• 9,750 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 283 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 283 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.42%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $129,900
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: 15.47%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2906 Spur Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,868 (+3%)	11mo	$169,000	$90	79
209 Buckboard Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,568 (-14%)	3mo	$85,000	$54	66
108 Covered Wagon Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (-9%)	14mo	$99,000	$60	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-7,681
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $14,939
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78574

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$235 /mo · $2,825/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,421

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $345	-5% $302	+0% $260	+5% $217	+10% $175
Rent	-10% $122	-5% $191	+0% $260	+5% $329	+10% $398
Rate	-1.0pp $335	-0.5pp $298	base $260	+0.5pp $221	+1.0pp $181

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
607 Alameda Dr Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1731	$2,200	$1.27	45d	1	0.47mi
3209 Black Oak Ln Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1672	$1,700	$1.02	15d	1	0.50mi
702 W 25th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,650	$1.20	20d	1	0.62mi
2002 Thornton St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,300	$0.95	44d	1	0.86mi
1827 Highland Park Ave Unit 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	44d	1	1.22mi
221 W 14th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,100	$0.85	44d	1	1.24mi
2216 Robyn Ln Mission, TX	3.0	3.0	2033	$2,000	$0.98	22d	1	1.29mi
1707 Highland Park Ave Unit 4-B Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1336	$1,200	$0.90	15d	1	1.29mi
3006 Gabriel St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,600	$1.12	44d	1	1.36mi
3102 Gabriel St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,800	$1.31	44d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $150,000 Pending 283 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 283 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 282 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $150,000 Active 278 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Active 277 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active 276 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active 275 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active 274 DOM
9. 2026-02-18
   price $150,000 458-char remark

   Show marketing remark (458 chars)

   Welcome to Wagon City, a lively 55+ community in Mission! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers 2068 sqft of well-maintained space, perfect for comfort and convenience. The bright, inviting interior is ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Wagon City is known for its friendly vibe and wide range of resident activities. Plus, you'll be minutes from shopping at H-E-B, Walmart, CVS, Ross, and Starbucks. ADA Accessible and recently replaced roof !

10. 2025-10-21
    price $170,000 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Welcome to Wagon City, a lively 55+ community in Mission! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers 2068 sqft of well-maintained space, perfect for comfort and convenience. The bright, inviting interior is ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Wagon City is known for its friendly vibe and wide range of resident activities. Plus, you'll be minutes from shopping at H-E-B, Walmart, CVS, Ross, and Starbucks. ADA Accessible and recently replaced roof !

11. 2025-08-26
    listed $190,000 Active 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Welcome to Wagon City, a lively 55+ community in Mission! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offers 2068 sqft of well-maintained space, perfect for comfort and convenience. The bright, inviting interior is ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Wagon City is known for its friendly vibe and wide range of resident activities. Plus, you'll be minutes from shopping at H-E-B, Walmart, CVS, Ross, and Starbucks. ADA Accessible and recently replaced roof !

12. 2024-10-30
    soldstatus
13. 2024-10-30
    soldstatus
14. 1991-04-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,825 · $235/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,825 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,997
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,825
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $841
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$202
• After-tax cash flow: $2,916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mission CISD
• NCES district ID: 4831040
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $32,855
• Composite: 17.47/100
• National rank: #9061
• State rank: #775 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 78,024
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,456
• Household income: $52,393
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 62% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 93%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 87%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 230.3323
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $150,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $170,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-08-26 Listed $190,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-10-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-10-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,825 · +50.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.