413 Speights Loop Rd · Anahuac, TX 77560

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 340 Days on market

Built 1989 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Needs work. With a little work this place could be nice. 3/2/0 on a nice lot.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1989

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $400 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.5% vs local median 3.9% in Anahuac — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#365 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Anahuac ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #373 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Anahuac Middle (math 52% / reading 46%, grade C-, #378 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 326 students, 61% FRL); Anahuac H S (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 454 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $599 appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 340 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 340 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.22%
• DSCR: 3.10
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,560
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
124 Speights Rd	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,480 (-0%)	16mo	$178,000	$120	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.8% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $26,411
• Equity at exit: $24,819

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.34×
• Total profit: $70,132
• Equity at exit: $32,383

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77560

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,702 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,196

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2025-06-24
   status Pending
2. 2025-01-15
   status Pending
3. 2024-12-01
   price $75,000
4. 2024-12-01
   status Active
5. 2024-09-20
   status Pending
6. 2024-09-13
   status Option Pending
7. 2024-06-01
   status Active
8. 2024-05-31
   historical
9. 2024-05-15
   price $79,900
10. 2024-05-11
    price $84,900
11. 2024-01-23
    price $89,900
12. 2023-11-23
    listed $99,900 Active
13. 2014-08-06
    soldstatus
14. 2014-01-01
    historical
15. 2013-04-19
    listed $83,750
16. 2012-04-27
    soldstatus
17. 2012-04-20
    soldstatus 77-char remark

    Show marketing remark (77 chars)

    Needs work. With a little work this place could be nice. 3/2/0 on a nice lot.

18. 2012-04-12
    historical 77-char remark

    Show marketing remark (77 chars)

    Needs work. With a little work this place could be nice. 3/2/0 on a nice lot.

19. 2011-12-02
    listed $35,000 77-char remark

    Show marketing remark (77 chars)

    Needs work. With a little work this place could be nice. 3/2/0 on a nice lot.

20. 1996-02-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$5,494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,634
• − Management: −$1,634
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $4,155
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$997
• After-tax cash flow: $3,800/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anahuac ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808190
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,714
• Composite: 35.02/100
• National rank: #5043
• State rank: #373 of 826 in TX

Livability — Anahuac

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #365
• US rank: #7791

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,095

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.80%
• Current HPI: 97.7497
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+114.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-01-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-12-01 Price Changed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-09-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-09-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-06-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-05-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-05-15 Price Changed $79,900 HARMLS
• 2024-05-11 Price Changed $84,900 HARMLS
• 2024-01-23 Price Changed $89,900 HARMLS
• 2023-11-23 Listed $99,900 HARMLS
• 2014-08-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-01-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2013-04-19 Listed $83,750 HARMLS
• 2012-04-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-04-20 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-04-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-12-02 Listed $35,000 HARMLS
• 1996-02-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,142 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.