1804 3rd St · Waubun, MN 56589

$145,400

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily · 41 Days on market

Built 1975

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bed 1 bath rambler home on full city lot. Natural gas and city services. Quiet side of town.

Key facts

• City services
• Quiet side of town
• Natural gas

Tags

• NATURAL GAS
• CITY SERVICES
• QUIET SIDE OF TOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $102k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#744 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Waubun-Ogema-White Earth Public Schools (rural): math 19% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #281 of 301 in MN (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ogema Elementary (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #779 of 857 statewide, top 91%, 279 students, 74% FRL); Waubun Elementary (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #204 of 258 statewide, top 80%, 172 students, 76% FRL); Waubun Secondary (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #369 of 471 statewide, top 79%, 241 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Mahnomen County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $145k implies a 182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,048 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.28%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $72,055
• Equity at exit: $130,988

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.35×
• Total profit: $217,695
• Equity at exit: $282,480

Cash invested: $40,712 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56589

• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,020 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$762
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,134/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $-111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,161

Max offer price $125,721

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-29	-5% $-70	+0% $-111	+5% $-153	+10% $-194
Rent	-10% $-192	-5% $-152	+0% $-111	+5% $-71	+10% $-31
Rate	-1.0pp $-38	-0.5pp $-74	base $-111	+0.5pp $-149	+1.0pp $-187

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,350
• Closing costs: $4,362
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $145,400 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,400 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,400 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,400 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,400 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,400 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,400 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,400 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $145,400 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $145,400 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,400 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,400 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,400 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $145,400 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,400 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,400 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,400 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,400 Active 18 DOM
19. 2026-05-12
    listed $145,400 Active
20. 2017-08-21
    soldstatus $51,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,134 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,381 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$247/yr (+$21/mo · 21.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,145
• − Property taxes: −$1,134
• − Insurance: −$727
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$980
• − Management: −$980
• − Depreciation: −$4,230
• Taxable loss: −$3,949
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$948
• After-tax cash flow: $-389/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waubun-Ogema-White Earth Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2742120
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $41,853
• Composite: 21.64/100
• National rank: #8287
• State rank: #281 of 301 in MN

Livability — Waubun

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #744
• US rank: #18219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waubun, MN
• Population (ZIP): 1,939

Population outlook (Mahnomen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,233 people
• By 2030: 5,133 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 4,967 · -5.1%
• By 2050: 4,822 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 4,539 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 4,317 · -17.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Native American 27% Two or more races 21%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 22% Lithuanian 4% Hungarian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mahnomen

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.7) · D 44.8% · R 53.5% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.0pp toward R · 2008: 25.3pp · 2024: -8.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.7 2020: R+1.3 2016: R+2.9 2012: D+18.6 2008: D+25.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.90%
• Current HPI: 272.1352
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+181.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $145,400 FSBO.com
• 2017-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $51,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,134 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.