70 Orchard Pl · Thornwood, NY 10594

$939,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2001 5,001 sqft lot Est $919k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Immaculate Center Hall Colonial built in 2002 with wood floors throughout and 4 bedrooms, 2 1/2 baths. Open floor plan on main level includes formal dining room, kitchen with breakfast area open to family room with marble fireplace, built in bookcases and sliders to patio. Second level features master bedroom with tray ceiling, walk-in closet and bathroom. Three additional bedrooms, one with vaulted ceiling and hall bathroom. Move in condition.

Key facts

• Slate patio
• Unfinished basement
• Clean two car garage

Tags

• OAK HARDWOOD FLOORS
• GAS FIREPLACE
• SLATE PATIO
• FULL ATTIC
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• CLEAN TWO CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking; Driveway; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electric service by Con-Edison; Public sewer; Trash collection (public)
• Home design: Single family residence; 2 stories; Property condition: Actual
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Block construction; Vinyl siding; Full basement; Attic with pull-down stairs
• Exterior features: Near public transit; Near schools; Near shops; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Two-story home with 7 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hydro air heating; Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; One fireplace
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Primary bathroom; Walk-in closet(s); Patio
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $939k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-309 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $884k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $818k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $818k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#389 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mount Pleasant Central School District (suburban): math 62% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #146 of 590 in NY (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Hawthorne Elementary School (460 students, 10% FRL); Westlake Middle School (math 55% / reading 61%, grade B, #184 of 729 statewide, top 25%, 429 students, 14% FRL); Westlake High School (math 72% / reading 95%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 547 students, 19% FRL).
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $565k; list at $939k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $818,393 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.41%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $919,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
500 Marietta Ave	0.42mi	4/4.0	2,451 (+2%)	10mo	$820,000	$335	60
2 Westerly Ln S	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,724 (+14%)	7mo	$1,410,000	$518	57
116 Rolling Hills Rd	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,133 (-11%)	6mo	$1,250,000	$586	55
113 Walter Ave	0.56mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,399 (-0%)	11mo	$998,500	$416	55
200 Central Ave	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,460 (+2%)	7mo	$1,351,000	$549	52
3 Rolling Hills Rd	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,278 (-5%)	6mo	$750,000	$329	50
14 Aspen Way	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,123 (-12%)	3mo	$800,000	$377	50
406 Warren Ave	0.44mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,736 (+14%)	7mo	$900,000	$329	45
55 Bainbridge Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,185 (-9%)	9mo	$965,000	$442	42
136 Edgewood Ave	0.69mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,625 (+9%)	4mo	$995,000	$379	40
7 Elsa Ave	0.66mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,060 (-14%)	3mo	$790,000	$383	34
328 Willis Ave	0.70mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,650 (+10%)	9mo	$790,000	$298	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-171,557
• Equity at exit: $140,008

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-173,538
• Equity at exit: $81,188

Cash invested: $262,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10594

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,184 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,924
• Tax from tax record: −$1,459 /mo · $17,509/yr
• Insurance: −$391
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,719
• Net cashflow: $-309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,575

Max offer price $884,366

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $222	-5% $-43	+0% $-309	+5% $-575	+10% $-841
Rent	-10% $-956	-5% $-633	+0% $-309	+5% $14	+10% $337
Rate	-1.0pp $164	-0.5pp $-70	base $-309	+0.5pp $-553	+1.0pp $-800

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $234,750
• Closing costs: $28,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Foxwood Ln Thornwood, NY	4.0	3.5	2026	$12,999	$6.42	45d	1	1.02mi
568 Manville Rd Unit Upper R Pleasantville, NY	4.0	2.5	2049	$5,200	$2.54	0d	1	1.22mi
568 Manville Rd Unit Upper R Pleasantville, NY	4.0	2.5	2049	$5,500	$2.68	19d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $939,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $939,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $939,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $939,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $939,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $939,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $17,509 · $1,459/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $17,509 · $1,459/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $98,207
• − Mortgage interest: −$52,599
• − Property taxes: −$17,509
• − Insurance: −$4,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,857
• − Management: −$7,857
• − Depreciation: −$27,316
• Taxable loss: −$19,625
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,710
• After-tax cash flow: $999/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Pleasant Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620160
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $109,054
• Composite: 59.62/100
• National rank: #911
• State rank: #146 of 590 in NY

Livability — Thornwood

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #389
• US rank: #6724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thornwood, NY
• Population (ZIP): 5,512

Population outlook (Westchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,028,035 people
• By 2030: 1,051,636 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 1,098,520 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 1,136,044 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 1,196,925 · +16.4%
• By 2100: 1,175,147 · +14.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Other Indo-European 12% Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Westchester

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.3) · D 63.1% · R 36.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.6pp · 2024: 26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.3 2020: D+36.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.72%
• Current HPI: 286.025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+394.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $939,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-15 Price Changed $565,000 HGMLS
• 2010-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $565,000 Public Records
• 2010-06-16 Sold (MLS) $565,000 HGMLS
• 2010-05-21 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2010-04-13 Contingent — HGMLS
• 2010-04-13 Price Changed $620,000 HGMLS
• 2010-01-25 Listed $620,000 HGMLS
• 2010-01-25 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2009-11-17 Price Changed — HGMLS
• 2009-03-23 Listed — HGMLS
• 2001-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $17,509 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.