21691 Lotus Elm St · Magnolia, TX 77354

$292,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,348 sqft · MultiFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,644 sqft lot $217/sqft · 10% above area Est $266k · 10% over $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• ARV discount +2.9/15.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

Imagine pulling up into the driveway of your brand-new home here in the Magnolia Woods community! Your guests will light up from the moment that they walk in the front door. They will be drawn into the living room with three, beautiful bay windows that fill the kitchen and living room with natural light, accentuating just how spacious the home is. Once they are done ooing and awing over the incredible living space, they will be blown away by the spacious backyard. If you enjoy having your entertainment space separate from your bedrooms for added privacy, you will love this two-story home. It even has an upstairs laundry room, so you do not have to haul your clothes up and down the stairs! This lot specifically is located within the subdivision on a through street.

Key facts

• Three bay windows
• Spacious backyard
• 4,644 sq ft lot

Tags

• MAGNOLIA WOODS COMMUNITY
• THREE BAY WINDOWS
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath multifamily listed at $293k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-319 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($289k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,877 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.67%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,900
• List price: $292,900
• Delta: 10.15%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $133,446
• Equity at exit: $263,868

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $398,551
• Equity at exit: $569,040

Cash invested: $82,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,209 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,536
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$366 /mo · $4,394/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,613

Max offer price $246,706

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,225
• Closing costs: $8,787
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21619 Bluebonnet Bay Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1911	$2,235	$1.17	1d	1	0.09mi
40839 Hawthorne Glades St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,100	$1.82	44d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $292,900 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $292,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-05-14
   status Active 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Imagine pulling up into the driveway of your brand-new home here in the Magnolia Woods community! Your guests will light up from the moment that they walk in the front door. They will be drawn into the living room with three, beautiful bay windows that fill the kitchen and living room with natural light, accentuating just how spacious the home is. Once they are done ooing and awing over the incredible living space, they will be blown away by the spacious backyard. If you enjoy having your entertainment space separate from your bedrooms for added privacy, you will love this two-story home. It even has an upstairs laundry room, so you do not have to haul your clothes up and down the stairs! This lot specifically is located within the subdivision on a through street.

4. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Imagine pulling up into the driveway of your brand-new home here in the Magnolia Woods community! Your guests will light up from the moment that they walk in the front door. They will be drawn into the living room with three, beautiful bay windows that fill the kitchen and living room with natural light, accentuating just how spacious the home is. Once they are done ooing and awing over the incredible living space, they will be blown away by the spacious backyard. If you enjoy having your entertainment space separate from your bedrooms for added privacy, you will love this two-story home. It even has an upstairs laundry room, so you do not have to haul your clothes up and down the stairs! This lot specifically is located within the subdivision on a through street.

5. 2026-04-25
   status Active 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Imagine pulling up into the driveway of your brand-new home here in the Magnolia Woods community! Your guests will light up from the moment that they walk in the front door. They will be drawn into the living room with three, beautiful bay windows that fill the kitchen and living room with natural light, accentuating just how spacious the home is. Once they are done ooing and awing over the incredible living space, they will be blown away by the spacious backyard. If you enjoy having your entertainment space separate from your bedrooms for added privacy, you will love this two-story home. It even has an upstairs laundry room, so you do not have to haul your clothes up and down the stairs! This lot specifically is located within the subdivision on a through street.

6. 2026-04-20
   historical $2,260

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Imagine pulling up into the driveway of your brand-new home here in the Magnolia Woods community! Your guests will light up from the moment that they walk in the front door. They will be drawn into the living room with three, beautiful bay windows that fill the kitchen and living room with natural light, accentuating just how spacious the home is. Once they are done ooing and awing over the incredible living space, they will be blown away by the spacious backyard. If you enjoy having your entertainment space separate from your bedrooms for added privacy, you will love this two-story home. It even has an upstairs laundry room, so you do not have to haul your clothes up and down the stairs! This lot specifically is located within the subdivision on a through street.

7. 2026-04-20
   status Pending 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Imagine pulling up into the driveway of your brand-new home here in the Magnolia Woods community! Your guests will light up from the moment that they walk in the front door. They will be drawn into the living room with three, beautiful bay windows that fill the kitchen and living room with natural light, accentuating just how spacious the home is. Once they are done ooing and awing over the incredible living space, they will be blown away by the spacious backyard. If you enjoy having your entertainment space separate from your bedrooms for added privacy, you will love this two-story home. It even has an upstairs laundry room, so you do not have to haul your clothes up and down the stairs! This lot specifically is located within the subdivision on a through street.

8. 2026-04-17
   price $2,260

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Imagine pulling up into the driveway of your brand-new home here in the Magnolia Woods community! Your guests will light up from the moment that they walk in the front door. They will be drawn into the living room with three, beautiful bay windows that fill the kitchen and living room with natural light, accentuating just how spacious the home is. Once they are done ooing and awing over the incredible living space, they will be blown away by the spacious backyard. If you enjoy having your entertainment space separate from your bedrooms for added privacy, you will love this two-story home. It even has an upstairs laundry room, so you do not have to haul your clothes up and down the stairs! This lot specifically is located within the subdivision on a through street.

9. 2026-04-17
   listed $292,900 Active 774-char remark

   Show marketing remark (774 chars)

   Imagine pulling up into the driveway of your brand-new home here in the Magnolia Woods community! Your guests will light up from the moment that they walk in the front door. They will be drawn into the living room with three, beautiful bay windows that fill the kitchen and living room with natural light, accentuating just how spacious the home is. Once they are done ooing and awing over the incredible living space, they will be blown away by the spacious backyard. If you enjoy having your entertainment space separate from your bedrooms for added privacy, you will love this two-story home. It even has an upstairs laundry room, so you do not have to haul your clothes up and down the stairs! This lot specifically is located within the subdivision on a through street.

10. 2026-02-15
    listed $2,245

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,505
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,407
• − Property taxes: −$4,394
• − Insurance: −$1,464
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,120
• − Management: −$2,120
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$8,521
• Taxable loss: −$9,001
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,160
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Rental Removed $2,260 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $2,260 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $292,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-15 Listed for Rent $2,245 HARMLS