MacKenzie Plan · Republic, MO 65738

$230,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,468 sqft · SingleFamily · 1051 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out the MacKenzie - a charming 2-story floor plan that is perfect for families and first-time homebuyers! As you enter the MacKenzie, you will be greeted by an open-concept living space that includes a spacious living room, a lovely dining room, a modern kitchen, and a convenient half bath. The first floor is an elegant and functional living space, perfect for entertaining guests or spending quality time with your family. Upstairs, you will find three bedrooms - each with plenty of closet space - and two full baths. The MacKenzie's master bedroom features a spacious walk-in closet and a lovely en-suite bathroom, complete with a walk-in shower. With its thoughtfully designed floor plan and beautiful finishes, the MacKenzie is the perfect place to call home. Contact us today to learn more about this amazing new home!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 1050 days

🏗️ New construction. The $230,500 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $262,120.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-328 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#92 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Republic R-III (suburban): math 56% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mcculloch Elementary (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #231 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 454 students, 34% FRL); Republic Middle (math 50% / reading 53%, grade C, #57 of 391 statewide, top 15%, 1,146 students, 39% FRL); Republic High (math 56% / reading 60%, grade C, #48 of 521 statewide, top 9%, 1,542 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 641 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1051 days — a 12% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,817 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1051 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.36%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,120
• List price: $230,500
• Delta: -12.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1447 S Barnard Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+1%)	2mo	$273,258	$185	92
1425 E Charlton St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+1%)	2mo	$284,877	$192	86
1333 E Price St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+3%)	0mo	$255,000	$169	85
1581 E Charlton St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+0%)	0mo	$274,993	$187	79
1349 E Macon St	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,486 (+1%)	2mo	$269,000	$181	76
1371 E Macon St	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,486 (+1%)	2mo	$279,900	$188	76
1395 E Charlton St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-8%)	2mo	$272,012	$202	73
1513 E Charlton St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-8%)	3mo	$270,965	$201	73
1491 E Charlton St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-8%)	2mo	$269,942	$200	66
1753 E Macon St	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,520 (+4%)	2mo	$259,900	$171	64
1597 E Charlton St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+12%)	1mo	$309,913	$188	58
1251 S Antietam Rd	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,646 (+12%)	1mo	$340,000	$207	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-62,158
• Equity at exit: $39,083

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-76,068
• Equity at exit: $22,663

Cash invested: $73,394 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 29 active · 28 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.1 mo (20%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $278,500 ($183/sqft)
• Median days on market: 357 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -2.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 65738

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 641
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,878 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,375
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$328 /mo · $3,932/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $-328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,293

Max offer price $214,702

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-147	-5% $-237	+0% $-328	+5% $-418	+10% $-509
Rent	-10% $-476	-5% $-402	+0% $-328	+5% $-254	+10% $-179
Rate	-1.0pp $-196	-0.5pp $-261	base $-328	+0.5pp $-396	+1.0pp $-465

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,530
• Closing costs: $7,864
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1717 E Macon St Republic, MO	4.0	2.0	1525	$1,945	$1.28	4d	1	0.23mi
1450 S Olde Savannah Ave Republic, MO	4.0	2.0	1539	$2,400	$1.56	109d	1	0.28mi
2113 E Primrose St Unit 2113 Republic, MO	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,100	$1.07	6d	1	1.10mi
1338 S Marseilles Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,575	$1.04	139d	1	1.15mi
301 W Corsica St Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,795	$1.25	0d	1	1.15mi
109 N Allen Ave Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1141	$1,295	$1.13	139d	1	1.17mi
649 Rilynn Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	109d	1	1.19mi
240 E Mill St Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1290	$1,495	$1.16	6d	1	1.25mi
419 W Barcelona St Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,650	$1.24	119d	1	1.28mi
101 S Basswood Ave Republic, MO	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,250	$1.18	139d	1	1.33mi
1361 S Lorraine Ave Republic, MO	4.0	2.0	1539	$2,400	$1.56	109d	1	1.42mi
576 W Danielle St Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,495	$1.07	109d	1	1.47mi
1315 S Normandy Ave Republic, MO	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,545	$1.10	0d	1	1.48mi
555 W Melody Ln Republic, MO	4.0	2.0	1585	$1,895	$1.20	0d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $230,500 Active 1051 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $230,500 Active 1050 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $230,500 Active 1049 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $230,500 Active 1048 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $230,500 Active 1047 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $230,500 Active 1045 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $230,500 Active 1044 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $230,500 Active 1043 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $230,500 Active 1042 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $230,500 Active 1041 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $230,500 Active 1040 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $230,500 Active 1039 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $230,500 Active 1038 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $230,500 Active 1032 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $230,500 Active 1031 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $230,500 Active 1030 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $230,500 Active 1027 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $230,500 Active 1026 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $230,500 Active 1025 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $230,500 Active 1024 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $230,500 Active 1023 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $230,500 Active 1022 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $230,500 Active 1021 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $230,500 Active 1020 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $230,500 Active 1019 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $230,500 Active 1018 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $230,500 Active 1017 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $230,500 Active 1016 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $230,500 Active 1015 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $230,500 Active 1014 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $230,500 Active 1013 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $230,500 Active 1012 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $230,500 Active 1011 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $230,500 Active 1010 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $230,500 Active 1009 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $230,500 Active 1008 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $230,500 Active 1007 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $230,500 Active 1006 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $230,500 Active 1005 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $230,500 Active 1004 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $230,500 Active 1003 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $230,500 Active 1002 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $230,500 Active 1001 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $230,500 Active 1000 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $230,500 Active 999 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $230,500 Active 996 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $230,500 Active 995 DOM
48. 2026-07-29
    days on market $230,500 Active 994 DOM
49. 2026-07-27
    days on market $230,500 Active 992 DOM
50. 2026-07-25
    days on market $230,500 Active 990 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,683
• − Property taxes: −$3,932
• − Insurance: −$1,311
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,803
• − Management: −$1,803
• − Depreciation: −$7,625
• Taxable loss: −$8,619
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,068
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This MacKenzie plan home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a well-maintained exterior, modern interior, and a spacious floor plan perfect for families and first-time homebuyers.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — New appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mcculloch Elementary C- MO #231/1,115 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 Middle Republic Middle C MO #57/391 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Republic High C MO #48/521 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Republic R-III
• NCES district ID: 2926220
• Math proficiency: 56% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,329
• Composite: 48.3/100
• National rank: #2152
• State rank: #19 of 324 in MO

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Republic

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #92
• US rank: #6228

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Republic, MO
• County: Greene County · 319,054 people
• City population: 21,283
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 21,283
• Household income: $67,841
• Rent vs Own: 33.8% rent · 66.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

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Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 217.1512
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.61%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2023-11-08 Listed $230,500 Zillow