Winchester Plan · Bryan, TX 77808

$1

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,119 sqft · SingleFamily · 420 Days on market

Excellent condition $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Winchester plan. Winchester features 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a dedicated office. Follow the long entry hall into the main area. The living room is spacious with ample natural light and is open to the kitchen and dining room. Enjoy winding down with your family cooking or watching movies. The kitchen comes equipped with a spacious island, custom site-built cabinetry, gas appliances (per neighborhood), beautiful tile backsplash hand picked by you, pendant lighting and so much more. The primary bedroom has large windows and plenty of space for a king bed. The primary bathroom features double vanities, oversized tub, tile shower and floor and a private toilet room. One of the best things about this plan is how the primary closet opens to the bathroom and has access directly across from the laundry room. Efficient and well-designed. Privately off to the side is the flex space/office. A great area for working from home or a kids play room. Across the way from the flex room are three more bedrooms and a large shared bathroom with double vanities and a separate tub/shower and toilet room. Head outside to finish your day on the covered patio. Add an outdoor kitchen for an added flare and functionality on summer nights and birthdays.

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Flex space
• Dedicated office

Tags

• DEDICATED OFFICE
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• CUSTOM SITE-BUILT CABINETRY
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• PENDANT LIGHTING
• FLEX SPACE

🏗️ New construction. The $1 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $498,222.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $1).
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 4.0% in Bryan — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#99 in TX, #3,341 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities C-.
• Bryan ISD (urban): math 30% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #608 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 420 days — a 12% lower offer ($0) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 747333.5% of price.

Recommended offer $1

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 420 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.04%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 15.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $498,222
• List price: $1
• Delta: -100.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3568 Chantilly Path	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,139 (+1%)	10mo	$545,000	$255	73
3509 Castine Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,052 (-3%)	8mo	$480,000	$234	70
3217 Arundala Way	0.73mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,117 (-0%)	14mo	$439,500	$208	47
3320 Lewisburg Ct	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,427 (+14%)	18mo	$475,000	$196	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-162,434
• Equity at exit: $74,287

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.77×
• Total profit: $-246,489
• Equity at exit: $43,077

Cash invested: $139,502 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77808

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Active inventory: 371

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,765 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,613
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$623 /mo · $7,473/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $-1,284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,390

Max offer price $312,473

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,556
• Closing costs: $14,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3024 Teller Dr Bryan, TX	4.0	2.0	1979	$2,600	$1.31	21d	1	1.04mi
2915 Bombay Ct Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	2085	$2,900	$1.39	14d	1	1.16mi
3019 Wolfpack Loop Bryan, TX	4.0	2.5	1906	$2,750	$1.44	21d	1	1.29mi
3508 Broad Oak Cir Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1745	$2,400	$1.38	44d	1	1.37mi
5041 Mooney Falls Dr Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1814	$2,400	$1.32	44d	1	1.44mi
5040 Mooney Falls Dr Unit 1328058P Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1840	$5,551	$3.02	14d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1 Active 420 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1 Active 419 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1 Active 418 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1 Active 417 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1 Active 415 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1 Active 414 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1 Active 412 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1 Active 411 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1 Active 410 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1 Active 409 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1 Active 405 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1 Active 404 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1 Active 403 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1 Active 402 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $1 Active 401 DOM
16. 2025-04-24
    listed $1 Active 1262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1262 chars)

    Welcome to the Winchester plan. Winchester features 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a dedicated office. Follow the long entry hall into the main area. The living room is spacious with ample natural light and is open to the kitchen and dining room. Enjoy winding down with your family cooking or watching movies. The kitchen comes equipped with a spacious island, custom site-built cabinetry, gas appliances (per neighborhood), beautiful tile backsplash hand picked by you, pendant lighting and so much more. The primary bedroom has large windows and plenty of space for a king bed. The primary bathroom features double vanities, oversized tub, tile shower and floor and a private toilet room. One of the best things about this plan is how the primary closet opens to the bathroom and has access directly across from the laundry room. Efficient and well-designed. Privately off to the side is the flex space/office. A great area for working from home or a kids play room. Across the way from the flex room are three more bedrooms and a large shared bathroom with double vanities and a separate tub/shower and toilet room. Head outside to finish your day on the covered patio. Add an outdoor kitchen for an added flare and functionality on summer nights and birthdays.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,181
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,908
• − Property taxes: −$7,473
• − Insurance: −$2,491
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,654
• − Management: −$2,654
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$14,494
• Taxable loss: −$24,794
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,951
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,453/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some landscaping and interior painting to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing and increase its value
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing and increase its value ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bryan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811790
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,895
• Composite: 26.26/100
• National rank: #7253
• State rank: #608 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bryan

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #3341

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bryan, TX
• County: Brazos County · 233,400 people
• City population: 101,772
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,797
• Household income: $113,343
• Rent vs Own: 9.5% rent · 90.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 110.0

Population outlook (Brazos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,942 people
• By 2030: 296,630 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 354,560 · +32.3%
• By 2050: 414,616 · +54.7%
• By 2075: 562,158 · +109.8%
• By 2100: 678,828 · +153.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazos

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.9% · R 61.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+14.3 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+35.3 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.49%
• Current HPI: 216.65
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B