313 Mesa · Cienegas Terrace, TX 78840

$137,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 288 Days on market

Built 1999 $92/sqft · 17% above area Est $136k · at est. ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for an investor to customize this home. There's lots of potential and over 1700 square feet of space! Roof was recently replaced. 2 bonus rooms, potential bedrooms. Being sold "as is where is"

Key facts

• Built 1999
• Listed 287 days

Tags

• RECENTLY REPLACED ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $392 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,065 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• San Felipe-Del Rio CISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #667 of 826 in TX (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 549 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 85 units permitted in Val Verde County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $951 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Val Verde County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 288 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 288 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.23%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,478
• List price: $137,500
• Delta: 0.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
693 S Duck Pond Rd Unit N/A	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-4%)	20mo	$160,000	$111	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $319
• Equity at exit: $20,502

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $22,933
• Equity at exit: $11,888

Cash invested: $38,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78840

• Home prices YoY: -33.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 549
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,669 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,770/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,172

Max offer price $137,500

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,375
• Closing costs: $4,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
312 Javier Dr Del Rio, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	44d	1	1.41mi
311 Javier Dr Del Rio, TX	3.0	2.0	1623	$1,875	$1.16	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $137,500 Active 288 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $137,500 Active 287 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $137,500 Active 286 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $137,500 Active 285 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $137,500 Active 284 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $137,500 Active 282 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $137,500 Active 281 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $137,500 Active 278 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $137,500 Active 277 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $137,500 Active 276 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $137,500 Active 273 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $137,500 Active 272 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $137,500 Active 271 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $137,500 Active 270 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $137,500 Active 269 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $137,500 Active 268 DOM
17. 2026-01-27
    price $137,500 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Looking for an investor to customize this home. There's lots of potential and over 1700 square feet of space! Roof was recently replaced. 2 bonus rooms, potential bedrooms. Being sold "as is where is"

18. 2025-09-03
    listed $147,500 Active 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Looking for an investor to customize this home. There's lots of potential and over 1700 square feet of space! Roof was recently replaced. 2 bonus rooms, potential bedrooms. Being sold "as is where is"

19. 2005-07-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,770 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,516 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$746/yr (+$62/mo · 42.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,024
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,702
• − Property taxes: −$1,770
• − Insurance: −$688
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,602
• − Management: −$1,602
• − Depreciation: −$4,000
• Taxable income: $2,660
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$638
• After-tax cash flow: $4,070/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Felipe-Del Rio CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838900
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,582
• Composite: 24.04/100
• National rank: #7766
• State rank: #667 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cienegas Terrace

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1065
• US rank: #18905

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cienegas Terrace, TX
• County: Val Verde County · 47,256 people
• Metro: Del Rio, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,256
• Household income: $66,084
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1111.0

Population outlook (Val Verde County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,073 people
• By 2030: 47,468 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 45,930 · -4.5%
• By 2050: 43,904 · -8.7%
• By 2075: 38,126 · -20.7%
• By 2100: 26,217 · -45.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 82% Two or more races 24% White 15% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 63%

Political lean MEDSL · Val Verde

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.6) · D 36.2% · R 62.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: -26.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.6 2020: R+9.9 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.95%
• Current HPI: 161.762
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• Metro: Del Rio, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $137,500 DRBORMLS
• 2025-09-03 Listed $147,500 DRBORMLS
• 2005-07-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,770 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.