467 Halcyon Pl · Bethel Island, CA 94511

$1,349,888

4 bd · 5.0 ba · 3,498 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 133 Days on market

Built 2022 4,972 sqft lot Est $1599k · 16% under $459/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully upgraded 4-bed, 4.5-bath waterfront home with 3,498 sq ft in Bethel Islands Delta Coves community. Features luxury vinyl flooring, plush bedroom carpeting, and high-end finishes throughout. The chefs kitchen includes a sleek overhang island, marble backsplash, and modern cabinetry. Enjoy peaceful Delta water views from upstairs bedrooms. Window coverings are installed, and solar panels offer energy efficiency. The backyard features an upgraded glass fence and private boat dockperfect for launching paddleboards, personal watercraft, or small boats, with access to fishing and scenic Delta cruising. As a Delta Coves resident, enjoy exclusive access to Island Camp, a private 15,000 sq ft clubhouse featuring a pool, wading pool, hot tub, fitness center, movement studio, club room, BBQ pavilion, lawn games, and waterfront Duffy Boat Bar. Located near Sugar Barge Marina, Hannah Nicole Winery, and Serendipity Cellars, and a short drive to Oakley and Brentwood, this home delivers a serene Deltawaterway lifestyle with modern comfort and convenience.

Key facts

• Marble backsplash
• Private boat dock
• Fitness center

Tags

• WATERFRONT HOME
• CHEFS KITCHEN
• MARBLE BACKSPLASH
• PRIVATE BOAT DOCK
• FITNESS CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has HOA (Delta Coves Maintenance Corporation); HOA fee $459; HOA amenities include boat dock, clubhouse, community pool, gym/exercise facility, and other amenities; HOA fees include other items (see remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Detached property; 2 stories; Zoned P-1
• Construction: Foundation listed as 'Other'
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Boat dock; Roof listed as 'Other (See Remarks)'

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central forced air heating
• Interior features: Dining area in living room; One fireplace; Central forced air heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $1.35M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $697 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($14k rent vs $1.35M).
• Recommended offer: $1.19M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.9% in Bethel Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,166 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Oakley Union Elementary (suburban): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #837 of 1,400 in CA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $144k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $135k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $378k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$232k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.19M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,187,901 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.21%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,598,586
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
419 Halcyon Pl	0.09mi	4/4.5	3,504 (+0%)	1mo	$1,450,000	$414	93
413 Halcyon Pl	0.10mi	4/4.0	3,384 (-3%)	9mo	$1,287,000	$380	78
380 Navigators	0.08mi	4/5.0	3,842 (+10%)	14mo	$1,900,000	$495	68
3155 Delta Cvs	0.28mi	4/3.5	3,332 (-5%)	7mo	$1,875,000	$563	67
349 Navigator's Pl	0.11mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,331 (-5%)	18mo	$1,499,000	$450	65
3389 Delta Coves Dr	0.18mi	4/5.5	3,847 (+10%)	18mo	$1,600,000	$416	58
291 Waterside Pl	0.13mi	4/4.5	3,882 (+11%)	21mo	$1,800,000	$464	56
3371 Delta Coves Dr	0.17mi	4/4.5	3,887 (+11%)	22mo	$1,775,000	$457	53
34 Grey Whale Pl	0.44mi	4/5.0	3,882 (+11%)	21mo	$2,000,000	$515	44
3824 Stone Rd	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,727 (+6%)	5mo	$1,045,000	$280	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $780,370
• Equity at exit: $1,216,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.99×
• Total profit: $2,264,773
• Equity at exit: $2,622,535

Cash invested: $377,969 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94511

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $13,924 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,079
• Tax from tax record: −$2,203 /mo · $26,437/yr
• Insurance: −$562
• HOA: −$459
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,924
• Net cashflow: $697

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,042

Max offer price $1,349,888

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $337,472
• Closing costs: $40,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
407 Halcyon Pl Bethel Island, CA	4.0	5.5	3851	$20,000	$5.19	1d	1	0.15mi
98 Edgewater Ct Bethel Island, CA	4.0	5.0	3900	$6,500	$1.67	1d	1	0.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $459 · $5,508/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,349,888 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,349,888 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,349,888 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,349,888 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,349,888 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,349,888 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,349,888 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,349,888 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,349,888 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,349,888 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,349,888 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,349,888 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,349,888 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,349,888 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-02-05
    listed $1,349,888 Active 1067-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1067 chars)

    Beautifully upgraded 4-bed, 4.5-bath waterfront home with 3,498 sq ft in Bethel Islands Delta Coves community. Features luxury vinyl flooring, plush bedroom carpeting, and high-end finishes throughout. The chefs kitchen includes a sleek overhang island, marble backsplash, and modern cabinetry. Enjoy peaceful Delta water views from upstairs bedrooms. Window coverings are installed, and solar panels offer energy efficiency. The backyard features an upgraded glass fence and private boat dockperfect for launching paddleboards, personal watercraft, or small boats, with access to fishing and scenic Delta cruising. As a Delta Coves resident, enjoy exclusive access to Island Camp, a private 15,000 sq ft clubhouse featuring a pool, wading pool, hot tub, fitness center, movement studio, club room, BBQ pavilion, lawn games, and waterfront Duffy Boat Bar. Located near Sugar Barge Marina, Hannah Nicole Winery, and Serendipity Cellars, and a short drive to Oakley and Brentwood, this home delivers a serene Deltawaterway lifestyle with modern comfort and convenience.

16. 2026-02-05
    listed $1,349,888 Active 1067-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1067 chars)

    Beautifully upgraded 4-bed, 4.5-bath waterfront home with 3,498 sq ft in Bethel Islands Delta Coves community. Features luxury vinyl flooring, plush bedroom carpeting, and high-end finishes throughout. The chefs kitchen includes a sleek overhang island, marble backsplash, and modern cabinetry. Enjoy peaceful Delta water views from upstairs bedrooms. Window coverings are installed, and solar panels offer energy efficiency. The backyard features an upgraded glass fence and private boat dockperfect for launching paddleboards, personal watercraft, or small boats, with access to fishing and scenic Delta cruising. As a Delta Coves resident, enjoy exclusive access to Island Camp, a private 15,000 sq ft clubhouse featuring a pool, wading pool, hot tub, fitness center, movement studio, club room, BBQ pavilion, lawn games, and waterfront Duffy Boat Bar. Located near Sugar Barge Marina, Hannah Nicole Winery, and Serendipity Cellars, and a short drive to Oakley and Brentwood, this home delivers a serene Deltawaterway lifestyle with modern comfort and convenience.

17. 2025-10-27
    historical
18. 2025-08-08
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $26,437 · $2,203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $26,437 · $2,203/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $167,093
• − Mortgage interest: −$75,615
• − Property taxes: −$26,437
• − Insurance: −$6,749
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$13,367
• − Management: −$13,367
• − HOA: −$5,508
• − Depreciation: −$39,269
• Taxable loss: −$13,221
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,173
• After-tax cash flow: $11,534/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakley Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0628080
• Math proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $77,903
• Composite: 34.04/100
• National rank: #10301
• State rank: #837 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bethel Island

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1166
• US rank: #25883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment C- Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bethel Island, CA
• City population: 2,144
• Population (ZIP): 2,144

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Asian 6% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.77%
• Current HPI: 312.0698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed $1,349,888 MLSListings
• 2026-02-05 Listed $1,349,888 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-27 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-08-08 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+17.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $26,437 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.