6231 Calgary Ave · Carmichael, CA 95841

$123,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 66 Days on market

Built 2023 $154/sqft · 146% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW Champion Built in 2023. Move in ready and comes with most furnishings: Couches, chairs, wall decor, tables, Mirrors, newer washer and dryer! What more can you ask for? Seller updated: New energy efficient lighting and new ceiling fans, kitchen drop light chandelier, wood beam in ceiling for accent decor, interior paint, painted new cabinets white. The grounds in this park is what makes it a wonderful place to live: gated pet area, horseshoe pit, NEW picnic area, community vegetable garden and fruit trees. It is a very nice 55+ community located at Country Squire Estates. Come over for a visit!

Key facts

• Picnic area
• Pet area
• Fruit trees

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT LIGHTING
• PET AREA
• HORSESHOE PIT
• PICNIC AREA
• COMMUNITY VEGETABLE GARDEN
• FRUIT TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $123k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $575 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $123k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 2.6% in Carmichael — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#471 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A-, housing B+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, crime F, commute F.
• Twin Rivers Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #970 of 1,400 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $850 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,620 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.36%
• DSCR: 1.99
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $49,950
• List price: $123,000
• Delta: 146.25%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6230 Manitoba Ave	0.01mi	2/2.0	842 (+5%)	8mo	$40,000	$48	84
5935 Auburn Blvd #154	0.40mi	2/1.0	800 (0%)	8mo	$77,500	$97	71
6226 Manitoba Ave #70	0.02mi	1/1.0 (-1)	700 (-12%)	12mo	$40,000	$57	59
6219 Tyee Ave #142	0.10mi	2/1.0	720 (-10%)	20mo	$59,000	$82	57
5935 Auburn Blvd #189	0.40mi	2/2.0	690 (-14%)	2mo	$29,900	$43	56
5935 Auburn Blvd #160	0.32mi	2/1.5	684 (-14%)	4mo	$45,000	$66	55
5935 Auburn Blvd #45	0.37mi	2/1.0	840 (+5%)	21mo	$75,000	$89	53
6220 Gettysburg Ln #11	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	915 (+14%)	17mo	$105,000	$115	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $11,339
• Equity at exit: $18,340

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $36,315
• Equity at exit: $10,635

Cash invested: $34,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95841

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,849 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$645
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,471/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $575

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,121

Max offer price $123,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,750
• Closing costs: $3,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6430 Verner Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	705	$2,295	$3.25	23d	1	0.20mi
5979 Devecchi Ave Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,871	$2.41	1d	15	0.30mi
6011 Shadow Ln Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	779	$2,348	$3.01	1d	15	0.50mi
5417 Olympic Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	920	$1,795	$1.95	14d	1	0.52mi
5922 Petaluma Ct Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1048	$2,075	$1.98	1d	1	0.53mi
5840 Garfield Ave Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,545	$1.82	1d	2	0.64mi
5718 Manzanita Ave Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$2,000	$2.04	43d	1	0.68mi
5587 Keoncrest Cir Unit 2 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$2,000	$2.22	1d	1	0.69mi
5844 Garden Park Ct Unit RV 5877-B Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,575	$1.72	16d	1	0.71mi
5844 Garden Park Ct Unit RV 5853-D Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,525	$1.67	16d	1	0.71mi
5501 Keoncrest Cir Unit 1 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	1d	1	0.73mi
6245 Longford Dr #3 Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	23d	1	0.84mi
6228 Longford Dr #3 Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,595	$1.90	17d	1	0.88mi
6544 Auburn Blvd Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	2.0	800	$1,850	$2.31	23d	1	0.93mi
5109 Andrea Blvd Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	828	$1,769	$2.14	1d	2	0.93mi
6841 Concert Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,995	$2.00	1d	1	0.99mi
6533 Greenback Ln #3 Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,800	$2.14	23d	1	0.99mi
6546 Auburn Blvd Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	624	$1,853	$2.97	4d	10	1.09mi
5402 Mona Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	863	$1,750	$2.03	22d	1	1.15mi
6225 Wildomar Way Carmichael, CA	3.0	1.0	1040	$3,000	$2.88	43d	1	1.21mi
5425 Garfield Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,650	$2.10	20d	5	1.21mi
6004 Rutland Dr Unit 128 Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,495	$1.66	4d	1	1.22mi
5500 Foothill Garden Ct Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,472	$1.96	2d	2	1.23mi
5322 Hemlock St Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,875	$2.34	2d	2	1.24mi
5308 Winfield Way #2 Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1105	$2,100	$1.90	43d	1	1.25mi
5300 Winfield Way #2 Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1105	$2,100	$1.90	23d	1	1.27mi
5244 Hackberry Ln Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	712	$1,712	$2.41	43d	1	1.31mi
4758 Greenholme Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	924	$1,595	$1.73	43d	1	1.39mi
5226 Hemlock St #35 Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	682	$1,650	$2.42	23d	1	1.40mi
5755 Callie Ln Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	723	$2,000	$2.76	3d	13	1.46mi
5233 Columbine Way Carmichael, CA	3.0	2.0	1008	$2,375	$2.36	4d	1	1.46mi
Venuto Way North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	906	$2,095	$2.31	10d	2	1.48mi
5341 Walnut Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,795	$2.39	1d	6	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $123,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $123,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $123,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $123,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $123,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 605-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $123,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $123,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $123,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $123,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $123,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $123,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $123,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $123,000 Active 48 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,471 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,471 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,890
• − Property taxes: −$1,471
• − Insurance: −$1,412
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,775
• − Management: −$1,775
• − Depreciation: −$3,578
• Taxable income: $5,285
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,268
• After-tax cash flow: $5,635/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Twin Rivers Unified
• NCES district ID: 0601332
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,481
• Composite: 30.67/100
• National rank: #11437
• State rank: #970 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Carmichael

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #471
• US rank: #15996

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment B Housing B+ Health & safety C User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carmichael, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 61,440
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,500
• Household income: $61,054
• Rent vs Own: 65.3% rent · 34.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1353.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 9% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 11% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.82%
• Current HPI: 369.8991
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,471 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.