110 Hog Wild Ln · Ray City, GA 31645

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,712 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 2011 2.00 ac lot $99/sqft · 10% below area Est $190k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to purchase a newer 3 bedroom, 2 bath home on 2 acres! Metal roof with vinyl siding, nice front porch, and fenced backyard. The home has a living room plus a nice family room with plenty of space for entertaining! Easy to clean with LVP and tile flooring throughout. Make an offer on this amazing home today! Cash or conventional financing only considered.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Front porch
• Living room

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• VINYL SIDING
• FRONT PORCH
• FENCED BACKYARD
• LIVING ROOM
• FAMILY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.0% in Ray City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#260 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Berrien County (rural): math 48% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #24 of 174 in GA (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 96 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Berrien County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,609 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.28%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,670
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -10.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.27% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $36,223
• Equity at exit: $78,977

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $107,289
• Equity at exit: $123,760

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31645

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,675 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,410

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $306	-5% $258	+0% $209	+5% $161	+10% $113
Rent	-10% $77	-5% $143	+0% $209	+5% $276	+10% $342
Rate	-1.0pp $295	-0.5pp $253	base $209	+0.5pp $165	+1.0pp $121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
288 North St Ray City, GA	3.0	2.0	1206	$1,675	$1.39	21d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 376-char remark

   Show marketing remark (376 chars)

   Great opportunity to purchase a newer 3 bedroom, 2 bath home on 2 acres! Metal roof with vinyl siding, nice front porch, and fenced backyard. The home has a living room plus a nice family room with plenty of space for entertaining! Easy to clean with LVP and tile flooring throughout. Make an offer on this amazing home today! Cash or conventional financing only considered.

2. 2026-04-24
   price $169,900 376-char remark

   Show marketing remark (376 chars)

   Great opportunity to purchase a newer 3 bedroom, 2 bath home on 2 acres! Metal roof with vinyl siding, nice front porch, and fenced backyard. The home has a living room plus a nice family room with plenty of space for entertaining! Easy to clean with LVP and tile flooring throughout. Make an offer on this amazing home today! Cash or conventional financing only considered.

3. 2026-03-25
   price $179,900 376-char remark

   Show marketing remark (376 chars)

   Great opportunity to purchase a newer 3 bedroom, 2 bath home on 2 acres! Metal roof with vinyl siding, nice front porch, and fenced backyard. The home has a living room plus a nice family room with plenty of space for entertaining! Easy to clean with LVP and tile flooring throughout. Make an offer on this amazing home today! Cash or conventional financing only considered.

4. 2026-02-19
   status Active 376-char remark

   Show marketing remark (376 chars)

   Great opportunity to purchase a newer 3 bedroom, 2 bath home on 2 acres! Metal roof with vinyl siding, nice front porch, and fenced backyard. The home has a living room plus a nice family room with plenty of space for entertaining! Easy to clean with LVP and tile flooring throughout. Make an offer on this amazing home today! Cash or conventional financing only considered.

5. 2026-02-05
   status Pending 376-char remark

   Show marketing remark (376 chars)

   Great opportunity to purchase a newer 3 bedroom, 2 bath home on 2 acres! Metal roof with vinyl siding, nice front porch, and fenced backyard. The home has a living room plus a nice family room with plenty of space for entertaining! Easy to clean with LVP and tile flooring throughout. Make an offer on this amazing home today! Cash or conventional financing only considered.

6. 2026-01-21
   listed $189,900 Active 376-char remark

   Show marketing remark (376 chars)

   Great opportunity to purchase a newer 3 bedroom, 2 bath home on 2 acres! Metal roof with vinyl siding, nice front porch, and fenced backyard. The home has a living room plus a nice family room with plenty of space for entertaining! Easy to clean with LVP and tile flooring throughout. Make an offer on this amazing home today! Cash or conventional financing only considered.

7. 2025-08-21
   price $199,000
8. 2025-08-01
   price $189,000
9. 2025-07-10
   price $199,000
10. 2025-06-26
    price $209,000
11. 2025-06-17
    price $219,000
12. 2021-07-07
    soldstatus $160,000
13. 2021-07-02
    soldstatus $160,000
14. 2021-05-11
    listed $160,000
15. 2011-12-30
    soldstatus $92,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,824 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,824 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,824
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$249
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$60
• After-tax cash flow: $2,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Berrien County
• NCES district ID: 1300390
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $33,858
• Composite: 37.95/100
• National rank: #4302
• State rank: #24 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ray City

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #260
• US rank: #14250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,971

Population outlook (Berrien County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,982 people
• By 2030: 17,282 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 15,676 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 13,876 · -22.8%
• By 2075: 9,689 · -46.1%
• By 2100: 6,430 · -64.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Berrien

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.8) · D 15.0% · R 84.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.6pp toward R · 2008: -53.2pp · 2024: -69.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.8 2020: R+66.5 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+57.7 2008: R+53.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.27%
• Current HPI: 233.1015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+82.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — SGMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $169,900 SGMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $179,900 SGMLS
• 2026-02-19 Relisted — SGMLS
• 2026-02-05 Pending — SGMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $189,900 SGMLS
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $199,000 SGMLS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $189,000 SGMLS
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $199,000 SGMLS
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $209,000 SGMLS
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $219,000 SGMLS
• 2021-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-02 Sold (MLS) $160,000 SGMLS
• 2021-05-11 Listed $160,000 SGMLS
• 2011-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $92,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,824 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.