4524 Fairgate Dr · Midland, TX 79707

$200,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1983 4,138 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Key facts

• 4,138 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1983

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car); Carport (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as single family (raw subtype: Single Family)
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Shed(s) on the property; Lot approximately 0.095 acres

Interior

• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Tile flooring; Wood-burning fireplace in the living room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Parker El (math 42% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,651 of 4,322 statewide, top 39%, 567 students, 52% FRL); Abell J H (math 32% / reading 43%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 1,095 students, 46% FRL); Legacy H S (math 37% / reading 3%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 2,504 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 314 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,000 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.41%
• DSCR: 2.00
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $38,789
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $138,903
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79707

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 314
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,065 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,919/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$644
• Net cashflow: $1,046

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 61%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$3,066
Total (2 units)			$3,065

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4419 Fairgate Dr Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1620	$1,800	$1.11	20d	1	0.13mi
3417 N Midland Dr Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	887	$1,317	$1.48	13d	13	0.16mi
3600 N Midland Dr Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,425	$1.58	13d	9	0.26mi
3705 Dentcrest Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,800	$1.28	13d	1	0.29mi
3214 Mark Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1836	$2,550	$1.39	43d	1	0.29mi
3245 Preston Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$2,000	$1.24	43d	1	0.30mi
3309 Edgemont Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,995	$1.87	20d	1	0.35mi
3306 Oakmont Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,500	$1.40	20d	1	0.38mi
3208 Elma Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.5	1645	$2,700	$1.64	43d	1	0.38mi
4715 W Wadley Ave Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	872	$1,514	$1.74	13d	10	0.44mi
4704 Dentcrest Dr Unit A Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	43d	1	0.45mi
3226 Whittle Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1850	$4,250	$2.30	20d	1	0.50mi
4800 Dentcrest Dr Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1148	$1,999	$1.74	43d	1	0.51mi
4713 Dentcrest Dr Unit A Midland, TX	2.0	2.0	1400	$3,250	$2.32	20d	1	0.51mi
4027 Angelina Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2228	$2,900	$1.30	13d	1	0.56mi
5106 Rio Grande Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1924	$2,650	$1.38	44d	1	0.61mi
4805 Briarwood Ave Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$1,860	$1.81	13d	18	0.63mi
5001 W Wadley Ave Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1098	$2,158	$1.96	13d	17	0.64mi
5244 West Loop 250 N Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	791	$1,749	$2.21	13d	34	0.66mi
3002 Phillip Pl Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1579	$2,400	$1.52	43d	1	0.66mi
5117 San Antonio Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,495	$1.56	44d	1	0.66mi
5110 San Antonio Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,600	$1.72	20d	1	0.67mi
5114 San Antonio Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1907	$3,400	$1.78	43d	1	0.68mi
3315 Godfrey St Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.5–4.0	1764	$2,125	$1.20	13d	8	0.71mi
5207 San Antonio Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,200	$1.39	13d	1	0.71mi
2913 Sunburst Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1655	$2,400	$1.45	20d	1	0.85mi
5108 Rainbow Rd Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$3,250	$2.31	43d	1	0.89mi
2302 Wydewood Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1748	$2,500	$1.43	43d	1	0.90mi
2202 Wydewood Dr Midland, TX	3.0	3.0	1854	$2,700	$1.46	13d	1	0.95mi
5200 Briarwood Ave Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	893	$2,124	$2.38	13d	24	0.98mi
4534 Sinclair Ave Midland, TX	2.0	1.0–2.5	901	$1,904	$2.11	20d	9	1.03mi
3317 Providence Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,500	$1.38	43d	1	1.10mi
1902 N Midland Dr Midland, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	887	$1,619	$1.82	13d	40	1.15mi
1813 McDonald St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,249	$1.34	43d	1	1.21mi
3619 Boyd Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,100	$1.24	13d	1	1.34mi
3302 Fannin Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$2,000	$1.30	20d	1	1.34mi
4600 Andrews Hwy Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$2,040	$1.83	43d	5	1.40mi
3209 W Wadley Ave Unit A Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,500	$1.65	43d	1	1.42mi
3134 Tealwood Pl Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1974	$2,500	$1.27	20d	1	1.43mi
3601 Andrews Hwy Midland, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,615	$2.02	13d	16	1.46mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $200,000 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active Under Contract 3 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    status $200,000 Active Under Contract 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    listed $200,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,919 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$741/yr (+$62/mo · 25.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,919
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,942
• − Management: −$2,942
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $9,955
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,389
• After-tax cash flow: $10,163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,010
• Household income: $99,886
• Rent vs Own: 40.0% rent · 60.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1919.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 11% Asian 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -208.65%
• Current HPI: 198.7489
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.45%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $200,000 PBBOR
• 2021-01-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-11-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,919 · -6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.