263 Ray Krebbs Ave · Belton, MO 64012

$39,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 0 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2014

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Home is located in a community with monthly lot rent.

Key facts

• Built 2014
• Listed 37 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $964 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.0% vs local median 4.7% in Belton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#52 in MO, #3,782 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, commute F.
• Belton 124 (suburban): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #216 of 324 in MO (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 204 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 588 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cass County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $37,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 105.99%
• DSCR: 5.72
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.37×
• Total profit: $58,616
• Equity at exit: $5,815

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.30×
• Total profit: $145,182
• Equity at exit: $3,372

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64012

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,562 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$49 /mo · $585/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $964

Break-even live

Break-even rent $341

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $991	-5% $978	+0% $964	+5% $951	+10% $938
Rent	-10% $841	-5% $903	+0% $964	+5% $1,026	+10% $1,088
Rate	-1.0pp $984	-0.5pp $974	base $964	+0.5pp $954	+1.0pp $944

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
300 Hill St Unit A Belton, MO	4.0	2.0	—	$1,200	—	20d	1	0.44mi
209 W 162nd Ter Belton, MO	3.0	2.5	1325	$1,565	$1.18	3d	1	0.56mi
834 Autumn Woods Dr VLG LOCH LOYD, MO	3.0	2.5	1325	$1,730	$1.31	2d	4	0.56mi
215 W 162nd Ter Belton, MO	3.0	2.5	—	$1,565	—	2d	1	0.57mi
6404 E 155th St Grandview, MO	3.0	2.0	—	$1,595	—	3d	1	0.74mi
161 Rainbow Dr Belton, MO	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,478	$0.91	24d	1	0.77mi
6203 E 152nd Ter Unit A Grandview, MO	2.0	1.0	—	$970	—	44d	1	0.95mi
6205 E 152 Ter Unit B Grandview, MO	2.0	1.0	550	$850	$1.55	8d	1	0.96mi
6003 E 151st Ter Unit A Grandview, MO	2.0	1.0	650	$975	$1.50	44d	1	0.97mi
15319 Grand Summit Ext Grandview, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$1,150	$1.41	44d	1	1.00mi
309 Hawthorne Ct Apt A Belton, MO	2.0	1.5	—	$1,300	—	8d	1	1.02mi
108 E Hargis St Belton, MO	2.0	1.0	610	$895	$1.47	2d	3	1.25mi
301 Towne Center Dr Belton, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$1,799	$1.68	2d	9	1.32mi
6108 E 149th St Grandview, MO	4.0	1.5	1200	$1,465	$1.22	44d	1	1.39mi
6205 E 149th St Grandview, MO	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,495	$1.25	22d	1	1.39mi
6302 E 149th Ter Grandview, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,445	$1.40	24d	1	1.42mi
14812 Bellaire Ave Grandview, MO	2.0	1.0	—	$1,195	—	44d	1	1.42mi
16311 Hight Ave Belton, MO	4.0	3.0	1308	$2,285	$1.75	5d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $39,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$585
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,500
• − Management: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $11,646
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,795
• After-tax cash flow: $8,779/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belton 124
• NCES district ID: 2904620
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $56,946
• Composite: 29.73/100
• National rank: #6446
• State rank: #216 of 324 in MO

Livability — Belton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #3782

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belton, MO
• County: Cass County · 65,358 people
• City population: 29,304
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 29,304
• Household income: $71,814
• Rent vs Own: 34.9% rent · 65.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1081.0

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,292 people
• By 2030: 106,109 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 105,786 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 102,062 · -3.1%
• By 2075: 88,569 · -15.9%
• By 2100: 68,293 · -35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.1) · D 33.3% · R 65.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -19.6pp · 2024: -32.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.1 2020: R+31.6 2016: R+35.9 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -244.76%
• Current HPI: 214.6157
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.17%
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $39,000 FSBO.com