The Poppy Plan · Panama City, FL 32404

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,281 sqft · SingleFamily · 288 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Poppy, a new plan located at Liberty in Panama City, Florida. The Poppy is a spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home spanning 1,281 square feet and features a single car garage. As you walk inside, you will be welcomed by Engineered Vinyl Plank flooring which spans the main areas and bathrooms and there is soft carpet in the bedrooms. Upon entering, the front entrance is met with a long hallway next to the bedrooms and full bathroom next to the garage. Walking down the hallway, you'll find the natural light pouring into the open kitchen and living area, offering ample space for all your needs. The Primary bedroom is conveniently located off the living area, providing a private retreat at the back of the home, complete with a bathroom and walk-in closet. The kitchen comes with an island for extra counter space, and you'll find stylish granite countertops in the kitchen and bathrooms seated on beautiful white cabinetry. Your new home also comes with our Smart Home Technology package, designed to elevate your living experience with elegance and modernity. This package offers unparalleled convenience, giving you effortless control over key features such as lighting automation, an IQ panel, a video doorbell, keyless front door entry, and temperature control from your smartphone. On the outside of this popular plan, you will see durable vinyl siding, a rear patio to enjoy the spacious back yard and the beautiful Florida weather.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Granite countertops
• Primary bedroom

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN AND LIVING AREA
• PRIMARY BEDROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ISLAND FOR EXTRA COUNTER SPACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SMART HOME TECHNOLOGY PACKAGE

🏗️ New construction. The $249,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $270,882.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.3% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tommy Smith Elementary School (math 46% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 639 students, 53% FRL); Merritt Brown Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 701 students, 55% FRL); Rutherford High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,337 students, 63% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1365 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 288 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 288 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.39%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,882
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -7.75%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7054 George Day Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-1%)	12mo	$249,400	$196	81
7094 George Day Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-1%)	12mo	$248,400	$195	79
6251 Chapman Ln	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,458 (+14%)	15mo	$285,000	$195	56
6645 Slabinski Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,270 (-1%)	12mo	$295,000	$232	55
4948 Shurer Ln	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,394 (+9%)	13mo	$289,500	$208	53
4937 Shurer Ln	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,387 (+8%)	18mo	$285,000	$205	52
6558 Canley Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,383 (+8%)	5mo	$267,500	$193	51
4900 Shurer Ln	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,417 (+11%)	17mo	$288,322	$203	48
5114 Debi Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,424 (+11%)	11mo	$280,000	$197	42
6514 Canley Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,427 (+11%)	20mo	$271,900	$191	36
6615 Kettles St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,398 (+9%)	21mo	$241,584	$173	33
6593 Canley Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,398 (+9%)	22mo	$234,900	$168	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-53,653
• Equity at exit: $40,389

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-70,362
• Equity at exit: $23,421

Cash invested: $75,847 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 27 active · 32 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.6 mo (22%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $279,900 ($206/sqft)
• Median days on market: 128 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +2.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1365
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,258 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,421
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$339 /mo · $4,063/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,370

Max offer price $258,160

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $99	-5% $6	+0% $-88	+5% $-182	+10% $-275
Rent	-10% $-266	-5% $-177	+0% $-88	+5% $1	+10% $90
Rate	-1.0pp $49	-0.5pp $-19	base $-88	+0.5pp $-158	+1.0pp $-230

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,720
• Closing costs: $8,126
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4809 Conner Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,700	$1.48	2d	1	0.21mi
6416 Bellavia Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1812	$2,100	$1.16	109d	1	0.24mi
4897 Shurer Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,375	$1.30	6d	1	0.30mi
4800 N Star Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$1,882	$1.71	0d	14	0.42mi
6541 Slabinski Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,300	$1.29	6d	1	0.53mi
6592 Kettles St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1427	$1,995	$1.40	2d	1	0.74mi
5140 N Star Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1476	$2,200	$1.49	6d	1	0.74mi
6660 Slabinski Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$2,500	$1.97	2d	1	0.80mi
6970 William Pitsenbarger Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,950	$1.51	6d	1	0.87mi
4840 McCall Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,300	$1.27	6d	1	0.92mi
5419 Blue Dog Rd Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,300	$1.28	6d	1	0.96mi
5424 Nicole Blvd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,000	$1.42	6d	1	0.99mi
5020 Pretty Way Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,150	$1.21	6d	1	1.16mi
5284 Emma Grace Dr Panama City, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2117	$2,155	$1.02	6d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $249,900 Active 288 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $249,900 Active 287 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $249,900 Active 285 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $249,900 Active 284 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 283 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 282 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 281 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 280 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 279 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $249,900 Active 278 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $249,900 Active 277 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $249,900 Active 276 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 270 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 269 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 268 DOM
16. 2026-08-29
    days on market $249,900 Active 263 DOM
17. 2026-08-28
    days on market $249,900 Active 262 DOM
18. 2026-08-27
    days on market $249,900 Active 261 DOM
19. 2026-08-26
    days on market $249,900 Active 260 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $249,900 Active 259 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $249,900 Active 258 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    pricedays on market $249,900 Active 257 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $244,900 Active 256 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $244,900 Active 255 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $244,900 Active 254 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $244,900 Active 253 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $244,900 Active 252 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $244,900 Active 251 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $244,900 Active 250 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $244,900 Active 249 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $244,900 Active 248 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $244,900 Active 247 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $244,900 Active 246 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $244,900 Active 245 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $244,900 Active 244 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $244,900 Active 243 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $244,900 Active 242 DOM
38. 2026-08-07
    days on market $244,900 Active 241 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $244,900 Active 240 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $244,900 Active 239 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $244,900 Active 238 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $244,900 Active 237 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $244,900 Active 234 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $244,900 Active 233 DOM
45. 2026-07-29
    days on market $244,900 Active 232 DOM
46. 2026-07-27
    days on market $244,900 Active 230 DOM
47. 2026-07-25
    days on market $244,900 Active 228 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $244,900 Active 226 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $244,900 Active 225 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $244,900 Active 224 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,174
• − Property taxes: −$4,063
• − Insurance: −$1,354
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,168
• − Management: −$2,168
• − Depreciation: −$7,880
• Taxable loss: −$5,707
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,370
• After-tax cash flow: $315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minimal maintenance required. The highest-ROI updates include painting the exterior siding, replacing carpet in bedrooms, and adding smart home features and outdoor lighting.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can add value. ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance, attracting more buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and can attract tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Improves safety and enhances curb appeal, attracting more buyers/renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Tommy Smith Elementary School D FL #1,152/2,144 Nat'l #14,081/41,679 Middle Merritt Brown Middle School F FL #388/571 Nat'l #6,571/14,009 High Rutherford High School F FL #489/667 Nat'l #12,196/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 206,264 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $244,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $254,900 Zillow
• 2025-12-10 Listed $252,900 Zillow