2702 Milhorn St · Chester, VA 23834

$235,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,410 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1957 0.32 ac lot $167/sqft · 21% below area Est $299k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming newly renovated Cape Cod-style home in a great location! Situated on over a quarter of an acre, this property offers a peaceful setting with spacious front and back yards perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying nature. Inside, you'll find inviting living spaces filled with character and warmth, plus a finished attic that adds versatile bonus space for a bedroom, office, playroom, or retreat. A wonderful opportunity to enjoy comfort, charm, and convenience all in one. Ask about a package deal with another home in Chesterfield! * Seller financing available.

Key facts

• Cape cod-style home
• Finished attic
• Peaceful setting

Tags

• CAPE COD-STYLE HOME
• FINISHED ATTIC
• SPACIOUS FRONT AND BACK YARDS
• PEACEFUL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($250/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.6% in Chester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#170 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask is 18% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $96k; list at $235k implies a 146% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 40% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,983 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.38%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,077
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -21.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2702 Milhorn St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,410 (0%)	1mo	$227,000	$161	98
2708 Tinstree Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-3%)	6mo	$262,000	$192	75
15806 Roland View Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,444 (+2%)	9mo	$255,000	$177	70
16117 Tipton Ct	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (-6%)	6mo	$312,000	$236	67
15910 Gary Ave	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,436 (+2%)	1mo	$307,000	$214	65
15910 Hill St	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,568 (+11%)	4mo	$352,000	$224	61
3200 Sylvania Pl	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+7%)	2mo	$340,000	$225	61
15720 Timberline Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,588 (+13%)	4mo	$249,500	$157	60
3105 Lalonde Dr	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,200 (-15%)	8mo	$290,000	$242	50
16100 Gary Ave	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,248 (-12%)	10mo	$257,000	$206	47
3043 Amherst Ridge Way	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-8%)	11mo	$298,000	$229	42
15601 Meridian Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,592 (+13%)	10mo	$325,989	$205	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-27,821
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $17,736
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23834

• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,797/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,873

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $154	-5% $87	+0% $21	+5% $-46	+10% $-112
Rent	-10% $-129	-5% $-54	+0% $21	+5% $96	+10% $171
Rate	-1.0pp $139	-0.5pp $81	base $21	+0.5pp $-40	+1.0pp $-102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16208 Pauline Ave Chester, VA	4.0	2.0	1496	$2,195	$1.47	45d	1	0.62mi
15151 Timsberry Cir Chester, VA	3.0–4.0	2.5	1586	$1,598	$1.01	3d	30	0.90mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 580-char remark

   Show marketing remark (580 chars)

   Charming newly renovated Cape Cod-style home in a great location! Situated on over a quarter of an acre, this property offers a peaceful setting with spacious front and back yards perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying nature. Inside, you'll find inviting living spaces filled with character and warmth, plus a finished attic that adds versatile bonus space for a bedroom, office, playroom, or retreat. A wonderful opportunity to enjoy comfort, charm, and convenience all in one. Ask about a package deal with another home in Chesterfield! * Seller financing available.

2. 2026-04-24
   price $235,000 580-char remark

   Show marketing remark (580 chars)

   Charming newly renovated Cape Cod-style home in a great location! Situated on over a quarter of an acre, this property offers a peaceful setting with spacious front and back yards perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying nature. Inside, you'll find inviting living spaces filled with character and warmth, plus a finished attic that adds versatile bonus space for a bedroom, office, playroom, or retreat. A wonderful opportunity to enjoy comfort, charm, and convenience all in one. Ask about a package deal with another home in Chesterfield! * Seller financing available.

3. 2026-04-20
   listed $199,950 Active 580-char remark

   Show marketing remark (580 chars)

   Charming newly renovated Cape Cod-style home in a great location! Situated on over a quarter of an acre, this property offers a peaceful setting with spacious front and back yards perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or enjoying nature. Inside, you'll find inviting living spaces filled with character and warmth, plus a finished attic that adds versatile bonus space for a bedroom, office, playroom, or retreat. A wonderful opportunity to enjoy comfort, charm, and convenience all in one. Ask about a package deal with another home in Chesterfield! * Seller financing available.

4. 2005-02-18
   soldstatus $95,500
5. 2005-02-17
   soldstatus $95,500 42-char remark

   Show marketing remark (42 chars)

   totally renovated. entered in MLS as comp.

6. 2005-02-17
   soldstatus $95,500

   Show marketing remark (42 chars)

   totally renovated. entered in MLS as comp.

7. 2005-01-10
   listed $95,500 42-char remark

   Show marketing remark (42 chars)

   totally renovated. entered in MLS as comp.

8. 2005-01-10
   listed $95,500

   Show marketing remark (42 chars)

   totally renovated. entered in MLS as comp.

9. 2004-04-01
   soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,797 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,927 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$130/yr (+$11/mo · 7.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 40% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,798
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,797
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,824
• − Management: −$1,824
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$3,822
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$917
• After-tax cash flow: $1,167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Chester

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #170
• US rank: #5369

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 54,827
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 26,628
• Household income: $84,338
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 814.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.28%
• Current HPI: 294.4478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.50%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+327.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $235,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $199,950 CVRMLS
• 2005-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $95,500 Public Records
• 2005-02-17 Sold (MLS) $95,500 CVRMLS
• 2005-02-17 Sold (MLS) $95,500 CVRMLS
• 2005-01-10 Listed $95,500 CVRMLS
• 2005-01-10 Listed $95,500 CVRMLS
• 2004-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,797 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.