16225 N Cave Creek Rd #79 · Phoenix, AZ 85032

$14,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 145 Days on market

Built 1972 $18/sqft · 67% below area ↓ 46% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**Honey stop the car this is it** Villa Carmel 55+Gated community. Cozy 2 bedroom 1 bathroom totally updated with new windows, paint, flooring, security door, lighting, eat in kitchen with a gas stove, pantry and plenty of cabinets, ceiling fans throughout, ample storage with linen closet and coat closet, washer, dryer and fridge convey, double walk in shower, pocket door can close off the bedrooms from the living area. N/S exposure.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Eat in kitchen
• Gas stove

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• UPDATED WITH NEW WINDOWS
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• GAS STOVE
• AMPLE STORAGE
• DOUBLE WALK IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $14k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $843 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $14k).
• Recommended offer: $13k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 76.0% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $100 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $435 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($13k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $12,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 76.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 249.11%
• DSCR: 12.08
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $43,624
• List price: $14,500
• Delta: -66.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16225 N Cave Creek Rd #106	0.11mi	2/1.0	720 (-10%)	12mo	$25,000	$35	68
2618 E Sandra Ter	0.13mi	3/1.5 (+1)	820 (+2%)	21mo	$170,000	$207	66
16225 N Cave Creek Rd #32	0.11mi	2/2.0	840 (+5%)	22mo	$79,900	$95	64
16225 N Cave Creek Rd #9	0.11mi	2/1.0	720 (-10%)	19mo	$9,000	$13	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.79×
• Total profit: $47,851
• Equity at exit: $2,162

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.98×
• Total profit: $97,343
• Equity at exit: $1,254

Cash invested: $4,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85032

• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,194 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$76
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$18 /mo · $218/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $843

Break-even live

Break-even rent $127

Max offer price $14,500

Occupancy floor 24%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,625
• Closing costs: $435
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16033 N 25th St Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	7d	1	0.12mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	21d	1	0.15mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	575	$942	$1.64	4d	6	0.15mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,159	$1.66	24d	1	0.15mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 312 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$856	$1.56	21d	1	0.15mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$829	$1.18	24d	1	0.15mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 112 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$856	$1.56	24d	1	0.15mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Apt 310 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	24d	1	0.15mi
2616 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 2624-2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	825	$1,095	$1.33	24d	1	0.18mi
2616 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 2624-4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	825	$999	$1.21	5d	1	0.18mi
16621 N 25th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	570	$899	$1.58	7d	1	0.25mi
16437 N 31st St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	687	$1,049	$1.53	2d	4	0.25mi
16627 N 25th St Unit 23 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	765	$1,145	$1.50	24d	1	0.30mi
2432 E Tracy Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,375	$1.38	18d	1	0.31mi
16801 N 26th St Apt 17 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	24d	1	0.35mi
2802 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	929	$950	$1.02	24d	1	0.37mi
2807 E Paradise Ln Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1124	$1,475	$1.31	24d	1	0.37mi
2807 E Le Marche Ave Apt 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	884	$995	$1.13	24d	1	0.37mi
2807 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$865	$0.96	24d	1	0.39mi
2826 E Le Marche Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	725	$1,000	$1.38	5d	1	0.41mi
2819 E Marconi Ave Unit 201 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$950	$1.06	24d	1	0.42mi
15651 N 27th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,300	$1.48	24d	1	0.42mi
2826 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	929	$1,295	$1.39	16d	1	0.42mi
2826 E Monte Cristo Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	929	$1,295	$1.39	14d	1	0.42mi
2814 E Kathleen Rd #102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	24d	1	0.43mi
15601 N 27th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	894	$1,422	$1.59	4d	2	0.45mi
2838 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	780	$1,200	$1.54	7d	1	0.45mi
2822 E Kathleen Rd Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	850	$1,100	$1.29	5d	1	0.46mi
2821 E Kathleen Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$900	$0.81	24d	1	0.46mi
2821 E Kathleen Rd Unit 101 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1106	$900	$0.81	24d	1	0.46mi
2844 E Marconi Ave Unit 101 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1123	$1,550	$1.38	21d	1	0.47mi
2837 E Marconi Ave Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$975	$1.08	24d	1	0.48mi
2837 E Marconi Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	24d	1	0.48mi
15425 N 25th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	677	$1,149	$1.70	7d	5	0.48mi
15601 N 27th St #18 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	888	$1,495	$1.68	13d	1	0.48mi
2718 E Beck Ln Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	950	$1,295	$1.36	24d	1	0.49mi
2846 E Kathleen Rd Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1106	$949	$0.86	24d	1	0.50mi
2846 E Kathleen Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$949	$0.86	24d	1	0.50mi
2726 E Beck Ln Unit 03 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	916	$1,295	$1.41	24d	1	0.50mi
2725 E Beck Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	916	$1,395	$1.52	14d	1	0.53mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $14,500 Active 145 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $14,500 Active 144 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $14,500 Active 143 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $14,500 Active 142 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $14,500 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $14,500 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $14,500 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $14,500 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $14,500 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $14,500 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $14,500 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $14,500 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $14,500 Active 128 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $14,500 Active 127 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $14,500 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    **Honey stop the car this is it** Villa Carmel 55+Gated community. Cozy 2 bedroom 1 bathroom totally updated with new windows, paint, flooring, security door, lighting, eat in kitchen with a gas stove, pantry and plenty of cabinets, ceiling fans throughout, ample storage with linen closet and coat closet, washer, dryer and fridge convey, double walk in shower, pocket door can close off the bedrooms from the living area. N/S exposure.

16. 2026-05-10
    price $19,999 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    **Honey stop the car this is it** Villa Carmel 55+Gated community. Cozy 2 bedroom 1 bathroom totally updated with new windows, paint, flooring, security door, lighting, eat in kitchen with a gas stove, pantry and plenty of cabinets, ceiling fans throughout, ample storage with linen closet and coat closet, washer, dryer and fridge convey, double walk in shower, pocket door can close off the bedrooms from the living area. N/S exposure.

17. 2026-03-03
    price $22,000 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    **Honey stop the car this is it** Villa Carmel 55+Gated community. Cozy 2 bedroom 1 bathroom totally updated with new windows, paint, flooring, security door, lighting, eat in kitchen with a gas stove, pantry and plenty of cabinets, ceiling fans throughout, ample storage with linen closet and coat closet, washer, dryer and fridge convey, double walk in shower, pocket door can close off the bedrooms from the living area. N/S exposure.

18. 2026-01-23
    listed $27,000 Active 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    **Honey stop the car this is it** Villa Carmel 55+Gated community. Cozy 2 bedroom 1 bathroom totally updated with new windows, paint, flooring, security door, lighting, eat in kitchen with a gas stove, pantry and plenty of cabinets, ceiling fans throughout, ample storage with linen closet and coat closet, washer, dryer and fridge convey, double walk in shower, pocket door can close off the bedrooms from the living area. N/S exposure.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,325
• − Mortgage interest: −$812
• − Property taxes: −$218
• − Insurance: −$72
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,146
• − Management: −$1,146
• − Depreciation: −$422
• Taxable income: $10,509
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,522
• After-tax cash flow: $7,592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 70,839
• Household income: $78,643
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2887.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 17% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 21% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -488.65%
• Current HPI: 339.4181
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.46%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-46.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $14,500 ARMLS
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $19,999 ARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $22,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $27,000 ARMLS