1219 Thomas Dr #289 · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$225,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 833 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2005 2,520 sqft lot Est $183k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome Home! This move-in ready 1-bedroom, 2-bath, 833 sq. ft. residence in Emerald Pointe Resort is perfect for your beach retreat in one of Panama City Beach's most desirable communities. Meticulously maintained as the owners' personal home--with no rental history--it shows in every detail. The spacious living room, large master bedroom, ensuite bathroom with a roomy walk-in shower, and separate dressing area featuring three closets provide comfort and convenience. A second bathroom accommodates guests; and the laundry room includes a full-size washer and dryer. There's also an expansive attached outdoor storage room, a 2-car carport, plus an additional carport that fits a golf cart or t

Key facts

• Gated community
• Fresh epoxy coating
• Move in ready

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• GATED COMMUNITY
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• FRESH EPOXY COATING
• STAINLESS KITCHEN APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: All units furnished (multi-unit property); Community pool is heated (electric heat) and gunite construction
• HOA & community: Homeowners association; Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, community pool, fitness center, dock, gazebo, barbecue, game room; Gated community; Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Gated parking; 3 covered spaces; Carport
• Security: Gated community; Security gate; Key card entry
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public sewer
• Home design: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Patio; Shed(s); Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Icemaker
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Storage space; Dumpster on site
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (first floor); Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-98/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patronis Elementary School (math 70% / reading 70%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 648 students, 42% FRL); Surfside Middle School (math 58% / reading 59%, grade B, #148 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 843 students, 48% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1032 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,195 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.16%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $183,260
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1219 Thomas Dr #296	0.00mi	1/2.0	828 (-1%)	7mo	$182,000	$220	89
1219 Thomas Dr #129	0.00mi	2/1.0 (+1)	768 (-8%)	10mo	$187,000	$243	74
1219 Thomas Dr #258	0.00mi	2/2.0 (+1)	844 (+1%)	18mo	$230,000	$273	73
1219 Thomas Dr #196	0.00mi	2/1.0 (+1)	776 (-7%)	21mo	$170,000	$219	66
2518 Shady Oak Ct	0.44mi	2/1.0 (+1)	784 (-6%)	2mo	$110,000	$140	63
1219 Thomas Dr #190	0.00mi	2/1.5 (+1)	780 (-6%)	23mo	$235,000	$301	63
1219 Thomas Dr #106	0.00mi	2/2.0 (+1)	928 (+11%)	22mo	$228,000	$246	54
2611 Willow Oak Ct	0.40mi	2/2.0 (+1)	924 (+11%)	9mo	$120,000	$130	47
6422 Summer Oak Dr	0.41mi	2/2.0 (+1)	924 (+11%)	11mo	$147,000	$159	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-37,847
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-37,155
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1032
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,652 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $474/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $-8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,662

Max offer price $223,560

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $119	-5% $56	+0% $-8	+5% $-72	+10% $-405
Rent	-10% $-139	-5% $-73	+0% $-8	+5% $57	+10% $122
Rate	-1.0pp $105	-0.5pp $49	base $-8	+0.5pp $-66	+1.0pp $-126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2340 Grand Oaks Ln Unit 1523381P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$4,240	$4.24	15d	1	0.27mi
447 Water Oak Cir Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	22d	1	0.59mi
7813 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	22d	1	0.79mi
2195 Wilkinson St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,526	$1.50	15d	41	0.94mi
2617 Cypress St Panama City, FL	1.0	1.0	720	$1,300	$1.81	22d	1	1.12mi
2526 Laurie Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	15d	1	1.23mi
7205 Thomas Dr Unit 1354970P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1044	$3,227	$3.09	22d	1	1.26mi
6427 Sunset Ave Unit 2 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,225	$1.36	22d	1	1.28mi
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$1,550	$1.43	15d	18	1.30mi
2216 Anne Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	951	$1,300	$1.37	15d	1	1.39mi
2301 Anne Ave Unit 8901 Laird Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,625	$1.81	15d	1	1.41mi
2521 Allison Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,450	$1.48	22d	1	1.44mi
8551 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,399	$1.45	15d	12	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $225,000 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $225,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $225,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $225,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $225,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $225,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $225,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-05-21
   listed $225,000 Active
9. 2026-05-06
   historical
10. 2025-11-05
    listed $229,000 Active
11. 2022-07-05
    soldstatus $229,000
12. 2021-12-14
    historical
13. 2008-05-21
    soldstatus $75,000
14. 2007-06-15
    listed $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $474 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,868 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,393/yr (+$116/mo · 293.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 40% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$474
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,586
• − Management: −$1,586
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,097
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$983
• After-tax cash flow: $885/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+181.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $225,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $229,000 CPARMLS
• 2022-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $229,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2008-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2007-06-15 Listed $79,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $474 · -60.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.