263 Friedell St · San Francisco, CA 94124

$428,441

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · Condo public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2016 $356/sqft · 42% below area Est $745k · 42% under $501/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3-bedroom Below Market Rate (BMR) housing opportunity available at 80% Area Median Income (AMI). Maximum income for 3 people = $112,200; 4 = $124,700, 5= $134,650; 6= $144,650 etc. Must be 1st-time homebuyer & income eligible. Unit available thru the Mayor's Office of Housing and Community Development (MOHCD) & subject to resale controls, monitoring & other restrictions. Unit will be listed on DAHLIA, the SF Housing Portal (https://housing. sfgov. org) starting on the application date, April 24, 2026. Visit https://housing. sfgov.org for application & program Info. Application, loan pre-approval, and homebuyer education verification due on May 21, 2026 at 5:00 P

Key facts

• $501 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2016

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; HOA fee $501 per month; HOA covers grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2 parking spaces (on site)
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Contemporary townhouse; Entry at ground level
• Construction: Built in 2016; Original condition
• Exterior features: Uncovered deck; Uncovered patio; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range hood; Microwave; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms (2 full, 1 half)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating
• Interior features: Central heating; Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $428k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $573 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $428k).
• Recommended offer: $416k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,192/mo this rent would consume 77% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 1605% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($416k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $415,587 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.73%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $744,512
• List price: $428,441
• Delta: -42.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-32,502
• Equity at exit: $63,882

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $20,429
• Equity at exit: $37,044

Cash invested: $119,963 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94124

• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,192 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,247
• Tax from tax record: −$603 /mo · $7,233/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$501
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,090
• Net cashflow: $573

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,467

Max offer price $428,441

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $816	-5% $694	+0% $573	+5% $452	+10% $330
Rent	-10% $163	-5% $368	+0% $573	+5% $778	+10% $983
Rate	-1.0pp $789	-0.5pp $682	base $573	+0.5pp $462	+1.0pp $349

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,110
• Closing costs: $12,853
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
298 Coleman St San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.5	1437	$5,600	$3.90	0d	1	0.07mi
100 Coleman St San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1436	$5,300	$3.69	44d	1	0.11mi
1475 Hawes St Unit B San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0	1175	$3,975	$3.38	44d	1	0.71mi
1398 Palou Ave San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,270	$3.27	44d	1	0.97mi
1566 Newcomb Ave San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1196	$4,290	$3.59	22d	1	1.15mi
4343 3rd St #205 San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1117	$5,500	$4.92	44d	1	1.26mi
1664-1668 Newcomb Ave Unit 1668 San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	850	$3,495	$4.11	2d	1	1.28mi
66 Bayview St San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0	1440	$4,995	$3.47	19d	1	1.34mi
5880 3rd St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	905	$4,394	$4.85	0d	4	1.44mi
1052 Jamestown Ave Unit 1052 San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.5	1250	$4,050	$3.24	25d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $501 · $6,012/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $428,441 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $428,441 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $428,441 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $428,441 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $428,441 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $428,441 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $428,441 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $428,441 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $428,441 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $428,441 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $428,441 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $428,441 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $428,441 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $428,441 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    listed $428,441 Active 785-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,233 · $603/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,233 · $603/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,999
• − Property taxes: −$7,233
• − Insurance: −$2,142
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,985
• − Management: −$4,985
• − HOA: −$6,012
• − Depreciation: −$12,464
• Taxable income: $490
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$118
• After-tax cash flow: $6,759/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 34,475
• Household income: $80,509
• Rent vs Own: 49.7% rent · 50.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1605.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 36% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 9% White 8% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 37% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Chinese 24% Spanish 20% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -909.13%
• Current HPI: 275.3568
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $428,441 San Francisco MLS

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,233 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.