2578 Tovar Trl #36 · Kachina Village, AZ 86005

$145,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 623 sqft · Manufactured · 54 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition Est $135k · 8% over ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• ARV discount +3.9/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This well-kept 2019 Cavco is truly move-in ready, located just a few miles south of town and tucked away in Kachina Village. The home features 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and an open kitchen and living room. Enjoy a nice deck for relaxing, along with a matching 10x12 shed--perfect for storage or your toys. The home is located on leased land in the Kachina Village Mobile Home Park, with a monthly lot rent of 950. Furnishings are negotiable.

Key facts

• Built 2019
• Listed 53 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on leased land
• HOA & community: Association amenities include trails; Property is in a community association

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: One-story home; Located in Kachina Village
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier foundation; Year built reported by owner
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); Paved road access; Sloped lot; Forest view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Wall/window cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Double pane windows; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in hall

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $146k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• Recommended offer: $142k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.4% in Kachina Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#85 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.1%/yr); 230 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($142k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,523 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.29%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $135,191
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2134 Chuska Ovi	0.40mi	2/1.0	600 (-4%)	14mo	$130,000	$217	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $5,380
• Equity at exit: $21,754

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $71,043
• Equity at exit: $12,615

Cash invested: $40,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86005

• Rents YoY: 9.1%
• Active inventory: 230
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,677 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$765
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$182 /mo · $2,188/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,276

Max offer price $145,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,475
• Closing costs: $4,377
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,900 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,900 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,900 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,900 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,900 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,900 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,900 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,900 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $145,900 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,900 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,900 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,900 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    remarks 440-char remark
14. 2026-05-31
    price $145,900 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,900 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $154,900 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-05-09
    price $154,900 438-char remark
18. 2026-04-22
    listed $159,900 Active 438-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,173
• − Property taxes: −$2,188
• − Insurance: −$730
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,609
• − Management: −$1,609
• − Depreciation: −$4,244
• Taxable income: $1,564
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$375
• After-tax cash flow: $3,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 2019 Cavco is move-in ready with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. A fresh coat of paint and some minor cleaning tasks would further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagstaff Unified District (4192)
• NCES district ID: 0402860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,510
• Composite: 21.11/100
• National rank: #8437
• State rank: #158 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Kachina Village

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #85
• US rank: #13165

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kachina Village, AZ
• County: Coconino County · 91,667 people
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 17,961
• Household income: $87,942
• Rent vs Own: 42.9% rent · 57.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 830.0

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Native American 9% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -287.98%
• Current HPI: 408.8541
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.13%
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listing Removed — NAZMLS
• 2026-05-31 Price Changed $145,900 NAZMLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $154,900 NAZMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $159,900 NAZMLS