3406 Lilac · Pine Bluff, AR 71603

$19,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1960 8,712 sqft lot Est $34k · 41% under ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY!! * * * IDEAL RENTAL/ AIR BNB * * * 3BD, 1.5 BATH ALL BRICK HOME IN WELL ESTABLISHED SUBDIVISION. Electrical still in place (holes in walls from vandalism) . PRICED TO SELL QUICKLY!!Note to Investor: 12 MINS TO SARCAREN CASINO & RESORT, DINING, SHOPPING, SCHOOLS ETC. GET ON THE FRONT END OF THIS CITY'S REGENTRIFICATION!! i THIS PROPERTY WILL NOT LAST LONG!! CALL LISTING AGENT TO SCHEDULE YOUR PRIVATE TOUR TODAY!! * * * SOLD STRICTLY AS-IS/FHA 203KK FINANCING * * * !! THIS PROPETY WILL NOT LAST LONG!! * * * AGENTS SEE REMARKS * * *

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $571 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($902 rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $18k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 40.7% vs local median 9.0% in Pine Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#483 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Watson Chapel School District (urban): math 10% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #228 of 238 in AR (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 62 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $597 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $17,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 40.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 123.06%
• DSCR: 6.48
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $33,792
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3502 Lilac	0.04mi	3/1.0	1,073 (+2%)	8mo	$80,000	$75	89
3307 Rose St	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-5%)	2mo	$18,000	$18	82
1718 S Marsh	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+2%)	10mo	$30,000	$28	70
2913 S Orlando	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,058 (+0%)	2mo	$33,500	$32	68
3408 Iris St	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,106 (+5%)	21mo	$32,000	$29	66
2813 S Orlando	0.43mi	3/1.0	974 (-8%)	4mo	$92,750	$95	64
3307 Daffodil St	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,175 (+11%)	22mo	$30,000	$26	58
2803 W 27	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (-7%)	4mo	$37,000	$38	54
3102 Jonquil	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,144 (+8%)	22mo	$13,636	$12	53
2804 W 30th Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	925 (-12%)	1mo	$40,000	$43	47
3506 W 12th Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	984 (-7%)	7mo	$25,000	$25	45
2917 Edgewood Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,192 (+13%)	12mo	$68,000	$57	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.96×
• Total profit: $33,184
• Equity at exit: $2,967

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.61×
• Total profit: $75,821
• Equity at exit: $1,721

Cash invested: $5,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71603

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $902 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $339/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $571

Break-even live

Break-even rent $178

Max offer price $19,900

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $583	-5% $577	+0% $571	+5% $566	+10% $560
Rent	-10% $500	-5% $536	+0% $571	+5% $607	+10% $643
Rate	-1.0pp $581	-0.5pp $576	base $571	+0.5pp $566	+1.0pp $561

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,975
• Closing costs: $597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3109 Daffodil St Pine Bluff, AR	3.0	1.0	980	$825	$0.84	44d	1	0.15mi
2319 W 27th Ave Unit B Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.0	907	$795	$0.88	44d	1	0.79mi
4324 Union Ave Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.0	702	$650	$0.93	44d	1	0.95mi
2001 W 28th Ave Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.0	729	$750	$1.03	44d	1	1.05mi
1907 W 28th Ave Pine Bluff, AR	3.0	1.5	947	$1,150	$1.21	44d	1	1.07mi
1107 S Cypress St Unit 1 Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.0	875	$700	$0.80	44d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-05-23
   status Under Contract
2. 2025-05-23
   status Back on Market
3. 2025-03-27
   historical
4. 2024-11-26
   historical Take Backups
5. 2024-10-31
   status Back on Market
6. 2024-10-21
   status Under Contract
7. 2024-10-20
   listed $19,900 New Listing
8. 2003-05-06
   soldstatus $31,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $339 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $339 · $28/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,115
• − Property taxes: −$339
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$866
• − Management: −$866
• − Depreciation: −$579
• Taxable income: $6,956
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,670
• After-tax cash flow: $5,187/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watson Chapel School District
• NCES district ID: 0513930
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,521
• Composite: 9.55/100
• National rank: #9845
• State rank: #228 of 238 in AR

Livability — Pine Bluff

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #483
• US rank: #25645

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Bluff, AR
• County: Jefferson County · 29,578 people
• City population: 29,578
• Metro: Pine Bluff, AR
• Population (ZIP): 29,578
• Household income: $53,130
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 657.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,110 people
• By 2030: 58,519 · -7.3%
• By 2040: 49,740 · -21.2%
• By 2050: 42,331 · -32.9%
• By 2075: 29,591 · -53.1%
• By 2100: 21,047 · -66.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 33% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.2% · R 39.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: 26.3pp · 2024: 20.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1 2020: D+21.7 2016: D+25.3 2012: D+29.0 2008: D+26.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.43%
• Current HPI: 206.5994
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pine Bluff, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-35.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-23 Pending — CARMLS
• 2025-05-23 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2025-03-27 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2024-11-26 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2024-10-31 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2024-10-21 Pending — CARMLS
• 2024-10-20 Listed $19,900 CARMLS
• 2003-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $339 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.