11070 NW 107th Ter · Manatee Road, FL 32626

$139,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1974 0.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Perfect starter or retirement home! This small 2 bedroom, 1 bath frame home is ready to be your new home. Designed as a winter only residence, there is no AC but window units or a mini-split can easily solve that dilemma. A screened porch all the way across the North end is a great place to spend your mornings and evenings enjoying the wildlife. Home can be sold completely furnished so that moving in will be a breeze for new owner. Home has custom hurricane protection for its windows, color coded to match the home. A very short drive to Manatee Springs State Park, Clay landing boat ramp or the Chiefland Golf & Country Club.

Key facts

• Screened porch
• 0.46 acre lot
• Built 1974

Tags

• SCREENED PORCH
• CUSTOM HURRICANE PROTECTION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built with vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Level, wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Washer; Vinyl flooring; 4 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.8% in Manatee Road — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#815 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Levy (rural): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 199 units permitted in Levy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Levy County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.51%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-7,071
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $13,895
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32626

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,464 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,434/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,154

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,900 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,900 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,434 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,434 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,434
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,405
• − Management: −$1,405
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $717
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$172
• After-tax cash flow: $2,769/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Levy
• NCES district ID: 1201140
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,254
• Composite: 36.42/100
• National rank: #4673
• State rank: #54 of 73 in FL

Livability — Manatee Road

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #815
• US rank: #19826

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manatee Road, FL
• Population (ZIP): 8,994

Population outlook (Levy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,536 people
• By 2030: 34,498 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 30,294 · -17.1%
• By 2050: 26,368 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 19,003 · -48.0%
• By 2100: 13,169 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Levy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.3) · D 24.6% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -50.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.3 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+44.8 2012: R+32.2 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.03%
• Current HPI: 282.05
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $139,900 DGLMLS

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,434 · +19.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.