12436 S Jasper Ave · Odessa, TX 79766

$229,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 208 Days on market

Built 1997 6.19 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Live the country lifestyle with the convenience of being just 15 minutes from Odessa. Situated on approximately 6 acres, this versatile property includes an 800 sq ft home, multiple workshops, a separate 1 bed / 1 bath apartment in a converted portable building, and a livestock barn with cross-fenced sections ideal for horses, cattle, or other livestock. A private water well supplies the property. With ample room to expand or develop, this is a great opportunity for those seeking space.

Key facts

• Livestock barn
• Separate apartment
• Private water well

Tags

• APPROXIMATELY 6 ACRES
• MULTIPLE WORKSHOPS
• SEPARATE APARTMENT
• LIVESTOCK BARN
• CROSS-FENCED SECTIONS
• PRIVATE WATER WELL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lauro Cavazos El (math 12% / reading 15%, grade F, #4,138 of 4,322 statewide, top 96%, 680 students, 83% FRL); Ector College Prep Success Academy (math 18% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 1,384 students, 72% FRL, charter); Permian H S (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,978 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,591 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $43,198
• Equity at exit: $128,504

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $138,534
• Equity at exit: $220,740

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79766

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,836 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,435/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,003

Max offer price $209,871

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $26	-5% $-53	+0% $-132	+5% $-211	+10% $-290
Rent	-10% $-277	-5% $-205	+0% $-132	+5% $-60	+10% $13
Rate	-1.0pp $-17	-0.5pp $-74	base $-132	+0.5pp $-192	+1.0pp $-252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,000 Active 208 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $229,000 Active 206 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 205 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 204 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 203 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 202 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,000 Active 200 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 199 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,000 Active 197 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $229,000 Active 196 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,000 Active 195 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 194 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 189 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 188 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 187 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,000 Active 186 DOM
17. 2026-04-17
    price $229,000 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Live the country lifestyle with the convenience of being just 15 minutes from Odessa. Situated on approximately 6 acres, this versatile property includes an 800 sq ft home, multiple workshops, a separate 1 bed / 1 bath apartment in a converted portable building, and a livestock barn with cross-fenced sections ideal for horses, cattle, or other livestock. A private water well supplies the property. With ample room to expand or develop, this is a great opportunity for those seeking space.

18. 2026-01-27
    price $259,000 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Live the country lifestyle with the convenience of being just 15 minutes from Odessa. Situated on approximately 6 acres, this versatile property includes an 800 sq ft home, multiple workshops, a separate 1 bed / 1 bath apartment in a converted portable building, and a livestock barn with cross-fenced sections ideal for horses, cattle, or other livestock. A private water well supplies the property. With ample room to expand or develop, this is a great opportunity for those seeking space.

19. 2025-11-26
    listed $279,000 Active 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Live the country lifestyle with the convenience of being just 15 minutes from Odessa. Situated on approximately 6 acres, this versatile property includes an 800 sq ft home, multiple workshops, a separate 1 bed / 1 bath apartment in a converted portable building, and a livestock barn with cross-fenced sections ideal for horses, cattle, or other livestock. A private water well supplies the property. With ample room to expand or develop, this is a great opportunity for those seeking space.

20. 2023-11-06
    price $60,000
21. 2022-12-28
    price $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,435
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,762
• − Management: −$1,762
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$5,563
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,335
• After-tax cash flow: $-251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 131,169
• Population (ZIP): 10,712

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 68% White 25% Two or more races 24% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 63%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.91%
• Current HPI: 222.3497
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+252.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $229,000 ODMLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $259,000 ODMLS
• 2025-11-26 Listed $279,000 ODMLS
• 2023-11-06 Price Changed $60,000 ODMLS
• 2022-12-28 Price Changed $65,000 ODMLS

Property tax history

-12.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $202 · +32.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.