24505 Peach Creek Dr · Patton Village, TX 77357

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 97 Days on market

Built 2015 0.56 ac lot $118/sqft · at area comps Est $191k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

iscover 24505 Peach Creek Dr, New Caney, TX 77357 — a beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath, 1,568?sq?ft home on over half an acre in peaceful Peach Creek Colony, ideal for families or investors seeking space and comfort in Montgomery County. Built in 2015, this open-plan home features a bright kitchen with center island, plentiful storage, and stylish flooring and finishes throughout, plus wheelchair accessibility and generous closet space. Start your day on the covered patio overlooking mature trees and a private cleared yard, perfect for outdoor living, gardening, or future expansion. Enjoy easy access to Hwy 59, 99, and 242 for effortless commuting to Houston and The Woodlands, while being minutes from local schools and community amenities. This property’s country feel with modern conveniences, no known flood history, and strong growth potential make it ideal for families, first-time buyers, and smart investors alike.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Covered patio
• No flooding history

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• BRIGHT KITCHEN ISLAND
• NO FLOODING HISTORY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $293 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $168k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 5.2% in Patton Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#977 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 984 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.78%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,761
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -3.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17626 Oak Hill Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-0%)	10mo	$195,000	$125	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-16,475
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-10,296
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 984
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,872 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,668/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,502

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $397	-5% $345	+0% $293	+5% $240	+10% $188
Rent	-10% $145	-5% $219	+0% $293	+5% $367	+10% $441
Rate	-1.0pp $386	-0.5pp $340	base $293	+0.5pp $245	+1.0pp $196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25625 Chestnut Ln Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$1,675	$1.07	25d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Pending 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Pending 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   status $185,000 Pending 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 76 DOM
17. 2026-03-16
    listed $185,000 Active 950-char remark

    Show marketing remark (950 chars)

    iscover 24505 Peach Creek Dr, New Caney, TX 77357 — a beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath, 1,568?sq?ft home on over half an acre in peaceful Peach Creek Colony, ideal for families or investors seeking space and comfort in Montgomery County. Built in 2015, this open-plan home features a bright kitchen with center island, plentiful storage, and stylish flooring and finishes throughout, plus wheelchair accessibility and generous closet space. Start your day on the covered patio overlooking mature trees and a private cleared yard, perfect for outdoor living, gardening, or future expansion. Enjoy easy access to Hwy 59, 99, and 242 for effortless commuting to Houston and The Woodlands, while being minutes from local schools and community amenities. This property’s country feel with modern conveniences, no known flood history, and strong growth potential make it ideal for families, first-time buyers, and smart investors alike.

18. 2026-03-16
    historical

    Show marketing remark (950 chars)

    iscover 24505 Peach Creek Dr, New Caney, TX 77357 — a beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath, 1,568?sq?ft home on over half an acre in peaceful Peach Creek Colony, ideal for families or investors seeking space and comfort in Montgomery County. Built in 2015, this open-plan home features a bright kitchen with center island, plentiful storage, and stylish flooring and finishes throughout, plus wheelchair accessibility and generous closet space. Start your day on the covered patio overlooking mature trees and a private cleared yard, perfect for outdoor living, gardening, or future expansion. Enjoy easy access to Hwy 59, 99, and 242 for effortless commuting to Houston and The Woodlands, while being minutes from local schools and community amenities. This property’s country feel with modern conveniences, no known flood history, and strong growth potential make it ideal for families, first-time buyers, and smart investors alike.

19. 2026-02-17
    listed $200,000 Active
20. 2026-02-17
    historical
21. 2025-12-31
    listed $200,000 Active
22. 2025-12-31
    historical
23. 2025-10-01
    listed $200,000 Active
24. 2025-10-01
    historical
25. 2025-08-19
    listed $200,000 Active
26. 2025-08-12
    historical
27. 2025-08-07
    listed $220,000 Active
28. 2025-08-06
    historical
29. 2025-03-24
    price $220,000
30. 2025-03-05
    listed $225,000 Active
31. 2025-02-13
    historical
32. 2023-07-07
    soldstatus Sold
33. 2023-06-28
    status Pending
34. 2023-06-19
    status Option Pending
35. 2023-06-01
    price $214,500
36. 2023-03-30
    listed $219,500 Active
37. 2020-09-18
    soldstatus Sold
38. 2020-08-06
    status Pending
39. 2020-07-26
    status Option Pending
40. 2020-07-21
    listed $170,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,668 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,717/yr (+$143/mo · 102.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,668
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,797
• − Management: −$1,797
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $533
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$128
• After-tax cash flow: $3,385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Patton Village

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #977
• US rank: #17313

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Patton Village, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+8.8% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-24 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-05 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-13 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2023-07-07 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-06-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-06-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-06-01 Price Changed $214,500 HARMLS
• 2023-03-30 Listed $219,500 HARMLS
• 2020-09-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-08-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-07-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-07-21 Listed $170,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,668 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.