77 Eagle St · Fredonia, NY 14063

$39,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,065 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 442 Days on market

Built 1872 4,014 sqft lot $37/sqft · 76% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is an investment or starter home opportunity. Located in the heart of the village of Fredonia this 3 bedroom/1 bathroom home offers plenty of potential. Vinyl siding, vinyl windows, new floring throughout. New hot water tank installed in 2021 and a gas forced air furnace in good working condition. This home appears as though it is attached to the neighboring home, it is not. There is separation between the two homes and each home sits on its own parcel. Within walking distance to downtown Fredonia restaurants, bars, shops, and businesses. Cash Only sale

Key facts

• Hot water tank
• Vinyl windows
• New flooring

Tags

• VINYL SIDING
• VINYL WINDOWS
• NEW FLOORING
• HOT WATER TANK
• GAS FORCED AIR FURNACE
• WALKING DISTANCE TO DOWNTOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $763 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.2% vs local median 3.4% in Fredonia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#95 in NY, #1,446 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: amenities C-, employment C-, crime F.
• Fredonia Central School District (town): math 55% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #376 of 590 in NY (top 64%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 442 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $40k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; built in 1872 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $35,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 442 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1872 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.93%
• DSCR: 4.65
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,780
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -75.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
117 Eagle St	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-2%)	13mo	$143,100	$138	80
19 Moore Ave	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-10%)	10mo	$63,000	$66	60
93 Seymour St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,120 (+5%)	2mo	$180,200	$161	57
31 Summer St	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,020 (-4%)	20mo	$42,000	$41	48
149 Eagle St	0.22mi	2/1.5 (-1)	960 (-10%)	23mo	$62,000	$65	47
97 Seymour St	0.72mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,140 (+7%)	6mo	$205,000	$180	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.78×
• Total profit: $42,180
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 85.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.91×
• Total profit: $99,541
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14063

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,408/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $763

Break-even live

Break-even rent $434

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
188 W Main St Fredonia, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	44d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 442 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 441 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 440 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 439 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 437 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,900 Active 436 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 433 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 432 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 431 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 430 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $39,900 Active 427 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 426 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 425 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 424 DOM
15. 2025-04-02
    listed $39,900 Active 569-char remark

    Show marketing remark (569 chars)

    This home is an investment or starter home opportunity. Located in the heart of the village of Fredonia this 3 bedroom/1 bathroom home offers plenty of potential. Vinyl siding, vinyl windows, new floring throughout. New hot water tank installed in 2021 and a gas forced air furnace in good working condition. This home appears as though it is attached to the neighboring home, it is not. There is separation between the two homes and each home sits on its own parcel. Within walking distance to downtown Fredonia restaurants, bars, shops, and businesses. Cash Only sale

16. 2024-01-13
    historical
17. 2023-04-13
    status Active
18. 2023-03-26
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
19. 2023-02-13
    listed $49,900 Active
20. 2021-03-04
    soldstatus $20,000 Closed Sale or Rented
21. 2020-12-20
    status Pending Sale
22. 2020-12-07
    listed $29,000 Active
23. 2020-12-06
    historical
24. 2020-10-14
    status Active
25. 2020-09-02
    status Pending Sale
26. 2020-08-22
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
27. 2020-06-05
    listed $29,000 Active
28. 2015-07-01
    soldstatus $6,000
29. 2015-03-19
    listed $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,408 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,408 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$1,408
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $9,109
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,186
• After-tax cash flow: $6,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fredonia Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611520
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $48,491
• Composite: 43.1/100
• National rank: #3086
• State rank: #376 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fredonia

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #1446

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fredonia, NY
• Population (ZIP): 12,722

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Italian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.55%
• Current HPI: 253.5334
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+134.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-02 Listed $39,900 UNYREIS
• 2024-01-13 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2023-04-13 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2023-03-26 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2023-02-13 Listed $49,900 UNYREIS
• 2021-03-04 Sold (MLS) $20,000 UNYREIS
• 2020-12-20 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2020-12-07 Listed $29,000 UNYREIS
• 2020-12-06 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2020-10-14 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2020-09-02 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2020-08-22 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2020-06-05 Listed $29,000 UNYREIS
• 2015-07-01 Sold (MLS) $6,000 UNYREIS
• 2015-03-19 Listed $17,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,408 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.