3085 John Wells Rd · Gumbranch, GA 31313

$280,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,976 sqft · Other public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2025 1.00 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss out on this Charming NEW 4 bedroom / 3 bathroom home that HAS IT ALL !!! Open and inviting floor plan, elegant white cabinetry, upgraded lighting fixtures and recessed lighting. Complete modern home essentials with a comfortable layout. Double vanity in master bathroom with a separate tub/shower. Brand new appliances ! Home has a 1 year manufacture warranty. VISIT the property today. House is of a model and represent similar finishes. Photos of lawn enhanced for representation. Seller is a licensed Realtor in GA. Agent Remarks: Listing office does not hold earnest money. Preferred attorney is Jones, Osteen, & Jones. Home comes with 1 year manufacture warranty. Water Heater, HVAC and roof will have a manufacture warranty. Do not hesitate to reach out any time for questions. Seller is a licensed Realtor in GA. Office

Key facts

• Large center island
• Split bedroom layout
• Abundant cabinetry

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE
• SPLIT BEDROOM LAYOUT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic system; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Underground utilities; Well water; Septic tank

Interior

• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($423/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#365 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Liberty County (urban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 174 in GA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 471 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $224,466 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.54%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-37,641
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-6,212
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31313

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,245 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,836/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,200

Max offer price $280,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $194	-5% $114	+0% $35	+5% $-44	+10% $-123
Rent	-10% $-142	-5% $-53	+0% $35	+5% $124	+10% $213
Rate	-1.0pp $176	-0.5pp $106	base $35	+0.5pp $-37	+1.0pp $-111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $280,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $280,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $280,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $280,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $280,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $280,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $280,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $280,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
15. 2026-06-03
    listed $280,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,836 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,576 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: +$740/yr (+$62/mo · 40.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$1,836
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,155
• − Management: −$2,155
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$4,440
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,066
• After-tax cash flow: $1,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty County
• NCES district ID: 1303300
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $43,911
• Composite: 20.2/100
• National rank: #8630
• State rank: #133 of 174 in GA

Livability — Gumbranch

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #365
• US rank: #18664

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 58,565 people
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 42,838
• Household income: $60,233
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1693.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,689 people
• By 2030: 57,670 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 55,750 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 54,155 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 58,947 · +0.4%
• By 2100: 66,919 · +14.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: D (+17.4) · D 58.5% · R 41.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 28.4pp · 2024: 17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.4 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+30.2 2008: D+28.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.50%
• Current HPI: 208.0927
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.41%
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+12.0% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $280,000 Hive MLS
• 2024-11-15 Sold (MLS) $260,000 HABR
• 2024-11-01 Pending — HABR
• 2024-10-31 Price Changed $249,988 HABR
• 2024-10-28 Price Changed $249,989 HABR
• 2024-10-25 Price Changed $249,990 HABR
• 2024-10-24 Price Changed $249,991 HABR
• 2024-10-23 Price Changed $249,993 HABR
• 2024-10-22 Price Changed $249,994 HABR
• 2024-10-21 Price Changed $249,995 HABR
• 2024-10-18 Price Changed $249,996 HABR
• 2024-10-17 Price Changed $249,997 HABR
• 2024-10-16 Price Changed $249,998 HABR
• 2024-10-15 Price Changed $249,999 HABR
• 2024-10-14 Price Changed $250,000 HABR
• 2024-10-14 Price Changed $249,985 HABR
• 2024-10-11 Price Changed $249,986 HABR
• 2024-10-10 Price Changed $249,987 HABR
• 2024-10-08 Price Changed $249,988 HABR
• 2024-10-07 Price Changed $249,989 HABR
• 2024-10-04 Price Changed $249,990 HABR
• 2024-10-02 Price Changed $249,991 HABR
• 2024-09-30 Price Changed $249,992 HABR
• 2024-09-26 Price Changed $249,993 HABR
• 2024-09-24 Price Changed $249,994 HABR
• 2024-09-24 Price Changed $249,995 HABR
• 2024-09-20 Price Changed $249,996 HABR
• 2024-09-18 Price Changed $249,997 HABR
• 2024-09-16 Price Changed $249,998 HABR
• 2024-09-13 Price Changed $249,999 HABR
• 2024-09-11 Listed $250,000 HABR