162 Bagsby Hill Ln · Dover, TN 37058

$174,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1995 0.40 ac lot ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home situated near the heart of Dover. This home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and modern updates. Step inside to find fresh interior paint, updated flooring, and stylish new light fixtures that create a bright and inviting atmosphere throughout. The kitchen has been refreshed with updated cabinets, appliances, and plumbing fixtures, making it both functional and appealing for everyday living and entertaining. Major improvements provide peace of mind, including a newer HVAC system (approximately 8 years old), a roof replaced just 5 years ago with architectural shingles and gutter guards, and a brand-new

Key facts

• Updated cabinets
• Updated flooring
• New light fixtures

Tags

• UPDATED FLOORING
• NEW LIGHT FIXTURES
• UPDATED CABINETS
• NEWER HVAC SYSTEM
• ROOF REPLACED
• GUTTER GUARDS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with gravel surface
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water available; Septic tank; Electricity available
• Home design: Residential mobile home; One story; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Shingle roof; Year built: existing
• Exterior features: Deck; Level to rolling-slope lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level); Extra-large closets in multiple bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Crawl space; Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#98 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Stewart County (rural): math 36% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #30 of 139 in TN (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Stewart Elementary (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #164 of 952 statewide, top 19%, 432 students, 0% FRL); Stewart Co High School (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #215 of 332 statewide, top 67%, 627 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Stewart County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Stewart County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,560 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.88%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $104,830
• Equity at exit: $156,753

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.18×
• Total profit: $300,865
• Equity at exit: $338,044

Cash invested: $48,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37058

• Home prices YoY: 9.3%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,722 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$218 /mo · $2,610/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,522

Max offer price $174,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,500
• Closing costs: $5,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $174,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $174,000
16. 2026-04-26
    price $195,000
17. 2026-04-02
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,660
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,747
• − Property taxes: −$2,610
• − Insurance: −$870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,653
• − Management: −$1,653
• − Depreciation: −$5,062
• Taxable loss: −$934
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$224
• After-tax cash flow: $2,116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stewart County
• NCES district ID: 4703960
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,035
• Composite: 29.92/100
• National rank: #6383
• State rank: #30 of 139 in TN

Livability — Dover

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #10364

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,369

Population outlook (Stewart County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,019 people
• By 2030: 12,780 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 12,152 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 11,484 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 10,249 · -21.3%
• By 2100: 9,338 · -28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Serbian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stewart

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.9) · D 17.5% · R 81.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -55.1pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -63.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.9 2020: R+59.0 2016: R+50.0 2012: R+17.5 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 24.47%
• Current HPI: 286.5122
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-22.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $174,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $195,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed $225,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2014): $238 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.