13 Alder Ln · South Thomaston, ME 04858

$320,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1991 1.00 ac lot $197/sqft · 22% below area Est $416k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Welcome to 13 Alder Lane, South Thomaston. This two-unit property offers a total of 1,624 square feet of living space on approximately 1 acre in an R-1 zone. Built in 1991, the home features a ranch-style layout with vinyl siding, a gable roof, and an attached garage, along with additional space including a carport and enclosed porch. Each unit consists of 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, providing a practical layout for tenants or owner-occupants. The property is heated by an oil-fired forced hot air system. Conveniently located just a short drive to downtown Rockland, offering access to shopping, restaurants, the harbor, and local amenities, while still providing a more private, residential set

Key facts

• Two-unit property
• Gable roof
• Attached garage

Tags

• TWO-UNIT PROPERTY
• RANCH-STYLE LAYOUT
• VINYL SIDING
• GABLE ROOF
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• CARPORT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 3-car attached garage with heated space; Carport; Paved parking with 5–10 spaces; On-site, off-street parking with direct entry to living
• Utilities: Private well water; Private sewer; Circuit breaker electrical service
• Home design: Single Family Residence; Single wide mobile home
• Construction: Built in 1991; Vinyl siding; Fiberglass shingle roof
• Exterior features: Rural, level lot; Private road frontage; Gravel and dirt road surface

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 (first level); Bedroom 2 (first level); Bedroom 3 (first level); Bedroom 4 (first level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Direct vent heater; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 9 total rooms; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($831/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• RSU 13 (town): math 77% / reading 85% proficiency, ranked #84 of 112 in ME (top 75%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Oceanside Middle School (math 74% / reading 86%, grade A+, #59 of 85 statewide, top 71%, 349 students, 52% FRL); Oceanside High School (math 82% / reading 87%, grade A, #75 of 108 statewide, top 83%, 525 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 160 units permitted in Knox County in 2024 (58 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (6.0% local appreciation)).
• Knox County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $90k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $144k; list at $320k implies a 123% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,700 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.93%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $415,666
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: -23.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.03% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $97,193
• Equity at exit: $201,676

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.15×
• Total profit: $282,127
• Equity at exit: $366,170

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04858

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 20.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,627 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,336/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,539

Max offer price $320,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $250	-5% $160	+0% $69	+5% $-21	+10% $-112
Rent	-10% $-138	-5% $-35	+0% $69	+5% $173	+10% $277
Rate	-1.0pp $230	-0.5pp $151	base $69	+0.5pp $-14	+1.0pp $-98

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,628
Total (2 units)			$2,627

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $320,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on marketlisting id $320,000 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on marketlisting id $335,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $320,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $320,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $320,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    listed $335,000 Active 921-char remark
15. 2026-05-04
    price $335,000 921-char remark
16. 2026-04-16
    listed $349,999 Active 921-char remark
17. 2018-05-24
    soldstatus $143,750 Sold
18. 2018-04-11
    status Pending
19. 2017-07-20
    price $125,000
20. 2017-07-19
    status Active
21. 2017-07-13
    historical
22. 2017-01-19
    price $149,900
23. 2017-01-12
    status Active
24. 2017-01-10
    historical
25. 2016-08-12
    status Active
26. 2016-08-08
    historical
27. 2016-07-15
    listed $169,900 Active
28. 2005-07-01
    soldstatus $132,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ME · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,336 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,344 · $279/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,008/yr (+$84/mo · 43.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥84°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$2,336
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,522
• − Management: −$2,522
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$4,690
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,126
• After-tax cash flow: $1,956/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 13
• NCES district ID: 2314787
• Math proficiency: 77% ▲ 51.00%
• Reading proficiency: 85% ▲ 36.00%
• Median HH income: $43,177
• Composite: 67.81/100
• National rank: #363
• State rank: #84 of 112 in ME

Livability — South Thomaston

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,400

Population outlook (Knox County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,304 people
• By 2030: 38,497 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 36,090 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 33,681 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 29,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 24,633 · -37.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 6% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Knox

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.2% · R 39.6% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: 21.4pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+19.9 2016: D+14.3 2012: D+22.6 2008: D+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.03%
• Current HPI: 393.2698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+142.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $320,000 MREIS
• 2026-05-25 Price Changed $320,000 MREIS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $335,000 MREIS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $335,000 MREIS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $349,999 MREIS
• 2018-05-24 Sold (MLS) $143,750 MREIS
• 2018-04-11 Pending — MREIS
• 2017-07-20 Price Changed $125,000 MREIS
• 2017-07-19 Relisted — MREIS
• 2017-07-13 Delisted — MREIS
• 2017-01-19 Price Changed $149,900 MREIS
• 2017-01-12 Relisted — MREIS
• 2017-01-10 Delisted — MREIS
• 2016-08-12 Relisted — MREIS
• 2016-08-08 Delisted — MREIS
• 2016-07-15 Listed $169,900 MREIS
• 2005-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,336 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.