2830 Joy Dr · Beavercreek, OH 45434

$279,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,179 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1964 0.52 ac lot $128/sqft · 20% below area Est $349k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the timeless appeal of this charming ranch-style residence, nestled in a lush green setting on a generous half acre lot. This property provides ample outdoor living space, complemented by mature trees and a verdant lawn. Nestled on a culdesac, this classic brick home offers comfort and enduring elegance, welcoming you with an inviting front entrance and an expansive front yard. Step inside to a welcoming foyer adorned with natural light and durable tile flooring. The expansive living area features a cozy brick double-sided fireplace and large windows that bathe the space in abundant natural light, including a charming bay window. Convenient sliding glass doors in the living room of

Key facts

• Verdant lawn
• Brick home
• Half acre lot

Tags

• HALF ACRE LOT
• OUTDOOR LIVING SPACE
• MATURE TREES
• VERDANT LAWN
• CULDESAC
• BRICK HOME

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property is offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Attached two-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Water available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; Brick construction
• Construction: Brick exterior
• Exterior features: Patio; Storage; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Three bathrooms located on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Multi-sided wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-422 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (26.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.3% in Beavercreek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#26 in OH, #239 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: commute F.
• Beavercreek City (suburban): math 70% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #79 of 656 in OH (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 797 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (148 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $204,901 (26.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.48%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,628
• List price: $279,500
• Delta: -19.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2830 Joy Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,179 (0%)	1mo	$276,000	$127	92
1326 Lemcke Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	2,187 (+0%)	3mo	$300,000	$137	75
1412 Devoe Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5	2,156 (-1%)	2mo	$351,800	$163	64
1176 Geneva Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,910 (-12%)	1mo	$295,000	$154	60
1359 Fudge Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,282 (+5%)	3mo	$335,000	$147	58
1155 Forest Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	2,268 (+4%)	7mo	$355,000	$157	54
1367 Howell Rd	0.59mi	3/2.5	2,342 (+8%)	6mo	$314,900	$134	53
2705 Blue Rock Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,946 (-11%)	4mo	$365,000	$188	50
1276 Meadow Bridge Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,920 (-12%)	2mo	$325,000	$169	47
2853 Oriole Dr	0.46mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,448 (+12%)	8mo	$343,000	$140	44
3050 Viola Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,015 (-8%)	6mo	$390,000	$194	41
1210 Lomeda Ln	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,950 (-10%)	8mo	$344,900	$177	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-72,036
• Equity at exit: $41,674

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-96,750
• Equity at exit: $24,166

Cash invested: $78,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45434

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,153 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,466
• Tax from tax record: −$541 /mo · $6,494/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,688

Max offer price $204,901

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,875
• Closing costs: $8,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3103 Glenshaw Dr Beavercreek, OH	4.0	2.5	1832	$2,200	$1.20	2d	1	1.09mi
1605 N Fairfield Rd Unit Na Dayton, OH	3.0	3.5	1600	$1,950	$1.22	44d	1	1.40mi
3033 Stardust Dr Beavercreek, OH	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,295	$1.42	3d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $279,500 Active 1866-char remark
2. 1973-12-31
   soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,494 · $541/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,494 · $541/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,656
• − Property taxes: −$6,494
• − Insurance: −$1,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,067
• − Management: −$2,067
• − Depreciation: −$8,131
• Taxable loss: −$9,974
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,394
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beavercreek City
• NCES district ID: 3904724
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $80,251
• Composite: 65.55/100
• National rank: #469
• State rank: #79 of 656 in OH

Livability — Beavercreek

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #239

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Beavercreek, OH
• County: Greene · 199,376 people
• City population: 27,951
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering-Beavercreek, OH
• Population (ZIP): 12,482
• Household income: $142,260
• Rent vs Own: 7.5% rent · 92.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 3.9

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 170,301 people
• By 2030: 171,840 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 171,408 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 167,806 · -1.5%
• By 2075: 154,430 · -9.3%
• By 2100: 138,669 · -18.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 39.5% · R 59.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+19.5 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+21.8 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.77%
• Current HPI: 237.5864
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+590.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Sold (MLS) $276,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-20 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $279,500 Dayton MLS
• 1973-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,494 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.