811 N Walnut St · Bay City, MI 48706

$129,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,416 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1910 5,662 sqft lot Est $140k · 7% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity knocks! Built-in 1910, this 4 bedroom home offers over 1,400 sq ft of living space and is Located in the heart of Bay City. On the main level you will find the kitchen, dining area, living room, bathroom and one of the bedrooms. Upstairs has an additional 3 well proportioned bedrooms. Complete with a full basement, a partially fenced yard, and a large shed, there is plenty of potential to add value and make it your own. The home has been vacant for some years providing a blank canvas for creative updates and renovations. Though it requires some work, the solid foundation and unbeatable city location make this an ideal investment for someone with vision and a knack for home improvement.

Key facts

• Extra-large driveway
• New furnace
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• NEW FULL BATHROOM
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW ROOF
• HIGH AND DRY BASEMENT
• EXTRA-LARGE DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.13 acres (50 ft frontage)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Natural gas service
• Home design: Residential 2-story home; Built in 1910; Entry and primary living areas on the main level
• Construction: Block foundation; Full basement; Below-grade area (unfinished) approximately 912
• Exterior features: Aluminum exterior; Frontage on a road; Shed on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (approx. 10 x 12); Appliances included: Dishwasher, Range/Oven, Microwave, Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Upper bedrooms with laminate flooring (approx. 11 x 10, 12 x 10, ~10 wide); Main-level bedroom with laminate flooring (approx. 14 x 7)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring throughout main living areas, bedrooms, and bathroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level) with laminate flooring
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heat with forced air
• Interior features: Basement (full, block foundation); Porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 6.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Handy Middle School (math 17% / reading 33%, grade F, #387 of 493 statewide, top 78%, 685 students, 79% FRL); Bay City Central High School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #372 of 713 statewide, top 56%, 1,033 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 44% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 248 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $130k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.88%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $140,184
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
811 N Walnut St	0.00mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,416 (0%)	0mo	$130,000	$92	95
700 E Fulton St	0.09mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,406 (-1%)	1mo	$103,000	$73	89
506 LITCHFIELD St	0.28mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,422 (+0%)	1mo	$119,900	$84	81
203 Elm St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,321 (-7%)	4mo	$125,000	$95	64
104 King St	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,600 (+13%)	3mo	$159,900	$100	64
204 Elm St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,520 (+7%)	2mo	$143,000	$94	62
401 E Florence St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-12%)	4mo	$125,000	$100	61
1308 N Dewitt St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,520 (+7%)	5mo	$150,000	$99	55
306 W Smith St	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,249 (-12%)	5mo	$130,000	$104	52
714 Frost Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+6%)	5mo	$178,000	$119	51
307 N Warner St	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,492 (+5%)	0mo	$142,000	$95	49
605 HANDY Dr	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,278 (-10%)	4mo	$220,000	$172	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $7,692
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $43,734
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,675 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,642/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,104

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $525	-5% $488	+0% $451	+5% $414	+10% $378
Rent	-10% $319	-5% $385	+0% $451	+5% $517	+10% $583
Rate	-1.0pp $517	-0.5pp $484	base $451	+0.5pp $417	+1.0pp $383

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	45d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-03
   listed $129,900 Active
3. 2025-04-09
   soldstatus $55,000
4. 2025-04-08
   soldstatus $55,000 Closed 706-char remark

   Show marketing remark (706 chars)

   Opportunity knocks! Built-in 1910, this 4 bedroom home offers over 1,400 sq ft of living space and is Located in the heart of Bay City. On the main level you will find the kitchen, dining area, living room, bathroom and one of the bedrooms. Upstairs has an additional 3 well proportioned bedrooms. Complete with a full basement, a partially fenced yard, and a large shed, there is plenty of potential to add value and make it your own. The home has been vacant for some years providing a blank canvas for creative updates and renovations. Though it requires some work, the solid foundation and unbeatable city location make this an ideal investment for someone with vision and a knack for home improvement.

5. 2025-03-30
   status Pending 706-char remark

   Show marketing remark (706 chars)

   Opportunity knocks! Built-in 1910, this 4 bedroom home offers over 1,400 sq ft of living space and is Located in the heart of Bay City. On the main level you will find the kitchen, dining area, living room, bathroom and one of the bedrooms. Upstairs has an additional 3 well proportioned bedrooms. Complete with a full basement, a partially fenced yard, and a large shed, there is plenty of potential to add value and make it your own. The home has been vacant for some years providing a blank canvas for creative updates and renovations. Though it requires some work, the solid foundation and unbeatable city location make this an ideal investment for someone with vision and a knack for home improvement.

6. 2025-03-26
   listed $59,900 Active 706-char remark

   Show marketing remark (706 chars)

   Opportunity knocks! Built-in 1910, this 4 bedroom home offers over 1,400 sq ft of living space and is Located in the heart of Bay City. On the main level you will find the kitchen, dining area, living room, bathroom and one of the bedrooms. Upstairs has an additional 3 well proportioned bedrooms. Complete with a full basement, a partially fenced yard, and a large shed, there is plenty of potential to add value and make it your own. The home has been vacant for some years providing a blank canvas for creative updates and renovations. Though it requires some work, the solid foundation and unbeatable city location make this an ideal investment for someone with vision and a knack for home improvement.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,642 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,821 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$179/yr (+$15/mo · 10.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,642
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $3,538
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$849
• After-tax cash flow: $4,564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+116.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-03 Listed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2025-04-08 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-03-30 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-03-26 Listed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,642 · -45.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.