189 NW Jordan Ct · Lake City, FL 32055

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1999 0.51 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming manufactured home offering a spacious layout and endless potential! Roof replaced 4-5 years ago per seller. Septic pumped in 2015. AC motor and fan replaced last year. This home features generously sized living areas, a functional floor plan, and plenty of natural light throughout. Ideal for buyers seeking value and potential at an affordable price point!

Key facts

• Septic pumped
• Roof replaced
• 0.51 acre lot

Tags

• ROOF REPLACED
• SEPTIC PUMPED
• AC MOTOR AND FAN REPLACED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property; A-3 zoning
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Chain link fencing; Shed(s); Private maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Washer
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $488 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 3.7% in Lake City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.43%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $96,405
• Equity at exit: $108,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.72×
• Total profit: $259,375
• Equity at exit: $233,134

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32055

• Home prices YoY: 24.1%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,542 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $612/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $924

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $556	-5% $522	+0% $488	+5% $454	+10% $420
Rent	-10% $366	-5% $427	+0% $488	+5% $549	+10% $610
Rate	-1.0pp $549	-0.5pp $519	base $488	+0.5pp $457	+1.0pp $425

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 36 DOM
18. 2026-04-24
    listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $612 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $996 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$384/yr (+$32/mo · 62.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,507
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$612
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,481
• − Management: −$1,481
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $4,121
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$989
• After-tax cash flow: $4,868/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #5154

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Columbia County · 40,507 people
• City population: 40,507
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,559
• Household income: $61,111
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 391.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 29% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 67.79%
• Current HPI: 348.8923
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $120,000 NFMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $612 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.