2513 44th St · Lubbock, TX 79413

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,018 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1954 7,950 sqft lot $94/sqft · 8% above area Est $175k · 8% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

RARE find!!! Updated 4 bed, 2 bath home in central Lubbock! This home has TONS of space with 3 living areas (one being a huge sun room with wood-burning stove), new paint and flooring throughout the inside as well as outside. New fixtures throughout, and new appliances as well. Outside is a large backyard with storage building! This home was recently appraised for $215K-so you are walking in with instant equity!! Also being sold as a package along with these addresses- 2804 2nd Place, 2715 39th Street

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Storage building
• Central lubbock

Tags

• CENTRAL LUBBOCK
• 3 LIVING AREAS
• HUGE SUN ROOM
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• LARGE BACKYARD
• STORAGE BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-43/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 183 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,489 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,814
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: 8.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-32,586
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-35,617
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79413

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,675 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,083/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,679

Max offer price $188,363

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2609 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,550	$1.06	21d	1	0.21mi
2403 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1786	$1,700	$0.95	44d	1	0.42mi
2508 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,700	$1.14	44d	1	0.47mi
2801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,700	$1.87	44d	1	0.58mi
2107 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1956	$1,200	$0.61	44d	1	0.60mi
2215 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,450	$0.92	44d	1	0.62mi
3108 39th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,295	$0.86	21d	1	0.68mi
2601 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1894	$1,800	$0.95	21d	1	0.69mi
3114 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,375	$0.92	44d	1	0.69mi
2823 54th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1725	$1,825	$1.06	44d	1	0.74mi
1718 43rd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1870	$1,075	$0.57	21d	1	0.86mi
2121 56th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2047	$1,999	$0.98	21d	1	0.86mi
2430 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,450	$0.91	44d	1	0.87mi
2614 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1549	$1,650	$1.07	44d	1	0.87mi
3019 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1573	$1,500	$0.95	14d	1	0.87mi
3312 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1880	$1,795	$0.95	44d	1	0.88mi
2613 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,500	$1.02	44d	1	0.90mi
2518 30th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1558	$1,750	$1.12	21d	1	0.93mi
1919 34th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1463	$1,100	$0.75	14d	1	0.93mi
2310 59th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	2637	$1,900	$0.72	44d	1	0.94mi
2416 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1746	$1,425	$0.82	21d	1	0.94mi
3404 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,500	$1.02	44d	1	0.95mi
3115 32nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.5	2300	$2,200	$0.96	21d	1	0.99mi
3417 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	44d	1	1.04mi
3415 49th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,350	$0.96	44d	1	1.04mi
3408 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1927	$1,895	$0.98	44d	1	1.05mi
2319 28th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2146	$1,650	$0.77	21d	1	1.06mi
2220 29th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2032	$1,300	$0.64	44d	1	1.07mi
3505 46th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1686	$1,550	$0.92	44d	1	1.08mi
2701 27th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1569	$1,800	$1.15	44d	1	1.08mi
2725 63rd St Unit FS Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,599	$0.98	44d	1	1.22mi
3612 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,850	$1.10	44d	1	1.24mi
2311 25th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	21d	1	1.27mi
3119 26th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1888	$1,400	$0.74	21d	1	1.30mi
3302 28th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1660	$1,725	$1.04	21d	1	1.30mi
3423 56th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2224	$1,895	$0.85	44d	1	1.32mi
2511 23rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1428	$1,500	$1.05	21d	1	1.33mi
3708 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2378	$1,750	$0.74	14d	1	1.34mi
2117 65th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2285	$1,975	$0.86	21d	1	1.35mi
3712 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1767	$1,400	$0.79	21d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on marketlisting id $189,000 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,000 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 125 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,000 Active 124 DOM
17. 2026-01-13
    listed $189,000 Active 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    RARE find!!! Updated 4 bed, 2 bath home in central Lubbock! This home has TONS of space with 3 living areas (one being a huge sun room with wood-burning stove), new paint and flooring throughout the inside as well as outside. New fixtures throughout, and new appliances as well. Outside is a large backyard with storage building! This home was recently appraised for $215K-so you are walking in with instant equity!! Also being sold as a package along with these addresses- 2804 2nd Place, 2715 39th Street

18. 2024-09-11
    price $185,000
19. 2024-09-11
    historical $1,650
20. 2024-09-06
    listed $1,650
21. 2024-08-30
    historical $1,750
22. 2024-07-02
    listed $1,750
23. 2024-06-13
    price $189,900
24. 2024-05-24
    price $194,900
25. 2019-11-14
    soldstatus
26. 2019-11-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,083 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,459 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: +$376/yr (+$31/mo · 12.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,099
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$3,083
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$3,230
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$775
• After-tax cash flow: $732/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,343
• Household income: $69,400
• Rent vs Own: 43.9% rent · 56.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 18% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.52%
• Current HPI: 239.8854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Listed $189,000 LARMLS
• 2024-09-11 Price Changed $185,000 LARMLS
• 2024-09-11 Rental Removed $1,650 LARMLS
• 2024-09-06 Listed for Rent $1,650 LARMLS
• 2024-08-30 Rental Removed $1,750 LARMLS
• 2024-07-02 Listed for Rent $1,750 LARMLS
• 2024-06-13 Price Changed $189,900 LARMLS
• 2024-05-24 Price Changed $194,900 LARMLS
• 2019-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,083 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.