702 Ellsworth Pl · Palo Alto, CA 94306

$2,880,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,906 sqft · Other · 15 Days on market

Built 2026 4,493 sqft lot $1511/sqft · 22% below area Est $3681k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +7.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.2/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand New Single-Story Masterpiece, accessible via a private road at the front, with no immediate rear neighbors. Quiet & peaceful inside with an ultra-convenient location. Great value - the lowest price per square foot you will find for a newly constructed single-family home in Palo Alto belonging to the Palo Alto High School attendance area. Step inside and experience the immediate "wow" factor of soaring high ceilings throughout the entire home. From the premium finishes to the brand-new systems, this home offers the rare opportunity to enjoy the vibrant energy of Palo Alto with the privacy of a secluded retreat. Bright kitchen w/ island, beautiful quartzite countertops, Thermador appliances, modern cabinetry, gas cooking range w/ 6 gas burners, Wide-plank engineering wood flooring, Nest thermostat, & stone pavers. Conveniently located with easy access to major tech campuses, Stanford University, Midtown shopping area, Town & Country Village, top-rated Palo Alto High School, and Highway 101 truly convenient to everywhere.

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Private road
• Thermador appliances

Tags

• PRIVATE ROAD
• NO IMMEDIATE REAR NEIGHBORS
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• QUARTZITE COUNTERTOPS
• THERMADOR APPLIANCES
• GAS COOKING RANGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: City transfer tax applicable; Property ID 724111

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage; Electric vehicle Level 2 (240V) hookup
• Utilities: Public water with individual water meter; Water on site; Public sewer and septic connected; Public utilities available; Natural gas
• Home design: Detached property; Single-story; Completed, never occupied; Level lot; R1 zoning
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Crawl space; Flat/low-pitch roof; Built as new (never occupied)
• Exterior features: Fenced yard (wood fence, fenced back); Automatic lawn sprinklers; Sprinkler system

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Built-in gas oven/oven range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Quartz countertops; 220V outlet
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central forced air heating; Solar heating; Central forced air cooling; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Walk-in closet; Networked; Double-pane windows; Energy Star HVAC; Green/resource efficient features; Sealed crawlspace; Thermostat controller
• Laundry & utility: Laundry hookups inside with 220V; Individual electric meters; Individual gas meters; Solar panels (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $2.88M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12k ($-140k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $823k (71.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $726k (74.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $726k (74.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.4% vs local median 0.4% in Palo Alto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#19 in CA, #821 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Palo Alto Unified (urban): math 79% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #19 of 517 in CA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: El Carmelo Elementary (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #122 of 1,571 statewide, top 8%, 317 students, 18% FRL); Palo Alto High (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A, #21 of 1,170 statewide, top 2%, 1,992 students, 10% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 40 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,838 units permitted in Santa Clara County in 2024 (1,886 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($210k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $20k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $65k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Clara County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($2.84M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.40M; list at $2.88M implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $726,416 (74.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.25% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.33%
• DSCR: 0.23
• GRM: 33.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $3,681,154
• List price: $2,880,000
• Delta: -21.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.25% appreciation · 6.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-1,093,161
• Equity at exit: $526,361

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.8%
• Equity multiple: -1.13×
• Total profit: $-1,720,503
• Equity at exit: $418,771

Cash invested: $806,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94306

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 33.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,264 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$15,103
• Tax from tax record: −$1,080 /mo · $12,959/yr
• Insurance: −$1,200
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,525
• Net cashflow: $-11,644

Break-even live

Break-even rent $22,004

Max offer price $822,995

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-10,014	-5% $-10,829	+0% $-11,644	+5% $-12,459	+10% $-13,275
Rent	-10% $-12,218	-5% $-11,931	+0% $-11,644	+5% $-11,357	+10% $-11,070
Rate	-1.0pp $-10,194	-0.5pp $-10,912	base $-11,644	+0.5pp $-12,391	+1.0pp $-13,150

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $720,000
• Closing costs: $86,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
591 Saint Claire Dr Palo Alto, CA	3.0	2.0	1748	$9,200	$5.26	44d	1	0.41mi
260 Colorado Ave Palo Alto, CA	3.0	1.5	1350	$6,750	$5.00	3d	1	0.61mi
283 Margarita Ave Palo Alto, CA	4.0	3.0	2299	$9,495	$4.13	24d	1	0.83mi
3596 Louis Rd Palo Alto, CA	4.0	2.5	1892	$8,000	$4.23	4d	1	0.84mi
1094 Tanland Dr Palo Alto, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1026	$7,500	$7.31	0d	1	0.87mi
405 Curtner Ave #1598 Palo Alto, CA	3.0	3.0	1300	$5,310	$4.08	44d	1	1.00mi
795 Greer Rd Palo Alto, CA	4.0	2.0	1586	$8,250	$5.20	12d	1	1.01mi
1087 Embarcadero Rd Palo Alto, CA	4.0	2.0	1714	$7,800	$4.55	2d	1	1.03mi
3743 Klamath Ln Palo Alto, CA	3.0	3.0	1300	$12,800	$9.85	2d	1	1.08mi
714 Wildwood Ln Palo Alto, CA	3.0	2.0	1390	$6,750	$4.86	44d	1	1.10mi
714 Wildwood Ln Palo Alto, CA	3.0	2.0	1390	$6,750	$4.86	17d	1	1.10mi
292 Walter Hays Dr Palo Alto, CA	4.0	2.5	2200	$9,000	$4.09	24d	1	1.24mi
734 Chimalus Dr Palo Alto, CA	4.0	3.0	2513	$11,000	$4.38	13d	1	1.31mi
795 E Charleston Rd Palo Alto, CA	3.0	2.0	1421	$6,800	$4.79	8d	1	1.32mi
821 Altaire Walk #1549 Palo Alto, CA	3.0	2.5	1333	$5,820	$4.37	2d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,880,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,880,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,880,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,880,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,880,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,880,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,880,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,880,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on marketlisting id $2,880,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,888,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,888,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-04-15
    historical
13. 2026-04-15
    listed $2,888,000 Active 989-char remark
14. 2026-04-15
    listed $2,888,000 Active 989-char remark
15. 2025-03-07
    soldstatus $1,400,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $12,959 · $1,080/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $21,888 · $1,824/mo
• Expected delta: +$8,929/yr (+$744/mo · 68.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $87,170
• − Mortgage interest: −$161,325
• − Property taxes: −$12,959
• − Insurance: −$14,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,974
• − Management: −$6,974
• − Depreciation: −$83,782
• Taxable loss: −$199,243
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$47,818
• After-tax cash flow: $-91,913/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palo Alto Unified
• NCES district ID: 0629610
• Math proficiency: 79% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $124,038
• Composite: 74.33/100
• National rank: #161
• State rank: #19 of 517 in CA

Livability — Palo Alto

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #821

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palo Alto, CA
• County: Santa Clara County · 1,806,974 people
• City population: 44,691
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 27,183
• Household income: $210,000
• Rent vs Own: 47.4% rent · 52.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1232.0

Population outlook (Santa Clara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,179,074 people
• By 2030: 2,301,297 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 2,528,195 · +16.0%
• By 2050: 2,712,135 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 2,998,701 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 2,931,429 · +34.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Asian 37% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 36% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Chinese 19% Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Clara

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.0) · D 68.1% · R 28.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: 40.9pp · 2024: 40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.0 2020: D+47.4 2016: D+52.5 2012: D+42.1 2008: D+40.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.25%
• Current HPI: 366.9917
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.37%
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+105.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $2,880,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-06-03 Listed $2,880,000 MLSListings
• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-15 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-15 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $1,400,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,959 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.