1351 Widgeon Rd · New Home, TX 79381

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,740 sqft · Manufactured · 163 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 1.05 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offering 1,740 square feet of comfortable living space in a peaceful country setting. Situated on just over 1 acre and located in the highly sought-after New Home Independent School District, this property offers the perfect balance of space, privacy, and convenience just outside city traffic. Inside, you'll find a functional open layout, generous room sizes, and plenty of natural light. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space and flows seamlessly into the main living area—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite features a private bathroom and roomy walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms are well-sized and versatile for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, enjoy wide open space with room to add a shop, create outdoor living areas, park vehicles, or simply take in the peaceful West Texas views. This is a great opportunity to own acreage in New Home ISD while remaining within convenient driving distance to Lubbock and surrounding communities.

Key facts

• West texas views
• Wide open space
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• ROOMY WALK-IN CLOSET
• WIDE OPEN SPACE
• WEST TEXAS VIEWS
• ACREAGE IN NEW HOME ISD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $229k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $512 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $229k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#343 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• New Home ISD (rural): math 71% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #16 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Lynn County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $201,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.59%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $62,302
• Equity at exit: $105,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $173,630
• Equity at exit: $163,740

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79381

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,652 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,435/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,003

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $671	-5% $592	+0% $512	+5% $433	+10% $354
Rent	-10% $303	-5% $408	+0% $512	+5% $617	+10% $722
Rate	-1.0pp $628	-0.5pp $571	base $512	+0.5pp $453	+1.0pp $393

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $229,000 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 160 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $240,000 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $240,000 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $240,000 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 145 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $240,000 Active 144 DOM
17. 2026-01-03
    listed $240,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1058 chars)

    Welcome home to this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offering 1,740 square feet of comfortable living space in a peaceful country setting. Situated on just over 1 acre and located in the highly sought-after New Home Independent School District, this property offers the perfect balance of space, privacy, and convenience just outside city traffic. Inside, you'll find a functional open layout, generous room sizes, and plenty of natural light. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space and flows seamlessly into the main living area—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite features a private bathroom and roomy walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms are well-sized and versatile for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, enjoy wide open space with room to add a shop, create outdoor living areas, park vehicles, or simply take in the peaceful West Texas views. This is a great opportunity to own acreage in New Home ISD while remaining within convenient driving distance to Lubbock and surrounding communities.

18. 2026-01-03
    listed $240,000 Active 1058-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1058 chars)

    Welcome home to this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offering 1,740 square feet of comfortable living space in a peaceful country setting. Situated on just over 1 acre and located in the highly sought-after New Home Independent School District, this property offers the perfect balance of space, privacy, and convenience just outside city traffic. Inside, you'll find a functional open layout, generous room sizes, and plenty of natural light. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space and flows seamlessly into the main living area—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite features a private bathroom and roomy walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms are well-sized and versatile for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, enjoy wide open space with room to add a shop, create outdoor living areas, park vehicles, or simply take in the peaceful West Texas views. This is a great opportunity to own acreage in New Home ISD while remaining within convenient driving distance to Lubbock and surrounding communities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,822
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,435
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,546
• − Management: −$2,546
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable income: $2,661
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$639
• After-tax cash flow: $5,510/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in a peaceful country setting offers a good balance of space, privacy, and convenience. The kitchen and bathrooms are modern and functional, and the home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Add a small patio or deck — Can increase the living space and add value for both resale and rental purposes.
• Both Install smart home features — Can increase the home's appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters, and potentially increase its value in the market.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Add a small patio or deck — Can increase the living space and add value for both resale and rental purposes. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Can increase the home's appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters, and potentially increase its value in the market. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Home ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832490
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,372
• Composite: 60.5/100
• National rank: #845
• State rank: #16 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Home

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #343
• US rank: #7488

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 47
• Population (ZIP): 1,457

Population outlook (Lynn County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,360 people
• By 2030: 5,162 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 4,811 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 4,422 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 3,362 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 2,177 · -59.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 22% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynn

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.3) · D 14.4% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.3pp toward R · 2008: -40.0pp · 2024: -70.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.3 2020: R+62.1 2016: R+57.2 2012: R+49.3 2008: R+40.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Current HPI: 125.9221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-03 Listed $240,000 LARMLS
• 2026-01-03 Listed $240,000 LARMLS