4 Bush Ave · Walton, NY 13856

$135,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,116 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1958 5,662 sqft lot Est $124k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +3.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

A beautiful ranch home, all on one floor, with fresh paint, new front steps, and very close to conveniences, close to the school, and close to the Delaware Valley Hospital. This home has an open floor plan with natural gas heat, oak flooring, and a very large outdoor deck for enjoying outdoor activities. Come see this home!

Key facts

• Hot water tank
• One floor
• Well maintained

Tags

• ONE FLOOR
• WELL MAINTAINED
• HEATING SYSTEM
• HOT WATER TANK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Frame construction; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation; Existing (previously built)
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Rectangular residential lot; Road frontage on a city street; Lot dimensions approximately 72 x 89

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms; Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Luxury vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 7.8% in Walton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#443 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Walton Central School District (town): math 36% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #510 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Delaware County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $132,975 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.14%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,876
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Maple St	0.03mi	2/1.0	1,152 (+3%)	4mo	$151,000	$131	90
10 Camp Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,232 (+10%)	1mo	$118,700	$96	67
23 Shepard St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,160 (+4%)	12mo	$35,000	$30	45
82 Griswold St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,188 (+6%)	12mo	$132,355	$111	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.79% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $103,924
• Equity at exit: $83,116

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.73×
• Total profit: $254,296
• Equity at exit: $149,238

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13856

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,641 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$278 /mo · $3,336/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $1,044

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,319

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,120	-5% $1,082	+0% $1,044	+5% $1,006	+10% $967
Rent	-10% $835	-5% $940	+0% $1,044	+5% $1,148	+10% $1,252
Rate	-1.0pp $1,112	-0.5pp $1,078	base $1,044	+0.5pp $1,009	+1.0pp $973

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-21
   listed $135,000 Active
4. 2023-02-09
   soldstatus $120,000
5. 2023-02-06
   soldstatus $120,000 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   A beautiful ranch home, all on one floor, with fresh paint, new front steps, and very close to conveniences, close to the school, and close to the Delaware Valley Hospital. This home has an open floor plan with natural gas heat, oak flooring, and a very large outdoor deck for enjoying outdoor activities. Come see this home!

6. 2023-02-06
   soldstatus $120,000 Closed 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   A beautiful ranch home, all on one floor, with fresh paint, new front steps, and very close to conveniences, close to the school, and close to the Delaware Valley Hospital. This home has an open floor plan with natural gas heat, oak flooring, and a very large outdoor deck for enjoying outdoor activities. Come see this home!

7. 2022-12-17
   historical Active Under Contract 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   A beautiful ranch home, all on one floor, with fresh paint, new front steps, and very close to conveniences, close to the school, and close to the Delaware Valley Hospital. This home has an open floor plan with natural gas heat, oak flooring, and a very large outdoor deck for enjoying outdoor activities. Come see this home!

8. 2022-11-26
   listed $129,900 Active 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   A beautiful ranch home, all on one floor, with fresh paint, new front steps, and very close to conveniences, close to the school, and close to the Delaware Valley Hospital. This home has an open floor plan with natural gas heat, oak flooring, and a very large outdoor deck for enjoying outdoor activities. Come see this home!

9. 2022-11-26
   listed $129,900 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   A beautiful ranch home, all on one floor, with fresh paint, new front steps, and very close to conveniences, close to the school, and close to the Delaware Valley Hospital. This home has an open floor plan with natural gas heat, oak flooring, and a very large outdoor deck for enjoying outdoor activities. Come see this home!

10. 2017-08-10
    soldstatus $58,000
11. 2017-03-28
    listed $59,900
12. 1999-04-02
    soldstatus $70,000
13. 1996-09-03
    soldstatus $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,336 · $278/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,336 · $278/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$3,336
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,535
• − Management: −$2,535
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $11,117
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,668
• After-tax cash flow: $9,859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629820
• Math proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,231
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #5088
• State rank: #510 of 590 in NY

Livability — Walton

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #443
• US rank: #7789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Walton, NY
• Population (ZIP): 5,915

Population outlook (Delaware County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,668 people
• By 2030: 40,337 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 35,514 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 31,265 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 24,455 · -42.7%
• By 2100: 19,529 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Delaware

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 40.1% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -5.2pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+9.6 2008: R+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.79%
• Current HPI: 331.9799
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+159.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-30 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $135,000 UNYREIS
• 2023-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2023-02-06 Sold (MLS) $120,000 ODBOR
• 2023-02-06 Sold (MLS) $120,000 UNYREIS
• 2022-12-17 Contingent — ODBOR
• 2022-11-26 Listed $129,900 ODBOR
• 2022-11-26 Listed $129,900 UNYREIS
• 2017-08-10 Sold (MLS) $58,000 UNYREIS
• 2017-03-28 Listed $59,900 UNYREIS
• 1999-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1996-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,336 · -12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.