The Harrington Plan · Conroe, TX 77316

$329,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,565 sqft · SingleFamily · 58 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Cash flow +4.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Based on our top-selling plan, the Harrington delights with its massive second-floor owner's suite privately tucked away on the same level as its three additional bedrooms. The first floor impresses with an open concept family room, breakfast nook and large center island, plus a dining room that can be a living room, study or a 5th bedroom/bathroom. Explore your choices for the Harrington kitchen, using our Interactive Kitchen Designer Tool as well.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 57 days

🏗️ New construction. The $329,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $453,278.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $330k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (18.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (28.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (28.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,940 (28.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.07%
• DSCR: 0.46
• GRM: 16.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $453,278
• List price: $329,990
• Delta: -27.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -41.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-160,705
• Equity at exit: $67,585

10-year hold

• IRR: -87.4%
• Equity multiple: -1.11×
• Total profit: $-267,816
• Equity at exit: $39,191

Cash invested: $126,918 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,349 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,377
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$567 /mo · $6,799/yr
• Insurance: −$189
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-1,276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,965

Max offer price $268,570

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,319
• Closing costs: $13,598
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $329,990 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $329,990 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $329,990 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $329,990 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,990 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $329,990 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,990 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,990 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $329,990 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $329,990 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,990 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,990 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,990 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,990 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-04-21
    listed $329,990 Active 453-char remark

    Show marketing remark (453 chars)

    Based on our top-selling plan, the Harrington delights with its massive second-floor owner's suite privately tucked away on the same level as its three additional bedrooms. The first floor impresses with an open concept family room, breakfast nook and large center island, plus a dining room that can be a living room, study or a 5th bedroom/bathroom. Explore your choices for the Harrington kitchen, using our Interactive Kitchen Designer Tool as well.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,391
• − Property taxes: −$6,799
• − Insurance: −$2,266
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,255
• − Management: −$2,255
• − Depreciation: −$13,186
• Taxable loss: −$23,960
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,751
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minimal repairs and maintenance. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior siding and replacing the countertops.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace countertops — Modernizes the kitchen
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Modernizes the kitchen ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $329,990 Zillow