610 E Orchard St #49 · Odessa, MO 64076

$29,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2018 4,356 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable homeownership opportunity in a newer 2018 manufactured home. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a functional floor plan, spacious living area, open kitchen, and all appliances currently in the home will remain with the property. The primary suite includes a private bath, while the additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or a home office. A large accessibility ramp provides convenient entry, and the home sits on a spacious rented lot with open green space surrounding it. Built in 2018, the home offers many of the features buyers look for in a newer manufactured home at an affordable price point. This property may also be of interest to investors or potential bu

Key facts

• Private bath
• Open green space
• Accessibility ramp

Tags

• PRIVATE BATH
• ACCESSIBILITY RAMP
• OPEN GREEN SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer: unknown
• Home design: Single family residence; Manufactured home; Ranch style; Located inside city limits; Entry within a mobile home park (Maple Woods Mobile Home Park)
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Composition roof; Built 6–10 years ago
• Exterior features: Deck; Paved road access; Public road maintenance; Not in a flood plain; Accessible approach with ramp

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen open to family room
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Electric cooling (has air conditioning)
• Interior features: Ranch floor plan; Family room on main level; Main floor bedroom; Kitchen and family room combined
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located off the kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($800 rent vs $30k).
• Cap rate 23.7% vs local median 3.8% in Odessa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#144 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Odessa R-VII (town): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #123 of 324 in MO (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mcquerry Elementary (461 students, 39% FRL); Odessa High (math 8% / reading 62%, grade F, #318 of 521 statewide, top 61%, 664 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 112 units permitted in Lafayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $204 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $885 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lafayette County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $29,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.20%
• DSCR: 3.77
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $166,320
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
320 E Dryden St	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,030 (+12%)	10mo	$184,900	$180	48
307 E Orchard St	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,036 (+12%)	0mo	$230,000	$222	46
609 E Orchard St	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,060 (+15%)	21mo	$110,000	$104	43
411 E Mason St	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	990 (+7%)	19mo	$155,000	$157	43
421 E Main St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,044 (+13%)	3mo	$240,000	$230	38
518 S Second St	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	876 (-5%)	14mo	$65,000	$74	36
111 S Johnson Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,032 (+12%)	23mo	$190,000	$184	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.72×
• Total profit: $22,500
• Equity at exit: $4,399

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.63×
• Total profit: $54,753
• Equity at exit: $2,551

Cash invested: $8,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64076

• Home prices YoY: -18.0%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$155
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$37 /mo · $442/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$168
• Net cashflow: $428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $258

Max offer price $29,500

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $449	-5% $438	+0% $428	+5% $418	+10% $408
Rent	-10% $365	-5% $397	+0% $428	+5% $460	+10% $491
Rate	-1.0pp $443	-0.5pp $436	base $428	+0.5pp $420	+1.0pp $413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,375
• Closing costs: $885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
214 W Orchard St Unit 2 Odessa, MO	2.0	1.0	916	$800	$0.87	21d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $29,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,652
• − Property taxes: −$442
• − Insurance: −$148
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$768
• − Management: −$768
• − Depreciation: −$858
• Taxable income: $4,963
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,191
• After-tax cash flow: $3,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Odessa R-VII
• NCES district ID: 2923100
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,736
• Composite: 35.44/100
• National rank: #4932
• State rank: #123 of 324 in MO

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #144
• US rank: #8250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, MO
• Population (ZIP): 9,236

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,118 people
• By 2030: 29,993 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 27,436 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 24,585 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 18,426 · -40.8%
• By 2100: 12,897 · -58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Danish 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.9) · D 24.9% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.6pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -48.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.9 2020: R+45.7 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+26.3 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.23%
• Current HPI: 255.8581
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $29,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-18 Coming Soon $29,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid