870 Cavalcade Dr · Ferris, TX 75125

$390,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,968 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 7,405 sqft lot Est $424k · 8% under $55/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the desirable Woodstone community in Ferris! This beautifully maintained home offers the perfect combination of space, comfort, and functionality! Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms, 3 baths , and a flex room that could be used as office space perfect for working from home. Upstairs, you’ll find a large game room that provides endless possibilities for entertainment, a media area, or additional living space. The open-concept main living area is filled with natural light and flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining spaces, making it ideal for both everyday living and hosting guests. The primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with a private ensuite bath and generous closet sp

Key facts

• Backyard
• Flex room
• Private ensuite bath

Tags

• FLEX ROOM
• LARGE GAME ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LIVING AREA
• PRIVATE ENSUITE BATH
• GENEROUS CLOSET SPACE
• BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Woodstone Ph 1; County: Ellis
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage faces front; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity available; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Preowned home (built in 2022)
• Construction: Shingle roof; Brick, siding, and stone veneer exterior; Slab foundation; Built in 2022
• Exterior features: Landscaped lot; Covered patio/porch; Gutters; Exterior lighting; Wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Granite countertops; Kitchen island; Built-in cabinets; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on main level with ensuite bath, separate vanities, and walk-in closet(s); Additional bedrooms on second level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Primary bath with dual sinks and separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Granite counters; Pantry; Double vanity; Walk-in closet(s); Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Bay window(s)
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Utility room; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $390k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($56k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $390k).
• Recommended offer: $384k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.6% vs local median 4.4% in Ferris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#401 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ferris ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #634 of 826 in TX (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lucy Mae Mcdonald El (math 40% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 620 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 67% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($384k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $384,150 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.09%
• DSCR: 3.27
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $424,424
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
851 Boomer Ln	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,659 (-10%)	12mo	$379,990	$143	71
301 Ford Way	0.21mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,568 (-14%)	12mo	$499,500	$195	52
105 Wallace Dr	0.34mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,835 (-4%)	22mo	$365,000	$129	51
213 E 5th St	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,796 (-6%)	11mo	$349,000	$125	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $233,219
• Equity at exit: $58,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.36×
• Total profit: $585,647
• Equity at exit: $33,720

Cash invested: $109,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75125

• Home prices YoY: -6.4%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$712 /mo · $8,544/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,027
• Net cashflow: $4,649

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,765

Max offer price $390,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,870	-5% $4,759	+0% $4,649	+5% $4,539	+10% $4,428
Rent	-10% $3,887	-5% $4,268	+0% $4,649	+5% $5,030	+10% $5,411
Rate	-1.0pp $4,845	-0.5pp $4,748	base $4,649	+0.5pp $4,548	+1.0pp $4,445

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,500
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
206 S Meadow Dr Ferris, TX	3.0	2.0	2206	$8,950	$4.06	22d	1	0.28mi
206 S Meadow Dr Unit 1520042P Ferris, TX	3.0	2.0	2195	$12,712	$5.79	22d	1	0.28mi
111 S Wood St Unit B Ferris, TX	3.0	2.0	2200	$1,700	$0.77	44d	1	0.94mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $390,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $390,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $390,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $390,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,999 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,999 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,999 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,999 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $399,999 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,999 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,999 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,999 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,999 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-24
    listed $399,999 Active
15. 2025-09-29
    soldstatus
16. 2025-05-12
    price $399,999
17. 2025-04-16
    listed $410,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,544 · $712/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,544 · $712/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $115,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$8,544
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,264
• − Management: −$9,264
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable income: $52,929
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$12,703
• After-tax cash flow: $43,085/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained home in the Woodstone community offers a good balance of space and comfort. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both paint exterior — improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both paint interior trim — enhances interior and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both paint exterior — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both paint interior trim — enhances interior and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferris ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819170
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $53,468
• Composite: 25.3/100
• National rank: #7486
• State rank: #634 of 826 in TX

Livability — Ferris

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #401
• US rank: #8294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,154

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 57% White 32% Two or more races 25% Black 10% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 42%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.54%
• Current HPI: 243.4525
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $399,999 NTREIS
• 2025-09-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $399,999 NTREIS
• 2025-04-16 Listed $410,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+167.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,544 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.