527 Lake St · Manchester, CT 06042

$324,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · Other · 45 Days on market

Built 1920 0.87 ac lot $206/sqft · 29% below area Est $460k · 29% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3Br,1ba cape in country setting..87 Ac-house in manchester,(.44 Acres) in vernon.Much charm&warmth .Hdwd flrs,6 panel drs,beamed ceilings in brs.1St flr laund.Updated bath and kitchen.Great views of risley res.Newer siding,roof&some wdws

Key facts

• 0.87 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1920

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Energy-saving features: storm doors, storm windows, thermopane windows

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2-car); Off-street parking; Driveway; Total parking for 6 vehicles
• Utilities: Private well; Septic system; Above-ground fuel tank
• Home design: Single-family home; Frame construction; White exterior; Asphalt shingle roof
• Construction: Stone foundation; Frame construction; Aluminum and wood siding
• Exterior features: Porch; Patio; Garden area; Corner lot; Private driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven/Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heat (oil); Oil hot water and domestic hot water
• Interior features: Automatic garage door opener; Cable available
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.7% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#59 in CT, #3,580 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Manchester School District (suburban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #130 of 153 in CT (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Buckley School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #318 of 553 statewide, top 60%, 288 students, 42% FRL); Illing Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #151 of 175 statewide, top 87%, 846 students, 58% FRL); Manchester High School (math 26% / reading 47%, grade F, #118 of 194 statewide, top 61%, 1,673 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 58 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,867 units permitted in Capitol Planning Region in 2024 (1,399 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $325k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $263,971 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.13%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $460,085
• List price: $324,900
• Delta: -29.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.8% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-37,631
• Equity at exit: $48,444

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $581
• Equity at exit: $28,091

Cash invested: $90,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06042

• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,640 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,012/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,435

Max offer price $324,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $346	-5% $254	+0% $162	+5% $70	+10% $-22
Rent	-10% $-47	-5% $58	+0% $162	+5% $266	+10% $370
Rate	-1.0pp $325	-0.5pp $244	base $162	+0.5pp $78	+1.0pp $-8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,225
• Closing costs: $9,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
81 Cliffside Dr Unit A Manchester, CT	3.0	3.5	1669	$2,700	$1.62	3d	1	0.72mi
49 Cliffside Dr Unit B Manchester, CT	3.0	2.5	1669	$2,650	$1.59	45d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $324,900 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $324,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $324,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $324,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $324,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $324,900 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $324,900 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $324,900 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $324,900 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $324,900 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $324,900 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $324,900 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $324,900 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $324,900 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $324,900 Active 560-char remark
16. 2026-05-03
    historical $324,900 560-char remark
17. 2008-11-13
    soldstatus $179,900 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    3Br,1ba cape in country setting..87 Ac-house in manchester,(.44 Acres) in vernon.Much charm&warmth .Hdwd flrs,6 panel drs,beamed ceilings in brs.1St flr laund.Updated bath and kitchen.Great views of risley res.Newer siding,roof&some wdws

18. 2008-03-28
    listed $199,900 245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (245 chars)

    3Br,1ba cape in country setting..87 Ac-house in manchester,(.44 Acres) in vernon.Much charm&warmth .Hdwd flrs,6 panel drs,beamed ceilings in brs.1St flr laund.Updated bath and kitchen.Great views of risley res.Newer siding,roof&some wdws

19. 2008-03-17
    historical
20. 2007-10-16
    listed $214,900
21. 2007-10-01
    historical
22. 2007-09-05
    listed $234,900
23. 2007-09-01
    historical
24. 2007-05-30
    listed $245,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,012 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,982 · $332/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,970/yr (+$248/mo · 293.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,199
• − Property taxes: −$1,012
• − Insurance: −$1,624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,534
• − Management: −$2,534
• − Depreciation: −$9,452
• Taxable loss: −$3,679
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$883
• After-tax cash flow: $2,825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester School District
• NCES district ID: 0902310
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $63,391
• Composite: 24.54/100
• National rank: #7643
• State rank: #130 of 153 in CT

Livability — Manchester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #3580

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manchester, CT
• County: Hartford County · 754,208 people
• City population: 59,635
• Metro: Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT
• Population (ZIP): 23,822
• Household income: $91,892
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 730.0

Population outlook (Capitol County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 1,063,519

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Asian 14% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 6% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Capitol

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.9) · D 60.1% · R 38.2% · Other 1.7%
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.15%
• Current HPI: 196.8782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.80%
• Metro: Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+32.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $324,900 Smart MLS
• 2026-05-03 Coming Soon $324,900 Smart MLS
• 2008-11-13 Sold (MLS) $179,900 Smart MLS
• 2008-03-28 Listed $199,900 Smart MLS
• 2008-03-17 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2007-10-16 Listed $214,900 Smart MLS
• 2007-10-01 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2007-09-05 Listed $234,900 Smart MLS
• 2007-09-01 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2007-05-30 Listed $245,000 Smart MLS

Property tax history

-3.5%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,012 · -21.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.