129 Valleywood Gln · Holly Lake Ranch, TX 75765

$190,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,117 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1996 Est $184k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover the charm of tranquil living at 129 Valleywood Glen. This delightful cottage-style home offers a cozy and inviting retreat, perfectly situated in the heart of the desirable Holly Lake Ranch community. Property Overview This charming cottage design emphasizes comfort and character. The home features two bedrooms and one well-appointed bathroom. Designed with versatility in mind, the layout offers excellent potential for an easy conversion to a 2-bathroom home, allowing for increased functionality and future equity growth. The home also boasts a convenient carport and a flexible dining space that is perfectly suited for entertaining guests. Outdoor Living & amp; Entertaining The

Key facts

• Vegetable gardens
• Hand painted details
• Covered back patio

Tags

• COTTAGE STYLE HOME
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• HAND PAINTED DETAILS
• NATURE TRAILS
• MATURE FLOWER GARDENS
• VEGETABLE GARDENS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($786/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.8% in Holly Lake Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hawkins ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #339 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,964 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.48%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,305
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
177 Woodfern Gln	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,106 (-1%)	8mo	$182,000	$165	83
121 Candlelight Cv	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,106 (-1%)	2mo	$176,900	$160	74
126 Valleywood Gln	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,036 (-7%)	22mo	$168,999	$163	58
1796 Valleywood Trl	0.12mi	2/3.0	1,238 (+11%)	23mo	$219,500	$177	58
192 Drifting Cloud	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,250 (+12%)	14mo	$225,000	$180	48
1161 Valleywood Trl	0.70mi	2/2.0	986 (-12%)	9mo	$163,000	$165	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $28,019
• Equity at exit: $86,466

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $92,713
• Equity at exit: $134,064

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75765

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,670 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,136/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,587

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $190,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $190,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $190,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 695-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $190,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,136 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,477 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,341/yr (+$112/mo · 62.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 51% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,136
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,603
• − Management: −$1,603
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$2,426
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$582
• After-tax cash flow: $1,368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawkins ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822770
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,119
• Composite: 35.91/100
• National rank: #4809
• State rank: #339 of 826 in TX

Livability — Holly Lake Ranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #597
• US rank: #11377

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holly Lake Ranch, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,195

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Current HPI: 236.7688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $190,000 FSBO.com
• 2008-11-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-12-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,136 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.