3126 Carnaby Ln Unit C · Bridgeton, MO 63044

$97,400

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 951 sqft · Condo public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1971 $102/sqft · at area comps Est $96k · at est. $375/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 3126 Carnaby Ln Unit C, a beautifully updated upper 2nd floor corner unit in the convenient Bridgeton/Maryland Heights area—just minutes from shopping, dining, entertainment, and major highways. This bright second-floor condo features 2 spacious bedrooms and 1 full bathroom and offers a perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and convenience. The corner location and large windows fill the living space with natural light, creating an open and inviting atmosphere. The galley kitchen offers generous cabinet storage, sleek countertops, and easy flow into the dining area—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Step outside onto your private covered deck, an ideal spot to enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evening. This unit was fully remodeled in 2021, featuring modern kitchen cabinetry, luxury vinyl flooring, beautifully updated bathroom and recess lightings. For added convenience, the refrigerator and stackable washer/dryer stay with the unit. A great opportunity for 52+ years old homeowners looking for an updated, low-maintenance condo in a highly convenient location.

Key facts

• $375 HOA
• Built 1971
• Listed 100 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $97k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $482 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 5.3% in Bridgeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#691 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Pattonville R-III (suburban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #147 of 324 in MO (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $673 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,634 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.19%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,538
• List price: $97,400
• Delta: 1.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $15,127
• Equity at exit: $14,523

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $53,615
• Equity at exit: $8,421

Cash invested: $27,272 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63044

• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,879 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$511
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $921/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$375
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,270

Max offer price $97,400

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $537	-5% $509	+0% $482	+5% $454	+10% $427
Rent	-10% $333	-5% $407	+0% $482	+5% $556	+10% $630
Rate	-1.0pp $531	-0.5pp $506	base $482	+0.5pp $456	+1.0pp $431

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,350
• Closing costs: $2,922
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11091 Saxonhall Dr Bridgeton, MO	3.0	1.0	1034	$1,706	$1.65	19d	1	0.27mi
3253 Greenbridge Dr Bridgeton, MO	3.0	1.5	1066	$2,561	$2.40	12d	1	0.32mi
11120 Graben Dr St Ann, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	850	$1,250	$1.47	3d	14	0.76mi
11042 Florence Ave Saint Ann, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,300	$1.50	13d	1	0.87mi
7 Edgeworth Ave Maryland Heights, MO	3.0	1.5	988	$1,995	$2.02	25d	1	1.01mi
11918 Brookmont Dr Maryland Heights, MO	3.0	1.0	980	$1,800	$1.84	45d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $375 · $4,500/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $97,400 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,400 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,400 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,400 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,400 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $97,400 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $97,400 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,400 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $97,400 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $97,400 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $97,400 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $97,400 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $102,400 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $102,400 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $102,400 1117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1117 chars)

    Welcome to 3126 Carnaby Ln Unit C, a beautifully updated upper 2nd floor corner unit in the convenient Bridgeton/Maryland Heights area—just minutes from shopping, dining, entertainment, and major highways. This bright second-floor condo features 2 spacious bedrooms and 1 full bathroom and offers a perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and convenience. The corner location and large windows fill the living space with natural light, creating an open and inviting atmosphere. The galley kitchen offers generous cabinet storage, sleek countertops, and easy flow into the dining area—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Step outside onto your private covered deck, an ideal spot to enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evening. This unit was fully remodeled in 2021, featuring modern kitchen cabinetry, luxury vinyl flooring, beautifully updated bathroom and recess lightings. For added convenience, the refrigerator and stackable washer/dryer stay with the unit. A great opportunity for 52+ years old homeowners looking for an updated, low-maintenance condo in a highly convenient location.

16. 2026-04-11
    price $104,900 1117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1117 chars)

    Welcome to 3126 Carnaby Ln Unit C, a beautifully updated upper 2nd floor corner unit in the convenient Bridgeton/Maryland Heights area—just minutes from shopping, dining, entertainment, and major highways. This bright second-floor condo features 2 spacious bedrooms and 1 full bathroom and offers a perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and convenience. The corner location and large windows fill the living space with natural light, creating an open and inviting atmosphere. The galley kitchen offers generous cabinet storage, sleek countertops, and easy flow into the dining area—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Step outside onto your private covered deck, an ideal spot to enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evening. This unit was fully remodeled in 2021, featuring modern kitchen cabinetry, luxury vinyl flooring, beautifully updated bathroom and recess lightings. For added convenience, the refrigerator and stackable washer/dryer stay with the unit. A great opportunity for 52+ years old homeowners looking for an updated, low-maintenance condo in a highly convenient location.

17. 2026-03-13
    listed $109,900 Active 1117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1117 chars)

    Welcome to 3126 Carnaby Ln Unit C, a beautifully updated upper 2nd floor corner unit in the convenient Bridgeton/Maryland Heights area—just minutes from shopping, dining, entertainment, and major highways. This bright second-floor condo features 2 spacious bedrooms and 1 full bathroom and offers a perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and convenience. The corner location and large windows fill the living space with natural light, creating an open and inviting atmosphere. The galley kitchen offers generous cabinet storage, sleek countertops, and easy flow into the dining area—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Step outside onto your private covered deck, an ideal spot to enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evening. This unit was fully remodeled in 2021, featuring modern kitchen cabinetry, luxury vinyl flooring, beautifully updated bathroom and recess lightings. For added convenience, the refrigerator and stackable washer/dryer stay with the unit. A great opportunity for 52+ years old homeowners looking for an updated, low-maintenance condo in a highly convenient location.

18. 2026-03-10
    price $109,900 1117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1117 chars)

    Welcome to 3126 Carnaby Ln Unit C, a beautifully updated upper 2nd floor corner unit in the convenient Bridgeton/Maryland Heights area—just minutes from shopping, dining, entertainment, and major highways. This bright second-floor condo features 2 spacious bedrooms and 1 full bathroom and offers a perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and convenience. The corner location and large windows fill the living space with natural light, creating an open and inviting atmosphere. The galley kitchen offers generous cabinet storage, sleek countertops, and easy flow into the dining area—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Step outside onto your private covered deck, an ideal spot to enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evening. This unit was fully remodeled in 2021, featuring modern kitchen cabinetry, luxury vinyl flooring, beautifully updated bathroom and recess lightings. For added convenience, the refrigerator and stackable washer/dryer stay with the unit. A great opportunity for 52+ years old homeowners looking for an updated, low-maintenance condo in a highly convenient location.

19. 2026-03-10
    historical $109,000 1117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1117 chars)

    Welcome to 3126 Carnaby Ln Unit C, a beautifully updated upper 2nd floor corner unit in the convenient Bridgeton/Maryland Heights area—just minutes from shopping, dining, entertainment, and major highways. This bright second-floor condo features 2 spacious bedrooms and 1 full bathroom and offers a perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and convenience. The corner location and large windows fill the living space with natural light, creating an open and inviting atmosphere. The galley kitchen offers generous cabinet storage, sleek countertops, and easy flow into the dining area—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Step outside onto your private covered deck, an ideal spot to enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evening. This unit was fully remodeled in 2021, featuring modern kitchen cabinetry, luxury vinyl flooring, beautifully updated bathroom and recess lightings. For added convenience, the refrigerator and stackable washer/dryer stay with the unit. A great opportunity for 52+ years old homeowners looking for an updated, low-maintenance condo in a highly convenient location.

20. 2021-07-23
    soldstatus $88,200
21. 2021-07-16
    soldstatus Closed 47-char remark

    Show marketing remark (47 chars)

    For comp purposes only-2nd floor unit, rehabbed

22. 2021-04-15
    soldstatus $37,000
23. 2015-03-31
    soldstatus $25,250
24. 2015-03-26
    soldstatus Closed
25. 2015-03-11
    historical
26. 2015-02-24
    price $29,900
27. 2015-01-29
    price $32,500
28. 2015-01-29
    price $325,000
29. 2015-01-27
    listed $35,000 Active
30. 2001-05-09
    soldstatus $46,750
31. 1998-07-24
    soldstatus $41,500
32. 1991-12-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $921 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $945 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$24/yr (+$2/mo · 2.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,554
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,456
• − Property taxes: −$921
• − Insurance: −$487
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,804
• − Management: −$1,804
• − HOA: −$4,500
• − Depreciation: −$2,833
• Taxable income: $4,748
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,139
• After-tax cash flow: $4,641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pattonville R-III
• NCES district ID: 2923700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,786
• Composite: 33.69/100
• National rank: #5383
• State rank: #147 of 324 in MO

Livability — Bridgeton

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #691
• US rank: #22610

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bridgeton, MO
• City population: 10,510
• Population (ZIP): 10,510

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Swedish 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -254.60%
• Current HPI: 207.5311
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+146.7% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $102,400 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $104,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Listed $109,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $109,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Coming Soon $109,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $88,200 Public Records
• 2021-07-16 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 2015-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $25,250 Public Records
• 2015-03-26 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-11 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-24 Price Changed $29,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-29 Price Changed $32,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-29 Price Changed $325,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-27 Listed $35,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $46,750 Public Records
• 1998-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $41,500 Public Records
• 1991-12-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $921 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.