2851 S La Cadena Dr #110 · Colton, CA 92324

$220,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 177 Days on market

Built 2006 $131/sqft · 9% above area Est $202k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• ARV discount +3.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful and well-maintained Mobile Home featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with 1,620 sq. ft. of spacious living. This property offers an open floor plan with a comfortable living area, central A/C and heating, and a cozy fireplace. The kitchen includes ample cabinet space and essential appliances. Situated on a generous lot with a carport and outdoor space for additional parking or entertaining. Located in a welcoming community in Colton, close to shopping, schools, and easy freeway access. Perfect for buyers seeking affordability, comfort, and convenience.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Easy freeway access
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CENTRAL A/C AND HEATING
• COZY FIREPLACE
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• EASY FREEWAY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 3.5% in Colton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#817 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, schools F.
• Riverside Unified (urban): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #574 of 1,400 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,254/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 2195% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.95%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,033
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: 8.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2851 S La Cadena Dr #162	0.00mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,740 (+4%)	14mo	$160,000	$92	77
2851 S La Cadena Dr #55	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,536 (-9%)	23mo	$181,000	$118	66
2851 S La cadena Dr #56	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,440 (-14%)	22mo	$168,000	$117	45
2851 S La Cadena Dr #31	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	24mo	$137,500	$95	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $44,192
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $136,514
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92324

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,254 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $537/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$683
• Net cashflow: $1,281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,633

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
716 N Orange St Riverside, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$4,999	$4.63	2d	1	0.70mi
19173 Sequoia Grove St Riverside, CA	3.0	2.5	1204	$3,250	$2.70	2d	1	0.97mi
7440 Fig Grove Ln Unit 7440 Riverside, CA	3.0	3.0	1257	$1,100	$0.88	44d	1	1.00mi
7512 Fig Grove Ln Riverside, CA	3.0	2.5	1410	$3,500	$2.48	2d	1	1.01mi
7281 Olive Grove St Riverside, CA	3.0	2.5	1257	$3,075	$2.45	44d	1	1.02mi
22042 Tanager St Grand Terrace, CA	4.0	2.5	1875	$4,000	$2.13	44d	1	1.18mi
1151 Clark St Riverside, CA	4.0	2.0	1248	$2,800	$2.24	44d	1	1.22mi
19439 Seeding Palace Cir Riverside, CA	3.0	2.0	1771	$3,450	$1.95	44d	1	1.46mi
4010 Witt Ave Riverside, CA	4.0	2.0	1900	$3,750	$1.97	11d	1	1.46mi
12553 Pascal Ave Grand Terrace, CA	3.0	2.0	1575	$2,995	$1.90	44d	1	1.48mi
3812 Carrotwood St Riverside, CA	3.0	3.0	1381	$2,900	$2.10	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $220,000 Active 177 DOM
2. 2025-12-05
   listed $220,000 Active 568-char remark

   Show marketing remark (568 chars)

   Beautiful and well-maintained Mobile Home featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with 1,620 sq. ft. of spacious living. This property offers an open floor plan with a comfortable living area, central A/C and heating, and a cozy fireplace. The kitchen includes ample cabinet space and essential appliances. Situated on a generous lot with a carport and outdoor space for additional parking or entertaining. Located in a welcoming community in Colton, close to shopping, schools, and easy freeway access. Perfect for buyers seeking affordability, comfort, and convenience.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $537 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,672 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,135/yr (+$95/mo · 211.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,049
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$537
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,124
• − Management: −$3,124
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable income: $12,441
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,986
• After-tax cash flow: $12,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverside Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633150
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $62,038
• Composite: 40.8/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #574 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Colton

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #817
• US rank: #23005

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 57,365
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 57,365
• Household income: $71,078
• Rent vs Own: 45.3% rent · 54.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2195.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 74% Two or more races 24% White 11% Black 8% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 69%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 49% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -270.99%
• Current HPI: 451.2973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-05 Listed $220,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $537 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.