186 Allen Dr · Lillington, NC 27526

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1998 0.55 ac lot Est $271k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

-Come take a look at this 3 BR 2 Bath home with large living room with fireplace. Kitchen with a center range plus a built in oven; bake twice as much at the same time, great for holidays and family get together's! Plus a dining area, laundry room with a Mud sink and space for hanging coats and shoes or a small freezer, your choice. Master Bath has dual sinks, garden tub and separate shower along with linen cabinet. Large patio porch on front and deck on back. Storage building for your garden tools. Close to Fuquay Varina, Raleigh, Lillington, Ft. Bragg. Country living near shopping, schools and jobs. Home has new carpet, lino and paint thru out!A Must See to Believe!

Key facts

• Front porch
• Large laundry room
• Built-in wall oven

Tags

• NO HOA
• BUILT-IN WALL OVEN
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM
• UTILITY SINK
• FRONT PORCH
• REAR DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Other exterior materials; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Wall oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Floor furnace heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Gas fireplace in the family room; 1 fireplace total
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $416 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (0.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.0% in Lillington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#101 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $229k implies a 186% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,341 (0.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.79%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $270,864
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
250 Allen Dr	0.07mi	3/3.0	1,747 (-2%)	9mo	$264,900	$152	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-10,413
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $25,832
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27526

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,273 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $1,001/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $416

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,747

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $546	-5% $481	+0% $416	+5% $351	+10% $287
Rent	-10% $237	-5% $326	+0% $416	+5% $506	+10% $596
Rate	-1.0pp $532	-0.5pp $474	base $416	+0.5pp $357	+1.0pp $297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
124 Lahinch Dr Fuquay Varina, NC	4.0	2.5	2380	$2,400	$1.01	24d	1	0.66mi
92 Squire St Fuquay Varina, NC	4.0	2.5	1916	$2,015	$1.05	14d	1	0.95mi
135 Moore Creek Dr Fuquay Varina, NC	3.0	3.0	2286	$2,200	$0.96	24d	1	1.03mi
198 Moore Creek Dr Fuquay Varina, NC	4.0	2.0	1764	$2,195	$1.24	14d	1	1.09mi
18 March Creek Dr Fuquay Varina, NC	3.0	2.5	1418	$1,800	$1.27	24d	1	1.17mi
225 Thomas Gage Dr Fuquay Varina, NC	4.0	2.0	2400	$2,450	$1.02	24d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $229,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,001 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,878 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$876/yr (+$73/mo · 87.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$1,001
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,182
• − Management: −$2,182
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable income: $1,280
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$307
• After-tax cash flow: $4,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harnett County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702010
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,400
• Composite: 29.88/100
• National rank: #6397
• State rank: #130 of 178 in NC

Livability — Lillington

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #6653

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wake County · 1,216,256 people
• City population: 21,419
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 61,588
• Household income: $110,017
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 844.0

Population outlook (Harnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,758 people
• By 2030: 166,581 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 192,741 · +25.4%
• By 2050: 218,332 · +42.0%
• By 2075: 275,422 · +79.1%
• By 2100: 313,511 · +103.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harnett

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.1) · D 36.9% · R 62.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -25.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.1 2020: R+22.4 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.48%
• Current HPI: 246.1976
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+186.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $229,000 TMLS
• 2018-05-23 Sold (MLS) $80,000 LPRMLS
• 2018-04-18 Listed $79,900 LPRMLS

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,001 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.