951 Hwy 99 · Waynesboro, TN 38485

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1960 1.20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity, and located only thirty minutes away from David Crockett State Park. This is a beautiful brick house with inviting front farmer's porch and spacious 1.20 acre lot. Buyer to verify all pertinent information.

Key facts

• 1.2 acre lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 106 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 1.2 acres
• Financial info: Tax annual amount reported

Exterior

• Parking: No covered parking reported; No total parking spaces reported
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Brick construction; Renovated
• Construction: Brick exterior; Crawl space foundation; Renovated (year details indicated as renovated)
• Exterior features: Public water available; Public sewer

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Gas oven, gas range, microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-757/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (28.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $104k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#261 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wayne County (rural): math 8% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #130 of 139 in TN (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Waynesboro Elementary (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #709 of 952 statewide, top 77%, 426 students, 0% FRL); Waynesboro Middle School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #230 of 333 statewide, top 69%, 290 students, 0% FRL); Wayne County High School (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #129 of 332 statewide, top 43%, 277 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 55% district-wide (55 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $145k implies a 123% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,131 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.86%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $74,898
• Equity at exit: $130,627

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.51×
• Total profit: $223,611
• Equity at exit: $281,703

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38485

• Home prices YoY: 19.3%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,041 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $779/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $-63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,121

Max offer price $133,859

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $19	-5% $-22	+0% $-63	+5% $-104	+10% $-145
Rent	-10% $-145	-5% $-104	+0% $-63	+5% $-22	+10% $19
Rate	-1.0pp $10	-0.5pp $-26	base $-63	+0.5pp $-101	+1.0pp $-139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $145,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-03-07
    listed $145,000 Active
18. 2026-03-03
    historical $145,000
19. 2024-03-06
    soldstatus $65,000
20. 2022-09-13
    soldstatus $79,900
21. 2022-09-12
    soldstatus $79,900 Closed 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Great investment opportunity, and located only thirty minutes away from David Crockett State Park. This is a beautiful brick house with inviting front farmer's porch and spacious 1.20 acre lot. Buyer to verify all pertinent information.

22. 2022-08-25
    historical Active Under Contract 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Great investment opportunity, and located only thirty minutes away from David Crockett State Park. This is a beautiful brick house with inviting front farmer's porch and spacious 1.20 acre lot. Buyer to verify all pertinent information.

23. 2022-08-09
    listed $89,900 Active 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Great investment opportunity, and located only thirty minutes away from David Crockett State Park. This is a beautiful brick house with inviting front farmer's porch and spacious 1.20 acre lot. Buyer to verify all pertinent information.

24. 2020-10-07
    soldstatus $75,000
25. 2020-03-20
    soldstatus $27,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $779 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,030 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$251/yr (+$21/mo · 32.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$779
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,000
• − Management: −$1,000
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$3,348
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$803
• After-tax cash flow: $47/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayne County
• NCES district ID: 4704440
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $34,215
• Composite: 11.79/100
• National rank: #9681
• State rank: #130 of 139 in TN

Livability — Waynesboro

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #18478

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waynesboro, TN
• Population (ZIP): 6,120

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,256 people
• By 2030: 15,921 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 15,248 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 14,393 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 12,481 · -23.2%
• By 2100: 10,466 · -35.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.9) · D 11.2% · R 88.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.7pp toward R · 2008: -49.2pp · 2024: -76.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.9 2020: R+74.6 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+56.3 2008: R+49.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 59.82%
• Current HPI: 369.1289
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+437.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Listed $145,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Coming Soon $145,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 2022-09-12 Sold (MLS) $79,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-25 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-09 Listed $89,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2020-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $779 · +18.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.