529 Poplar St · Italy, TX 76651

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 928 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 152 Days on market

Built 1950 0.27 ac lot $92/sqft · 50% below area Est $169k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR SPECIAL! Opportunity knocks with this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home situated on a generous 0.269-acre lot. Add this property to your investment portfolio, this property has solid potential. Located in a prime area with close proximity to schools, and offering easy access to Hwy 77 and I-35, commuting and daily essentials are a breeze. Home may need to be torn down, but all utilities are in place. With many new construction homes in the area upwards of $300,000, you don’t want to miss out on this valuable opportunity!

Key facts

• 0.269-acre lot
• Easy access to i-35
• 0.27 acre lot

Tags

• 0.269-ACRE LOT
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SCHOOLS
• EASY ACCESS TO HWY 77
• EASY ACCESS TO I-35
• UTILITIES ARE IN PLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 2.7% in Italy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#224 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Italy ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #544 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.14%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,921
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -49.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
332 Harris St	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	983 (+6%)	8mo	$90,000	$92	63
108 White St	0.63mi	2/1.0	952 (+3%)	8mo	$189,000	$199	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.02×
• Total profit: $71,825
• Equity at exit: $76,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.05×
• Total profit: $191,697
• Equity at exit: $165,136

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76651

• Home prices YoY: 11.3%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,399 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,700/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $894

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
472 Clark St Unit 472 Italy, TX	3.0	2.0	1055	$1,450	$1.37	10d	1	0.15mi
462 Derrs Chapel Rd Italy, TX	2.0	2.0	963	$1,300	$1.35	1d	1	0.63mi
462 Derrs Chapel Rd Italy, TX	2.0	2.0	963	$1,300	$1.35	14d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $85,000 Pending 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $85,000 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $85,000 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $85,000 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-05-18
    historical Active Option Contract 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL! Opportunity knocks with this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home situated on a generous 0.269-acre lot. Add this property to your investment portfolio, this property has solid potential. Located in a prime area with close proximity to schools, and offering easy access to Hwy 77 and I-35, commuting and daily essentials are a breeze. Home may need to be torn down, but all utilities are in place. With many new construction homes in the area upwards of $300,000, you don’t want to miss out on this valuable opportunity!

11. 2026-04-29
    status Active 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL! Opportunity knocks with this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home situated on a generous 0.269-acre lot. Add this property to your investment portfolio, this property has solid potential. Located in a prime area with close proximity to schools, and offering easy access to Hwy 77 and I-35, commuting and daily essentials are a breeze. Home may need to be torn down, but all utilities are in place. With many new construction homes in the area upwards of $300,000, you don’t want to miss out on this valuable opportunity!

12. 2026-04-27
    historical Active Option Contract 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL! Opportunity knocks with this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home situated on a generous 0.269-acre lot. Add this property to your investment portfolio, this property has solid potential. Located in a prime area with close proximity to schools, and offering easy access to Hwy 77 and I-35, commuting and daily essentials are a breeze. Home may need to be torn down, but all utilities are in place. With many new construction homes in the area upwards of $300,000, you don’t want to miss out on this valuable opportunity!

13. 2026-01-08
    listed $85,000 Active 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    INVESTOR SPECIAL! Opportunity knocks with this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home situated on a generous 0.269-acre lot. Add this property to your investment portfolio, this property has solid potential. Located in a prime area with close proximity to schools, and offering easy access to Hwy 77 and I-35, commuting and daily essentials are a breeze. Home may need to be torn down, but all utilities are in place. With many new construction homes in the area upwards of $300,000, you don’t want to miss out on this valuable opportunity!

14. 2019-09-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,700 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,700 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,793
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$2,700
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,343
• − Management: −$1,343
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $3,747
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$899
• After-tax cash flow: $3,893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Italy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824450
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,650
• Composite: 28.86/100
• National rank: #6644
• State rank: #544 of 826 in TX

Livability — Italy

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #5516

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Italy, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,071

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 32.46%
• Current HPI: 319.195
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-29 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-27 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $85,000 NTREIS
• 2019-09-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,700 · +18.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.