13 Stonefly Cir · Lake Wales, FL 33898

$80,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 348 sqft · Manufactured public records · 645 Days on market

Built 1977 4,713 sqft lot $226/mo HOA · 20% of rent ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PACKAGE SALE: The owner wants to sell his 2 properties, this home and 20 Woodruff Way in SADDLEBAG RESORT (K4902624) Buying both Properties means the owner would allow a very deep discount to facilitate a quick sale. . This TURNKEY 1/1 is fully furnished and ready to move in. All appliances in good working order. Saddlebag Resort is a 55+ community featuring a giant pool and spa, separate rec building with beautiful pool tables. A dog park, golf driving range, boat ramp, tennis and pickle ball courts, Professional grade shuffleboard courts, fitness center, horse shoe pits, a large lake front Pavilion furnished with tables and chairs, ( reserve this facility for your club events or for fa

Key facts

• 6x8 shed
• Newer hvac
• 4,713 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEWER HVAC
• 6X8 SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No homestead; PUD zoning; Lease restrictions not indicated
• Financial info: Monthly HOA approximately $226.67 (quarterly fee $680); Total annual fees listed as $2,720
• HOA & community: Part of Saddlebag Lake Owners association; Quarterly association fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, laundry, storage, gated access; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs with limits)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Security: Gated community (community gate access)
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Single-story; East-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Other roof; Concrete perimeter foundation with crawlspace; Estimated building area ~850 square feet
• Exterior features: Enclosed rear porch / Florida room; Shade shutters; Shed(s); Mature landscaping; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Microwave; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Dining area; Thermostat; Window treatments (drapes, shutters)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Dryer hookup (electric)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $110 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#535 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 500 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 645 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 645 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.92%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-5,783
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $4,610
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33898

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 500
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,103 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $982/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$226
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $963

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $156	-5% $133	+0% $110	+5% $88	+10% $65
Rent	-10% $23	-5% $67	+0% $110	+5% $154	+10% $198
Rate	-1.0pp $151	-0.5pp $131	base $110	+0.5pp $90	+1.0pp $69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $226 · $2,712/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 645 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 644 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 643 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 642 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 640 DOM
6. 2026-04-17
   price $80,000
7. 2025-10-22
   price $100,000
8. 2025-06-07
   status Active
9. 2025-05-31
   historical
10. 2025-01-25
    price $109,000
11. 2025-01-02
    status Active
12. 2024-12-31
    historical
13. 2024-08-21
    listed $112,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $982 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $982 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,233
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$982
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,059
• − Management: −$1,059
• − HOA: −$2,712
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $213
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$51
• After-tax cash flow: $1,274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Wales

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 30,351
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,527
• Household income: $57,224
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 148.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.62%
• Current HPI: 340.6056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-28.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-25 Price Changed $109,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-21 Listed $112,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $982 · +20.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.