18433 Novarra Dr · Grangerland, TX 77306

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Land · 58 Days on market

Built 2025 0.29 ac lot $148/sqft · 14% below area Est $233k · 14% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 18433 Novarra—an inviting single-story home designed for both everyday living and easy entertaining. Welcoming entry that opens into a spacious living area, complete with additional sitting space perfect for a reading nook, home office, or play area.The open-concept kitchen is the heart of the home, features a large granite island, tile backsplash, and plenty of prep space for cooking and gathering. Off the kitchen, you’ll find a laundry area for added functionality. The private primary suite is tucked away at the back of the home and offers a tray ceiling, generously sized ensuite bath with double sinks, a soaking tub, and a separate shower for a relaxing retreat.On the opposite side of the home, two additional bedrooms and a spacious secondary bath. Step outside to a large covered carport area,perfect for parking, entertaining, or creating your own outdoor hangout space. All this on a generously sized lot. Schedule your showing today—this one is easy to love!

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Open-concept kitchen
• Large granite island

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LARGE GRANITE ISLAND
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $200k implies a 260% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $173,962 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.39%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,676
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -14.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-22,421
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-6,874
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,740 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $806/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,540

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17980 Farm to Market Road 2090 Unit 2090 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	982	$1,850	$1.88	43d	1	0.65mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $200,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,900 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,900 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $219,900 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-04-21
    price $219,900

    Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

    Welcome to 18433 Novarra—an inviting single-story home designed for both everyday living and easy entertaining. Welcoming entry that opens into a spacious living area, complete with additional sitting space perfect for a reading nook, home office, or play area.The open-concept kitchen is the heart of the home, features a large granite island, tile backsplash, and plenty of prep space for cooking and gathering. Off the kitchen, you’ll find a laundry area for added functionality. The private primary suite is tucked away at the back of the home and offers a tray ceiling, generously sized ensuite bath with double sinks, a soaking tub, and a separate shower for a relaxing retreat.On the opposite side of the home, two additional bedrooms and a spacious secondary bath. Step outside to a large covered carport area,perfect for parking, entertaining, or creating your own outdoor hangout space. All this on a generously sized lot. Schedule your showing today—this one is easy to love!

15. 2026-04-21
    historical

    Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

    Welcome to 18433 Novarra—an inviting single-story home designed for both everyday living and easy entertaining. Welcoming entry that opens into a spacious living area, complete with additional sitting space perfect for a reading nook, home office, or play area.The open-concept kitchen is the heart of the home, features a large granite island, tile backsplash, and plenty of prep space for cooking and gathering. Off the kitchen, you’ll find a laundry area for added functionality. The private primary suite is tucked away at the back of the home and offers a tray ceiling, generously sized ensuite bath with double sinks, a soaking tub, and a separate shower for a relaxing retreat.On the opposite side of the home, two additional bedrooms and a spacious secondary bath. Step outside to a large covered carport area,perfect for parking, entertaining, or creating your own outdoor hangout space. All this on a generously sized lot. Schedule your showing today—this one is easy to love!

16. 2026-04-21
    listed $219,900 Active 1004-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

    Welcome to 18433 Novarra—an inviting single-story home designed for both everyday living and easy entertaining. Welcoming entry that opens into a spacious living area, complete with additional sitting space perfect for a reading nook, home office, or play area.The open-concept kitchen is the heart of the home, features a large granite island, tile backsplash, and plenty of prep space for cooking and gathering. Off the kitchen, you’ll find a laundry area for added functionality. The private primary suite is tucked away at the back of the home and offers a tray ceiling, generously sized ensuite bath with double sinks, a soaking tub, and a separate shower for a relaxing retreat.On the opposite side of the home, two additional bedrooms and a spacious secondary bath. Step outside to a large covered carport area,perfect for parking, entertaining, or creating your own outdoor hangout space. All this on a generously sized lot. Schedule your showing today—this one is easy to love!

17. 2025-10-22
    listed $225,000 Active
18. 2025-07-16
    soldstatus
19. 2025-06-03
    soldstatus $55,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $806 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,854/yr (+$238/mo · 354.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$806
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,670
• − Management: −$1,670
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,496
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$359
• After-tax cash flow: $2,255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+295.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-22 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $55,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $806 · +19.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.