4603 Balfour Rd #47 · Brentwood, CA 94513

$239,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · Manufactured · 23 Days on market

Built 2015 Est $236k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into relaxation in this beautiful and modern 3-bedroom, 2-bath home, perfectly situated in the desirable Woodgate Community for residents ages 55 and up! Built in 2015 and featuring a light and airy open floor plan, neutral color palette, and updated laminate flooring throughout, this home makes the most of its space with thoughtful design and modern touches. Natural light pours in, enhancing the fresh color scheme and creating an inviting atmosphere. Located in a prime spot within the community, you’ll enjoy access to the sparkling pool, well-maintained grounds, and a welcoming 55+ lifestyle. Move-in ready and full of charm—this is your chance to enjoy easy living in Woodg

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Community pool
• Built 2015

Tags

• WELL-MAINTAINED GROUNDS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• UPDATED LAMINATE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Manufactured in park; 2 mobile homes on 1 lot
• HOA & community: Woodgate Park community; Clubhouse; Greenbelt; Pool; Senior community; Pets allowed (dogs and cats; call for details)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Mobile home (double wide); Faces west
• Construction: Masonite exterior; Model: CreeksideManor
• Exterior features: Back yard; Side yard; Community in-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast bar; Laminate counters; Dishwasher; Gas range / cooktop; Microwave; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Updated baths; Shower over tub
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Pantry; Dining area; Double pane windows; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Gas dryer hookup; Washer/dryer hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $239k).
• Recommended offer: $235k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 2.7% in Brentwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#525 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Brentwood Union Elementary (suburban): math 51% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #268 of 1,400 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $200k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,415 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.23%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,960
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4603 Balfour Rd #83	0.01mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,392 (+0%)	6mo	$151,499	$109	89
4603 Balfour Rd #11	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,345 (-3%)	4mo	$235,000	$175	86
3660 Walnut Blvd #40	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+4%)	7mo	$245,000	$170	82
3660 Walnut Blvd #46	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,346 (-3%)	7mo	$172,500	$128	79
4603 Balfour #29	0.01mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+4%)	12mo	$200,000	$139	78
4603 Balfour Rd #68	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,493 (+8%)	13mo	$226,500	$152	77
4603 Balfour Rd Trlr 4	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-10%)	2mo	$160,000	$128	76
3660 Walnut Blvd #34	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,346 (-3%)	13mo	$255,000	$189	74
4603 Balfour Rd #97	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,554 (+12%)	9mo	$269,900	$174	72
3660 Walnut Blvd #18	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,192 (-14%)	1mo	$260,000	$218	70
3660 Walnut Blvd #53	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+11%)	10mo	$260,000	$169	68
3660 Walnut Blvd #57	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,251 (-10%)	10mo	$235,000	$188	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $55,222
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $192,772
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94513

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,493 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $662/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$734
• Net cashflow: $1,351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,782

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18 Canterbury Ct Brentwood, CA	3.0	2.0	1480	$3,200	$2.16	1d	1	0.53mi
128 Kingfisher St Brentwood, CA	3.0	2.5	1667	$2,990	$1.79	10d	1	0.93mi
1275 Central Blvd Brentwood, CA	3.0	2.0	1050	$3,650	$3.48	10d	1	0.95mi
720 Winding Creek Ter Brentwood, CA	3.0	2.5	1531	$2,900	$1.89	10d	1	1.12mi
955 Bighorn Ter Brentwood, CA	3.0	2.5	1531	$3,400	$2.22	19d	1	1.23mi
1015 Dellwood Ct Brentwood, CA	3.0	3.0	1645	$3,200	$1.95	23d	1	1.23mi
1290 Business Center Dr Brentwood, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	973	$3,380	$3.47	1d	7	1.29mi
1100 Twinbridge Ct Brentwood, CA	3.0	2.5	1158	$3,250	$2.81	1d	1	1.32mi
1377 Reagan Way Brentwood, CA	3.0	2.5	1573	$3,100	$1.97	1d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $239,000 Pending 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $239,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $239,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $239,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $239,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $239,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-05-19
    historical
11. 2026-05-19
    listed $239,000 Active
12. 2026-05-12
    status Active
13. 2026-02-04
    status Pending
14. 2026-01-07
    price
15. 2025-12-04
    historical
16. 2025-12-03
    listed Active
17. 2025-06-13
    listed Active
18. 2015-04-07
    soldstatus $199,900 Sold
19. 2014-06-16
    listed $199,900 New
20. 2008-01-30
    historical
21. 2005-11-07
    soldstatus $41,000
22. 2005-11-01
    historical
23. 2005-05-25
    listed $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $662 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,816 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,155/yr (+$96/mo · 174.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 59% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,916
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$662
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,353
• − Management: −$3,353
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable income: $13,013
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,123
• After-tax cash flow: $13,094/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brentwood Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0605910
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $91,644
• Composite: 52.7/100
• National rank: #3320
• State rank: #268 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Brentwood

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #525
• US rank: #17696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brentwood, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 69,755
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 69,755
• Household income: $142,223
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1056.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 25% Asian 16% Two or more races 14% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Russian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 5% Tagalog/Filipino 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -245.60%
• Current HPI: 249.5513
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.22%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+443.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-19 Listed $239,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-12 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-04 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-04 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-03 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-06-13 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-04-07 Sold (MLS) $199,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2014-06-16 Listed $199,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2008-01-30 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2005-11-07 Sold (MLS) $41,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2005-11-01 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2005-05-25 Listed $44,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $662 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.