Willow 1872 S Plan · Liberty Hill, TX 78628

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,846 sqft · SingleFamily · 154 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-5 bedroom homes in MorningStar, Georgetown, TX with resort-style amenities, top-rated schools, and scenic greenbelts. Priced from the mid $300s.

Key facts

• Scenic greenbelts
• Top-rated schools
• Listed 154 days

Tags

• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• TOP-RATED SCHOOLS
• SCENIC GREENBELTS

🏗️ New construction. The $300,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $389,154.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-902 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (13.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.8% in Liberty Hill — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#495 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Liberty Hill ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #160 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1578 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,267 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.93%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $389,154
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -22.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
136 Vickers St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+0%)	1mo	$299,000	$162	92
1036 View Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,772 (-4%)	0mo	$345,000	$195	78
100 Vickers St	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,881 (+2%)	2mo	$365,000	$194	76
152 Mason Hill Ln	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,872 (+1%)	1mo	$309,900	$166	73
308 Morning Ridge Ct	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,601 (-13%)	0mo	$345,000	$215	68
301 Banyon Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,889 (+2%)	1mo	$350,000	$185	65
221 Banyon Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,883 (+2%)	4mo	$350,000	$186	62
431 Dipprey Ln	0.34mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,025 (+10%)	1mo	$388,000	$192	60
117 Red Cedar Ct	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,120 (+15%)	2mo	$350,000	$165	49
208 Morning Tide Dr	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,981 (+7%)	5mo	$360,115	$182	48
725 Sun Grove Trl	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,981 (+7%)	6mo	$394,990	$199	48
824 Sun Grove Trl	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,981 (+7%)	6mo	$344,990	$174	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-127,095
• Equity at exit: $58,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -77.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.93×
• Total profit: $-210,121
• Equity at exit: $33,647

Cash invested: $108,963 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78628

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1578
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,263 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,041
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$486 /mo · $5,837/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-902

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,404

Max offer price $258,657

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,288
• Closing costs: $11,675
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
124 Stellar Wind Dr Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,200	$1.28	17d	1	0.09mi
128 Kavanaugh St Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.0	1782	$2,250	$1.26	43d	1	0.14mi
112 Greenway Dr Andice, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,895	$1.53	43d	1	0.22mi
125 Sun Grove Trl Georgetown, TX	4.0	3.0	2043	$2,150	$1.05	43d	1	0.23mi
201 Morningstar Blvd Georgetown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1209	$2,899	$2.40	1d	38	0.24mi
213 Ethan Run Georgetown, TX	4.0	3.0	2043	$2,099	$1.03	4d	1	0.30mi
105 Tucana St Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.5	2120	$2,100	$0.99	23d	1	0.31mi
120 Serpens St Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.5	2403	$2,299	$0.96	43d	1	0.36mi
201 McFarland St Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,950	$1.39	43d	1	0.37mi
2101 Kauffman Loop Georgetown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$2,139	$1.99	3d	55	0.37mi
148 Los Olives Ln Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	2.5	1873	$2,499	$1.33	43d	1	0.39mi
135 Mason Hill Ln Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.5	2072	$2,250	$1.09	17d	1	0.41mi
252 Los Olives Ln Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.5	1621	$2,399	$1.48	43d	1	0.41mi
300 Bright Star Ln Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	2028	$2,199	$1.08	17d	1	0.43mi
421 Mira Mesa Dr Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$2,149	$1.55	43d	1	0.46mi
424 Los Olives Ln Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.0	1752	$2,585	$1.48	43d	1	0.48mi
408 Los Olives Ln Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.5	1621	$2,399	$1.48	17d	1	0.48mi
440 Los Olives Ln Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	2.5	1752	$2,485	$1.42	43d	1	0.50mi
320 Mira Mesa Dr Liberty Hill, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1627	$2,299	$1.41	2d	19	0.51mi
623 Sun Grove Trl Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,949	$1.37	43d	1	0.51mi
541 Pickrell Loop Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.5	2379	$2,495	$1.05	23d	1	0.52mi
541 Pickrell Loop Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.5	2379	$2,495	$1.05	43d	1	0.52mi
500 Los Olives Ln Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$2,299	$1.66	43d	1	0.53mi
248 Falling Star Ln Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	2046	$2,275	$1.11	4d	1	0.59mi
248 Falling Star Ln Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	2046	$2,295	$1.12	43d	1	0.59mi
252 Falling Star Ln Georgetown, TX	3.0	3.0	2452	$2,295	$0.94	17d	1	0.59mi
417 Bright Star Ln Georgetown, TX	3.0	3.0	2339	$2,200	$0.94	17d	1	0.60mi
544 View Dr Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.5	2053	$2,250	$1.10	23d	1	0.62mi
544 View Dr Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.5	2053	$2,250	$1.10	43d	1	0.62mi
209 Winding Hollow Ln Georgetown, TX	4.0	3.0	2342	$2,495	$1.07	43d	1	0.65mi
183 Alicante Ln Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,575	$1.07	43d	1	0.66mi
120 Oakstone Dr Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1648	$2,050	$1.24	17d	1	0.70mi
384 Gaida Loop Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$1,845	$1.05	21d	1	0.77mi
384 Gaida Loop Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$1,895	$1.07	23d	1	0.77mi
236 Oakstone Dr Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.5	1977	$2,100	$1.06	43d	1	0.79mi
393 Gaida Loop Unit NA Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1950	$2,100	$1.08	43d	1	0.80mi
105 Martino Trl Georgetown, TX	3.0	3.0	2336	$2,495	$1.07	1d	1	0.84mi
108 Bennington Dr Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.5	2477	$2,250	$0.91	4d	1	0.84mi
105 Auburn Cv Georgetown, TX	4.0	3.0	2496	$2,600	$1.04	1d	1	0.84mi
112 Bennington Dr Liberty Hill, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,100	$1.35	43d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $300,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $300,000 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $300,000 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $300,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $300,000 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $300,000 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-01-07
   listed $300,000 Active 146-char remark

   Show marketing remark (146 chars)

   3-5 bedroom homes in MorningStar, Georgetown, TX with resort-style amenities, top-rated schools, and scenic greenbelts. Priced from the mid $300s.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,152
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,799
• − Property taxes: −$5,837
• − Insurance: −$1,946
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,172
• − Management: −$2,172
• − Depreciation: −$11,321
• Taxable loss: −$18,095
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,343
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827420
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $81,084
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2965
• State rank: #160 of 826 in TX

Livability — Liberty Hill

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #495
• US rank: #9892

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 26,434
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 50,822
• Household income: $125,635
• Rent vs Own: 24.5% rent · 75.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1560.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Asian 4% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -439.68%
• Current HPI: 192.7561
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.07%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Listed $300,000 Zillow